A Saturday Afternoon Horse

"Luck", Lasix and 42 & Change...

2012-02-04T11:41:00.000-05:00

OK, don’t be looking for the fastest half mile of the day, the 42 and change is what Wewoka Switch paid in breaking his maiden yesterday in the 8th at Gulfstream. A blog favorite, the son of Harlan’s Holiday, dropped and popped with the addition of blinkers in a much improved effort. The race was originally scheduled for the turf, and I hope the connections continue down that path. Congrats to Nick Zito and Dream Walkin’ Farms. It was a Red Solo Cup performance.

I was late to the “Luck Party” but watched 2 hours back- to- back Thursday night. Great casting, pretty good acting, with a script chock full of backstretch and grandstand vernacular. However, it does highlight the dark side of racing, with its various broken-down bust-out characters. Who would want to visit a racetrack if they thought they would run into any of these losers? Here’s a suggestion. If the writers of “Luck” are only going to focus on the down and out, could they please inject a little humor, at least?

Maybe it’s too early to tell, but “Luck” won’t do much for racing except tarnish our rich and beautiful sport.

TVG ‘s Round Table last night was a chat about Medications in Racing, which quickly turned into taking sides on Lasix. Most of the participants were knowledgeable and respective members of the Racing Community. (I said most)
There are definitely two distinct views on the issue. I know where I stand. You have to do what’s in the best interest of the horse’s health and welfare. Period. If the public perception is skewed, then it is the industry’s job to educate the public. Like for instance, it is a huge misconception that medication (like Bute and Lasix) is not used in Europe and other countries. But in fact, it is used frequently in training, up to a race.

Nice racing around the country today, including Tampa Bay. I like Game Drive in the third, on the lawn in the Opt claiming $75,000, NW x1. And Keertana is returning in the Grade 3 Endeavor S.

Setsuko, in the 10th at Santa Anita, has been a horse that I have always liked, but who has been a big disappointment. He has now been gelded. I look for a turnaround here.

Sunday at Gulfstream

2012-01-29T11:51:00.000-05:00

It’s an interesting day in Hallandale, with the return of Hansen the 2011 two year old champ in the Grade 3, 1 mile Holy Bull Stakes.

The white flash has had his own way in his short, yet illustrious career. He is a dual surface winner on both poly and dirt and is making his first start as a three year old in this Derby prep.

And it won’t be easy. I am in the Consortium consortium. This Bernadini colt looks to be progressing nicely, will be getting first time Lasix. He is getting 6 lbs from Hansen too. I think he still has some move forward and I think he and Algorithms (with both having a wins over the track) will give the champ all he can handle.

In the Forward Gal, I like Say A Novena. She is adding blinkers, has a recent bullet (with blinks on?) has a good outside draw, and I love the breeding. Kind of close to home, I follow all the quick Songandaprayers as my dad found his dam, Alizia. ( Premiership) Speed over the stamina Dynaformer line, is always dangerous. She should turn the tables on Sacristy. And it is SUNDAY. Maybe another holy exacta.

Back it up to the 8th race, a maiden event for fillies on turf. While the Graham Motion filly (Coup) will take all the dough, and she should, I look for an improvement with Spinning Wildcat. The half to War Chant out of the Champion mare, Hollywood Wildcat looks to have some talent. Though J Lep opted for Coup, Spinning Wildcat gets leading rider Castellano.

Maybe Moonstock in the 4th? Off the layoff, maybe Mott has this horse figured out. None of the others seem to want to win.
Hope it’s a Lucky day!

Sunshine Millions Turf

2012-01-27T19:34:00.000-05:00

This year, the Sunshine Millions is an all-Florida Affair. In years past, the day was split between Santa Anita and Gulfstream, where races were restricted to Cal-breds and Florida- breds. This year the West Coast will participate only in the Sunshine Millions “Luck” Pick 6 wager, celebrating the Monday night premier of the HBO series. But the $ 1.3 million dollars in purses will be distributed in six races at Gulfstream only.

The race I will focus on for ThoroFan's Handicapper's Corner is the $150,000 Turf at a 1 & 1/8 for 3 years old and up. It is Leg C of the “Luck” Pick Six. There are 11 entered, and there is a 40% chance of rain.

Slew’s Answer is a very well-bred (½ to Dynaslew) lightly raced 5 year old with top notch connections. He is coming off a 10 week freshening. He is working well for his return. Likes the distance, has a win and a second over the course and could fit very well with these.

Livingston Street, though a nice horse, seems a cut below these. Biggest knock is 14 starts on the Gulfstream lawn, with no wins. Can’t recommend.

Bad Debt – anytime you have a horse that has 10 wins from 26 starts you have to take a second look. Yes, he is stepping up and maybe he can’t win, this horse never, ever throws in a clunker.

Bell by the Ridge – yes I know, Castellano & Maker and he does have a nice late kick, but I don’t think he’s good enough.

Little Mike- the only thing I am sure of is that Joe Bravo will send Little Mike to the lead. He is fast and that’s the way he runs. But what will he fold the last part of it? Only one start at the distance and he faltered. Should we overlook it because it was a Grade 1?

Beckham Bend is another 7 year old with not many starts. If you throw out the mile and a half Pan American, he has a pretty nice form. And he had a tightener a month ago.

Allie’s Event is another check getter, and interestingly enough has never run with statebreds. But he has never won at the distance.

Stay Red is eligible for non winners of 3, and can’t see anything to like.

Blazen is a question mark. He has shown some talent on occasion and has had a number of troubled trips. With the right trip, might get a piece.And he has an extra 1/8 of a mile to get out of any trouble he finds himself in.

Teaks North is the only Grade 1 stakes winner in the field. And he has John Velazquez in the irons. A million plus earner, he has faced much better. He had a tightener just 14 days ago, his first race back after the Breeder’s Cup Turf. If he runs back to his winning style of last year, he should run down the speed. But are his glory days behind him?

Roman Tiger also eligible for NW3x, looks overmatched to me.

There is no doubt that Little Mike could take this field wire to wire .He will be playing come and catch me. If he falters late, Slew’s Answer, Teaks North and Bad Debt will be coming late.

Blazen is a wild card, and could light up the tote board.

Watch the weather for any change in the turf course, check out the post parade for how the horses are acting and moving, and as always, I hope some “Luck” comes your way.

Bring on the Beignets!

2012-01-21T11:25:00.000-05:00

Having the first major snow event of the season here in the northeast and the Big A has cancelled, but the racing at the ’Stream and Fair Grounds will be more than enough to keep all handicappers in pursuit of moneymaking opportunities.

The card in New Orleans is the most interesting to me, with the LeComte for newly turned three year olds and thus a prep for the Louisiana Derby.
So grab a beignet or a doughboy or a doughdaddy donut, and let’s take a look at the Grade 3 Lacomte.

First, the Dorochenko entry is not at all interesting to me. I would be shocked if either one hits the board.

Let’s move on.

The 2 & 2a is the Zayat entry, with Pletcher training the second time starter Dan and Sheila and Asmussen training, the other half, Z Dager. Both horses are stepping up from their maiden scores. Castellano stays in Florida, Johnny V picks up the mount on Dan and Sheila who has had 3 nice works, including a bullet since his score from the 10 hole in December. Z Dager loses Lanerie (to the undefeated Capetown Devil) and picks up Sellers, who is having a good meet. Both horses are conditioned by trainers who know where to spot their horses.

Ted’s Folly…read his story, written by Eclipse Award winning Jennie Rees in the Louisville Courier...
Looking for his 7th win in a row, this little horse knows how to find the winner’s circle. He has broken from inside, outside, but always has a great turn of foot from the top of the stretch to the wire. The long FG stretch will be good for him, and though he is stepping up….in a sense, so are all the others in here. He’s taking his jock with him, and how can you not bank on the fact that this horse will come running in the end?

Mr. Bowling, the Gov’s homebred, is coming off a layoff. He showed promise last year and is working very well for his return. He has definite grow up potential.

After some “slight stall injury” this week, Exfactor is scheduled to run. Not sure if he kicked the wall, got cast, but I guess he’s good to go. Definitely a talented horse, he has current form as he is coming off a win in December.

Seven Lively Sins is trained by the newly elected Fair Grounds Hall of Famer, Al Stall. His only win came on synthetic. A speedy sort, he has Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.

Can’t say much about Alexander Thegreat. Another one that would shock me if he wins.

Hammers Terror is an interesting sort. He is a nose shy of 3 for 3, and is a dual surface winner. Drew off smartly in his allowance win at Fair grounds, and has worked 4 times since then, including a bullet. Has been “rushed” has been “wide” and has “stalked”. I like a horse that has still managed to run big, no matter what is thrown at him. And at 6-1, I like him a lot.

The Coach has a horse in here, who finally got his diploma 7 days ago at Oaklawn Park after an overly ambitious 2 year old campaign. Nicely bred horse, but can’t back in here, on such a short turn around.

Very similar form to Hammer’s Terror, is Capetown Devil. Undefeated, 3 for 3, dual surface winner and a recent win over the track. I’m not worried that he broke his maiden for 30. He is a homebred and I think they just took a chance at an easy score. Had trouble in his last, which caused him to be farther back than usual, and he still managed to get up for the win. And the jock stays. Another to like a lot.

No doubt that Shared Property should be the favorite, just judging by the company he kept last year. He and Exfactor are the only graded stakes winners in the race. Lots of grow up potential if he’s ready off the layoff.

Lots to like in here and any selections should be made after a look at the paddock and post parade. There is a 30% chance of rain, so watch the weather as well.

Good luck if you are wagering today.

Work of the Week…..Shackleford…yesterday…58:63 /1:11.22 / galloped out 7/8ths in 1:25
Can’t wait for his return!

The Ft. Lauderdale

2012-01-14T12:36:00.000-05:00

While it would be nice to actually be on a beach somewhere near Ft. Lauderdale, I am wondering just how cold it’s going to get in the next few days here in New England .For some of us, it’s a 3 day weekend. And as a horseplayer, well yes, I too, have a dream. (Well a number of them really). But who doesn’t dream of hitting a big one???

Not totally prepared on going into 3 days of wagering, but I am working on it.

I’ve taken a look at the Grade 3 Ft. Lauderdale, the 10th race on the Saturday card. It is a 1&1/16 turf event and here are my thoughts.

Mutual Trust is a newly turned 4 year old Juddmonte homebred. He is a group 1 winner in France and he is coming off a 5 month layoff. He is getting first time Lasix, and has been prepping well over the deep Payson Park surface. It’s a new distance for him, but I doubt that will be an issue. Will he like the hard and fast Gulfstream strip?

Flat Out is a Grade 1 winner and an earner of a million plus. He has run with the best of them in 2011, including a 3 length loss in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. He has never raced on grass, though he has worked on it twice. This is not a bad spot for him to try it out and should he take to it he could be tough.

Silver Medallion is in great form, and it doesn’t hurt when the Pletcher barn is hitting on all cylinders (36%). Guys Reward is an old friend and is as consistent as they come. He was given a freshener and had a good race back. With that as a tightener, he is a horse that you cannot leave out of any exotics. He always fires.

And what to do with Hoofit? At first glance, he doesn’t look like he measures up, but the connections did think enough of him to run in the BC Grass Sprint, where he had a rough trip.

My “light up the tote board bomb” in here is Kindergarden Kid. I think this horse has improved a lot since being gelded. Maybe the best bred horse in the race, the Dynaformers can improve as they get older. He is versatile enough in his running style, but also has some tactical speed. I cannot ignore those bullets in the am .Will the 12 hole hurt? Will J. Lep help?

I will be looking to the post parade for any late clues in another puzzle of a turf race at Gulfstream. Hope you have a dream come true kind of gambling day!

Looking Back -2011

2011-12-29T21:04:00.000-05:00

I’m taking a look back with appreciation to some of the bloggers that I have enjoyed this past year. I really value those who make the effort to keep up their posts, because it’s not always easy to do. I know very well, no matter how passionate you are about it, keeping a blog current, takes time and commitment.

So I am giving a “shout out” to:

The Knight Sky- Thanks Norm for turning me on to Rapid Redux. I had never heard of him till I read your post, many months ago. He’s in a zip code of his own. And your weekly contests are the Best!

Equispace – Geno, your top ten lists are beyond compare. And I can’t tell you how many times your posts have reminded me of a contest I shouldn’t miss. Thanks for continuing to include me in the Handicapper s Corner at Thoro Fan.

Twin Spires - Ed De Rosa Thank you for the Huddie connection. I had so much fun this summer with Toga Picks. But more than that, you are a wealth of information, in all things, all the time, and you have allowed your readers to get to know a different side of you lately. I hope you know how many followers are pulling for the” the little guy. ”

Turk and Little Turk – always enjoy not only your insight into your handicapping strategies, but your subtle insights on life in general.

The Track Philosopher - Maybe the Best- Best of the Year list for 2011. Thanks for your continued support.

Giving My Ten Cents – Chris Hernandez (hey where’s my Zenyatta mug??!!) I’m always amazed at what a good grasp of the racing game certain 20 something‘s have. For a young guy, Chris is very astute in his handicapping and a great source for all things west coast. .

Wire Players – Good handicappers here, I always check these guys out, looking for bits and pieces I may have missed in my handicapping analysis. Their current post is a departure, though, and spot on, I may add.

Brooklyn Backstretch – Teresa‘s writings are informative and creative.Her historical pieces always bring back memories and her current opinions are well thought out. She never seems to runs out of stories to tell. I don’t even know her, but I do know that when a “cat” horse wins, she’s smiling.

Hangin’ with Haskin- I never miss anything this man writes. He writes with soul, and has a great appreciation for the racing game.

Blogs are as unique as the person that writes them. Their words can inform you, make you think, or just make you chuckle.
Thanks, all, for the inspiration and all the good writing. I look ahead for more of the same in 2012.

I had intended to give you links to each of these blogs, but Blogger is being a little cranky at the moment. Just look to the right hand column and you will see their latest posts.

Merry Christmas

2011-12-24T18:59:00.000-05:00

I would like to wish all my Twitter friends and Blog readers a very Merry Christmas. Enjoy the magic of the season!

A Horse's Christmas Fable -1967

2011-12-21T18:17:00.000-05:00

From the vault of the Thoroughbred Record, this lovely story was written by the late David Alexander, 44 years ago. It was awarded the TRA's award for the best thoroughbred racing article of that year.

The old gray horse sidled up to the pasture fence with little dancing steps. The place seemed familiar, yet somehow strange.
The grass was greener than any grass he'd ever seen, and when he looked closely at the white paddock gate it had a kind of pearly sheen. and there was another funny thing. A big, black cloud hovered just inside the gate. The cloud wasn't up in the sky where it properly belonged. It was like a great puff of black smoke rising from the grass.

Suddenly the cloud dissolved and revealed a horse. He was a small chestnut with a blunt head and one white stocking and brownish hairs in his tail and mane. The gray horse thought he had a kind of old timely look to him.

"Hello, old gray horse," the chestnut from the black cloud said. "Hey, that's a real good trick!" the gray horse exclaimed. "Where'd you learn it?"

The chestnut disappeared into the cloud again, but emerged immediately. "Learned it the day I was born," he replied, with a whinny that sounded like a chuckle. "You see, I was born on April Fool's Day and there was a total eclipse of the sun. So they named me Eclipse. I was always playing tricks on people too. Used to kick my grooms and try to throw my riders and I bit the auctioneer that sold me."

"My name is..." the old gray horse started to say politely, but the tricky chestnut ducked in and out of his cloud and
interrupted rudely. "Native Dancer," he said. "I ought to know you. I'm your great-great-great-great-great - I always lose count of the 'greats' 'a?" but anyway, you're a descendant of mine… almost everybody is, in fact. The Thoroughbreds, that is."

"Are you the gatekeeper?" Native Dancer asked.
"Mostly," Eclipse replied. "I'm on duty whenever one of my descendants is coming up. That's mostly so far as the Thoroughbreds go. Old Matchem has a few left and he takes over when one's due. And poor old Herod, he's posted here occasionally, but there's not many of his male line that aren't here already."

"What is this place" Native Dancer asked. "I guess I'm kind of lost." "the Green Place," Eclipse replied. "That's what
it's called. The Green Place. Most of the horses that get lost, come here.
We have to send some back of course."

"Why?" the Dancer asked.

"Because they don't belong here, that's why. Long before I came up there was this fellow Bayard, for instance. He was a devil-horse. Belonged to an old necromancer named Malagigi and he did the devil's work. Helped that villain Aymon of Dordogne to triumph over Charlemagne, they say. and a wizard named Michael Scott had a big black beast who used to stomp his feet and set al the bells of Paris ringing. He even caused the towers of the palace to fall down one day.

The Big Guy doesn't want that kind here. But we have Jesse James' horse, and Dick Turpin's too. The Big Guy says they did nothing wrong themselves. They were just faithful to their masters, and The Big Guy thinks that's a virtue."

"Who's the Big Guy?" Native Dancer asked.

"You'll find out!" Eclipse answered airily. He lowered his muzzle and pushed the gate open. "You might as well come in. You understand you're on probation though. The Big Guy makes his decisions about new arrivals every Christmas. Let's see, it's November 16, the way you figure things down there. So you won't have long to wait anyway."

"I'll bet The Big Guy is Man O' War" Native Dancer said as he moved inside and gazed over the emerald green expanses that seemed to stretch into infinity.

Eclipse snorted. "Don't get smart, boy" he said. Then he added maliciously, "You'd lose your bet too. the way a lot of people lost their bets on you at Churchill Downs one day."

Native Dancer felt hurt, for his ancestor had touched a raw nerve. His lip tremble a bit as he replied defensively, "That Derby was the only race I ever lost."

"I never lost even one race," Eclipse said unsympathetically. "So don't get smart up here. The Big Guy doesn't want
any smart-alecks in the Green Place. Remember that."
Native Dancer was a sensitive sort. He felt as if his eyes were teary and he hoped Eclipse didn't notice. "I won 21 out of 22, and Man O'War only won 20 out of 21" he declared. "And my son Kauai King won the Kentucky Derby."

"My sons won three Derbys at Epsom" Eclipse said.
"Young Eclipse took the second running and Saltram won the fourth and Sergeant won the fifth, and I'd have won the bloomin' race myself, only they didn't run it in my time. So quit bragging. Somebody's coming and they might
overhear you and tell The Big Guy, and that would be a mark against you."

A bay horse who seemed even more old-timey than Eclipse ambled up. "Is it my time now?" he asked eagerly.
"Not yet, Herod," Eclipse answered in a kindly fashion. "Old Fig's on duty now. One of his is on the way."

"Who's Old Fig?" Native Dancer asked. "I never heard of that one."

"There's a lot of things you never heard of, boy," Eclipse replied. "His real name is Figure, but down there they called him Justin Morgan, after his owner. Here he is now."

A very small, dark bay horse with a round barrel, tiny feet, and furry fetlocks came bustling up to the gate. "OK, OK, I'll take over," he said busily. "Where is that boy? Can't stand tardiness.
I've got things to do. A load to pull, a field to plough, a race to run, a trot to trot. No time to waste. Where is that boy?"

In the weeks that followed, The Dancer met hundreds, maybe thousands, of horses. Some of them were famous, and some of them were his ancestors and a few of them were his own sons and daughters.

He met a snorting white stallion named Bucephalus who had been approved for the Green Place by The Big Guy even though he was rumored by some that he was cursed by the deadly sin of pride because he had carried a conqueror named Alexander.

He met another gray horse who limped because he had stepped on a rusty nail back home just before he became lost forever. His name was Traveller, and he was a war-horse too, in the days when a man named General Lee had owned him.

There were other soldier steeds, two of them descendants of the bustling little stallion they called Old Fig up here. One was Phil Sheridan's black Rienzi and the other horse called both Fancy and Little Sorrel who had been the mount of Stonewall Jackson.

Native Dancer found Man O' War an amiable sort despite his proud aristocratic bearing, and he grew especially fond of a bony old fellow named Exterminator, who patiently answered all but one of his questions.
He asked the question of everyone: "Who is The Big Guy?" And the answer was always the same: "Wait 'til Christmas."

He met Messenger and Hambletonian and Hindoo. He met horses that had dared the dreadful fences of the Grand National. He met a horse who stared blindly into the emerald darkness. His name was Lexington.
He met horses who had pulled circus wagons and horses who had pulled brewers' trucks and horses who had drawn man's plows over the fields of earth, and he met others who had been the mounts of kings and captains.

Always the answer to his question was the same:
"Wait 'til Christmas."

Eclipse fussed over him and kept a watchful eye on his behavior and said he neighed too much and asked too many questions.
Eclipse could not stand the thought of The Big Guy banishing one of his descendants from the Green Place. And Native Dancer did not wish to leave. He doubted he could ever find his way to Maryland again if The Big Guy disapproved of him. And the Green Place was very pleasant in all respects. The grass was lush and he met so many interesting horses.

Back home he had sometimes been troubled by nightmares, for a Dark Star haunted his dreams, but now he slept
peacefully and rarely remembered the Derby he had lost. He became nervous though, as the weeks went by and the stars grew brighter.

And finally it was time.

On a night when the skies burned with starlight all the horses gathered as near as possible to a little hillock of the vast paddock. There were hundreds, thousands, maybe millions of them, a murmuring and expectant throng that seemed to stretch over the emerald grass beneath the diamonds in the heavens.

Eclipse was very tense. He hovered over Native Dancer, whispering, "Look your best now. Be quiet and humble. The Big Guy will be here any minute."

Suddenly the vast throng was silent as the stars themselves. The Big Guy stood on the hillock in a blinding blaze of
starlight, and Native Dancer could barely contain himself. He choked back a whinny of derision and whispered to Eclipse, "Is he The Big Guy? He's so little! And he's not even a horse! What did he ever do?"

Eclipse whispered, "He's a donkey. He carried a woman heavy with child to a small town on another night when the stars were bright. It was a long, long time ago."

What's a Wewoka Switch?

2011-12-15T20:39:00.000-05:00

Well for one, it’s the name of a 2 year old maiden running Saturday in the 8^th race at Gulfstream. Trained by Nick Zito, he is owned by Dream Walkin’ Farm (Toby Keith). He is by Harlan‘s Holiday, out of the stakes placed mare, Lady Dynasty, and has had one start on a sloppy, sealed track at Churchill.

I would love TK to come up with another good horse. And I try to follow the Harlan’s Holidays. So I am curious about this colt, and even more curious about his name.

Here’s what I found, according to the website, Historically Speaking and Elyse Bruce.

“Wewoka is a small town in Oklahoma and situated at the junction of State Highway 56 and U.S. Highway 270. The town was originally located in 1849 in what was considered to be the Seminole Nation, Indian Territory (I.T.).

Not too much later, in 1895, the Choctaw, Oklahoma and Gulf Railroad (the Chicago, Rock Island and Pacific Railway after 1902) ran its line from McAlester to Oklahoma City, passing through Wewoka. They also installed side tracks.

In the early 1900s, freight would oftentimes go missing once a train had been redirected to the side tracks, and items that went missing were said to be ”lost in the Wewoka Switch.”

In the 1920s, when thousands of freight shipments destined elsewhere went missing, they were soon found hidden at the Wewoka Switch. Soon, the railroad company made it a policy to check Wewoka first whenever they were advised of a lost shipment. It got to be such a habit that soon a rubber stamp was created that read: “Search Wewoka Switch.”

It didn’t take too long before the saying became: “It’s in a Wewoka Switch” meaning that whatever or whoever was involved in questionable — possibly illegal — activities was quite obviously tangled up in a tight spot.”

A cool name for a horse and I'm going to be rooting for Wewoka Switch to run a better race. Though Zito has started the meet kind of cold, his horses usually run better after a start, Let’s hope the colt doesn’t get in a “tight spot”, or gets “ lost” in his second start. He did show some speed in his first race, but faded and was beaten 12 lengths. I’m willing to toss that effort because of the track. Zito is making a rider change to rider Joe Bravo.

About an hour later, the featured 10^th race on Saturday at Gulfstream is named the Harlan’s Holiday. Could his son, Wewoka Switch, break his maiden in the 8^th on the same day? Just for fun, I may take a shot at 15-1.

PEB is Back!

2011-12-09T18:58:00.000-05:00

The one and only PEB - Pierre Bellocq - is back.

Horseracing's #1 cartoon genius, is back at TDN, Thoroughbred Daily News. His artistic interpretations of horses, horsepeople and racing events are always timely, sometimes emotional, many times- funny- and always witty.

I have missed PEB since his departure from the Racing Form. It was always a treat to see how he portrayed special events in his own unique way. I also miss race charts, mud marks and a realistic price, but that's a story for another day.

Take a look at some of PEB's work at his website.

And Keeneland is now selling some of his prints. You can find them, here.

2012 Derby - Who Do You Like?

2011-11-29T18:59:00.000-05:00

While it’s much too early for me to be predicting the finish of the ’12 Derby, I’ll say it right now. Union Rags looks very much the part of a Classic winner.

He has the scope, he has the stride, he has the mind, he has the willingness, he has the style, he has the talent and he's got the game.

And by the deceased sire Dixie Union, out of a Gone West mare, he has ample ancestry to get the classic distance.

Yes he lost the big one on Breeder’s Cup Saturday. And Hanson was game to hold on to win. But Union Rags was wide all the way, ( perhaps to stay out of trouble? ) And when he drifted in the stretch he still managed to come on again to just miss.

This colt has had more lessons in his brief racing career, than most. He has been down inside, stopped behind horses, asked to wait, run in the mud, ducked from the whip, drifted when wide and run on 4 different tracks with 3 different riders. He has shown he has several gears, and always finishes willingly.

Will he get the Eclipse award for best 2 year colt? Maybe not. But is that such a bad thing? His connections won’t have to worry about the dreaded “Jinx.”

Hope he stays healthy and sound and takes the next steps forward into his three year old year. For me, right now, he’s the one I’m most excited about for next year’s Triple Crown action.

Quick Picks for the Big A

2011-11-26T10:35:00.000-05:00

Certainly not leftovers, today’s racing coast to coast is top notch. I don’t know what has me more excited. The 4 stakes at Aqueduct or the full card of youngsters at Churchill?

Since most of my handicapping at Churchill will most certainly have to include paddock and post parade visual analysis, I will be making my choices on a strictly race-to-race basis, there.

But I have taken a look at Aqueduct and this is the direction I am heading in at the Big A.

Demoiselle, Grade 2, 2 year old fillies, 1&1/8

I like both of the A.P.Indy’s in here. The Darley filly, Captivating Lass has come out of her maiden win at Parx with 5 solid works, and needs to take a step forward. The other AP Indy, Indeniable, will be making her first start on dirt. She was asked to rate a little last time and I think the further she goes the better she will be.

Remson, Grade 2, 2 year old colts, 1 & 1/8

Souper Speedy is a half to Brilliant Speed . He broke his maiden coming out of the one hole, and won convincingly. He is a big colt with a lot of upside and should love the added distance. Stephanoatsee, another AP Indy, is a half to Shackleford, and he is stepping up to the Big Stage. Still won impressively after a bad start in his last race.

Cigar Mile, Grade 1, 3& up

Just why is Hymn Book in here? He has had some very fine races on the turf, but Shug elects to switch surfaces. Look closely and you will see some sneaky good numbers on the main track. And I don’t generally like to bet horses back that have run in the Breeder’s Cup but To Honor and Serve( the lone 3 year old) had a very nice work on the training track 6 days ago, so maybe, just maybe, he is not over the top.

Gazelle, Grade 1, 3 year old Fillies, 1 & 1/8

Champion Awesome Feather is undefeated at 7 for 7, and if all is right with her she will be very tough to run down. I do like the Tapit filly, Draw it, in here. Lots of seconds, I know, but I think she is figuring it out. The blinkers looked like they have helped, her numbers are improving and the extra distance will be the key. But again, a tough task.

Good Luck if you are wagering today!

Thank Lutie for the Clark

2011-11-24T19:48:00.000-05:00

Meriwether Lewis Clark, Jr. or “Lutie,” was the primary person responsible for building America’s most famous racetrack, Churchill Downs. He was the grandson of the famous adventurer General William Clark of the Lewis and Clark Expedition. His mother was a Churchill , whose family moved to Louisville in the 1700’s and owned 300 acres of land south of the city. The land was inherited through the family and donated for use to the Louisville Jockey Club.

Lutie had a vision of building a race track after returning from several trips to Europe where he was inspired by the 3 premier races in England; the Epsom Derby, the Epsom Oaks and the St. Leger. In the summer of 1874, Lutie and his cousins and other prominent Louisville sportsmen met at the Galt House and prepared papers of incorporation for plans to build the home of the Twin Spires.

Lutie became acting president and manager of the track and his cousins became the financial backers. The following May 17, 1875 was opening day, and Aristides became the first winner of the Kentucky Derby.

Charismatic, yet controversial (Lutie didn’t seem to think twice about shooting people he disagreed with) ) he was instrumental in originating not only the Kentucky Derby, but he was responsible for implementing the original Stakes System. He wrote many rules of racing which are still in effect today.

Sadly, he lost a fortune in the stock Market crash of 1893, and committed suicide, fearing a life of poverty. But his name lives on at Churchill through the Clark Handicap that has been running since the track began. It is one of the oldest stakes in North American racing. It is prominent because it was one of three races that Lutie envisioned, along with the Derby and the Oaks from the very beginning of his dream. It has been run a various distances, but since 1955 it has been at a 1&1/8 and since 1901 it has been for 3 year olds and up.

It’s being said that this year’s Clark could have Eclipse Award implications. You have two horses in here ( Flat Out -5^th in the Classic, and Ruler On Ice – 3^rd in the Classic) that if they could jump up and win, would then be taken more seriously for their divisional honors. Not sure I agree with that, but that’s a conversation for another time.

I look for Wise Dan to run a big one. He likes the strip and his connections are saying he is better than ever. While the distance is a question mark, I think he will give a good account of himself.

Thanks + Giving

2011-11-23T19:34:00.000-05:00

Opps... Here it is ... A favorite Thanksgiving Day horse racing memory...

Thanks + Giving

2011-11-23T19:02:00.000-05:00

To appreciate and be thankful for our blessings should be a daily occurance. But sometimes it's easy to forget the "giving back" part. As horsepeople and racing fans,it's important to remember horse racing charities.
There are any number of horse rescues and retirement farms. There are several charities that help disabled riders and their families. Contributions for further research in equine health is another way to participate.Other smaller organizations, be it backstretch childcare, or backstretch employee aid, tend to those in need.

Thanksgiving is a good time to remember those who need our help.

I wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving with continued blessings for you and your families.

One of my most favorite Thanksgiving Day horseracing memories was 2007.
Take a look...

Back from the Breeder's Cup

2011-11-08T17:57:00.000-05:00

I’m just back from 5 days in God’s Country. Another Breeder’s Cup is in the books. And here are some of my thoughts.

Friday’s Zenyatta Party was a blast. I was able to chat with the Mosses and the Shirreffs and also had a quick word with Mike Smith. The unveiling of the life-size Zenyatta painting by Jaime Corum was very exciting and it is a superb work that really captures Zenyatta’s energy.

On a personal note, I got to meet Steve Haskin. I guess you could say for a few minutes I was “Hangin with Haskin”!! He is so very genuine and down to earth, just as you would expect if you follow his writings.

Though the racing was exciting, it wasn’t profitable for me. If it wasn’t for some old friends in the Red Smith back at Aqueduct (Boisterous, Bold Hawk, Harrods Creek and Grassy) it would have been a sad wagering weekend for me. Some seconds and thirds in the big races, and though some of my longshots ran well, I didn’t connect like I had hoped I would.

Speaking of Old Friends, I visited the Georgetown facility for their annual BBQ and silent & live auction. They had a perfect day, with great items for winning bidders to take home and enjoy.

More and more of the breeding farms are holding Open Houses at this time of the year. At Lane’s End, I was happy to see Quality Rd. He looks well and happy. And Rock Hard Ten is as handsome as ever.

I saw Paddy O’Prado at Spendthrift, and he looked great. I hadn’t been there for many, many years, when I worked there part-time in the broodmare barn, so it was a treat to go back. I was mesmerized by their cemetery. I think we tend to forget how many important horses came from Spendthrift when they were in their heyday.

Probably the biggest surprise for me was catching Gio Ponti at Castleton Lyons. This was my first visit to CL and it is absolutely gorgeous! Gio Ponti had just arrived, and everyone was very happy to show him off. What a great horse! Not a big horse but extremely well balanced, and looks as sound as a bell of brass .He is certainly a future Hall of Famer.

The WinStar brunch was classy. Tiznow looks great and his light, weedy son Colonel John is almost as big as his daddy, now. Quite the transformation.

Coolmore was our last stop. I always like seeing Fu Peg. For a Derby winner, I don’t think he ever got much respect. Uncle Mo was “on the grounds” but not showing yet.

Speaking of Uncle Mo, I was not at all surprised at his gallant effort, yet dismal showing in the Classic. Almost dead in May, diagnosed in June and then brought back and asked to run the race of his life in November? Come on, wasn’t that asking a lot?

I wished that Shackleford saw Caleb’s Posse coming. I hoped that Goldi would make it a fourth time. I rooted for Union Rags to get up. But that white blur that is Hanson held on gamely. Havre de Grace ran a good one. But Drosselmeyer ran them all down. Even the WinStar people were a bit surprised.

Got a pic of Royal Delta, right after her Ladies win. She had touted herself all week. She sold this afternoon at Fasig Tipton - This is what 8 & 1/2 million bucks looks like.

Breeder's Cup Bound

2011-11-03T05:57:00.000-04:00

Once again, I’m excited to say, I am heading out to the Breeder’s Cup. I’ve missed a few here and there, but it’s always a fun time and sometimes even profitable! It’s our country’s biggest stage for racing. This year we could see a filly win her 4^th BC race in a row and we could see another filly win the Classic! Superstars are made and future superstars can be unveiled.

I will be attending Zenyatta’s Party on Breeder’s Cup Friday. It will be a change of pace for me, and a good one. I’m not a big fan of the 2- day venue, so this breaks it up a little. I am looking forward to the festivities, while I watch and wager on Friday’s races

Still have a lot of studying to do. Going in, I am looking for good efforts from Union Rags in the Juvi, (he has impressed me) Shackleford in the Mile (a good spot for him), Goldikova in the turf mile, (already an amazing filly) and Havre de Grace in the Classic. There are unlimited opportunities to make lots of money, especially on big race days. And the dime supers are a favorite of mine; it’s a small investment and can pay big.

I wrote a short analysis of the BC Turf for ThoroFan. Don’t forget take a look at their Handicapper’s Corner to read commentary and opinions on every race by some of the regular contributors to that sight.

This year I will be tweeting here and there and will try to add some pictures too. Just click on "follow @ a saturday horse" at the top right corner of the blog. If you are not on Twitter, you should be. You can participate, or not, but just “following” is interesting and fun. There is no better place to get up-to-the minute news and insights from the world of horseracing.

Hope you have some success if you wager. Enjoy the Breeder’s Cup any way you can, and above all, as always, we wish all our equine friends a safe trip.

The 3 Million Dollar BC Turf

2011-11-02T16:20:00.000-04:00

The second biggest prize on Breeder’s Cup weekend is the Grade 1 Emirates Turf. It is for 3 and up, at a mile and a half, and in the 28 renewals of this prestigious race, American based horses have won 10 times. It is no secret that the European based horses excel in this event.

I am delighted to analyze this Breeder’s Cup event for ThoroFan’s Handicapper’s Corner. I will be heading out to Churchill to attend my 21^st BC. As a result, I will be writing this piece early so I will remind readers to pay attention to the condition of the course on race day, as weather and Mother Nature can change things up at the last minute. Also be aware of any other changes or bits of information that will be revealed in the days that lead up to Saturday, for example, how the Euros shipped and what they looked like out on the track.

When handicapping a race like this the first thing I look at is “Who has won going the tough mile and a half distance?” Your majority of horses want no part of 12 furlongs. So pay attention to those that have already had success doing it.

Course condition is all important. Trainers have been talking a lot about the turf course this year, that it is hard, yet throws up a lot of clods. If there is any rain then you want to consider the amount of “cut” in the ground. The more water/ rain/ moisture in the track, the more “cut”, or the softer, the course is. Some horses love this, some do not. A horse will usually not perform at their best if they are uncomfortable with the footing.

While most of the entrants in a race like this run at the highest level, sometimes you can separate them a bit, by comparing “who ran against who” and how they fared. This is a way to estimate their “class”.

St. Nicholas Abbey – Very talented colt, but is he going in the wrong direction?

Sarafina – Lots to like here, multiple Group 1winner has beaten colts before. Seventh place finish in the Arc was not as bad as it looks, horses that run well in the Arc have done well here

Dean’s Kitten – Always tries, distance won’t be a problem, but class hike could be

Stately Victor – One turf win on resume, big reach here.

Teaks North – great over-achieving gelding, Monmouth specialist, not sure he wants to go this far

Await The Dawn – A 4-yr old with just 7 lifetime starts. Weakened first time in Group 1, in short field, but had an excuse as he was found to not be 100%. Should like any type course, Good connections.

Sea Moon – Lightly raced, troubled trip in last, but an up- and- comer, how good is he?

Brilliant Speed – always liked this 3 year old. Turf is best surface, never off the board on the lawn, could improve with added distance. Some upside still, maybe the best US horse of this group

Midday - +3million dollar earner, got beat a neck in last year’s f &m turf. A top class mare, would be no surprise. She is the only entrant that has a run over the Churchill Turf Course.

If the Europeans ship well, then ignore the rest. I look for Sarafina, Midday and Sea Moon as the three top choices in the Emirates Turf. The fact that the fillies have other options, yet preferred to run against colts at the added distance speaks to the confidence in their connections. And Sea Moon looks to have a lot of talent. If you want a price horse, maybe it’s Brilliant Speed. The Dynaformers get better as they mature and though this colt would need to run the race of his life, maybe he can.

My Sunday at J.D. Cooper's

2011-10-20T21:27:00.000-04:00

In a quiet corner of Northeast Connecticut is JD Cooper’s of Putnam. It is a pub/restaurant/sports bar where you can bet the ponies.

You will find an interesting menu with surprisingly good food, a nice bar, a number of booths but more importantly, plenty of TV’s to watch simulcasting from any number of tracks across the country.

And while it’s always nice to be on track, it’s not so convenient if there’s not a track close by. The Winner’s Arena at Cooper’s is a great way to enjoy the races with fellow fans.

OK, besides the waitresses and the tellers, I was the only female there on Sunday. And apparently the only one rooting for Sarah Lynx in the Canadian International. You know how that is when you are the only one in the joint rooting for a longshot and you suddenly become the center of attention?

Well I don’t ever mind being in that position. We’ve all been there.

Truth be told, she wasn’t in my top four until I saw her in the post parade. I had noticed that she finished up well against Goldikova’s little sister. And I knew the distance suited her. But she was a three year old AND a filly and at first, thought it would be a tough task. Then I saw her in the post parade. She did a little prop and wheel when distracted by something. Soumillon seemed amused by her antics and when he dropped his irons for the rest of the warmup, she relaxed nicely. She looked like a horse on a mission.

As I watched the race unfold, I said to myself, ”sure hope she likes being covered up” and when the rail opened up at the top of the stretch she made her move and proved much the best.

Figs and stats and numbers and sheets are all useful tools in the handicapping process. But paying close attention to the horse’s energy level, mental sharpness and way of going can only be analyzed in the paddock and the post parade. Learn to read the body language of a racehorse. Don’t ever ignore the signals that a horse gives when she’s ready to run a big one. Time and again, you will be rewarded.

A Sparkling Performance from the Champagne Winner

2011-10-09T10:56:00.000-04:00

Union Rags was about impressive as a horse could be yesterday in winning the Champagne Stakes at Belmont. Even a troubled trip couldn’t stop the son of Dixie Union from remaining undefeated in his brief campaign. Big, handsome, mature, full of power and now a multiple graded stakes winner, we could be looking at something very special here.

Owned and bred by the Wyeth family and trained by Michael Matz, the colt was coming off a maiden win at Delaware and a win in the Saratoga Special in the slop. Stretching out to a one turn mile in the Champagne, he beat a nice field by daylight and did it very professionally, despite numerous traffic problems. This should set him up perfectly for the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile next month.

But talk about a learning experience

Chart notes: ( courtesy of BRISNET)

UNION RAGS appeared to shy away from an errant RIGHT TO VOTE at the break, moving inward slightly, went on to settle into midpack, was taken in hand when brushed twice by TAKES THE GOLD midway down the backstretch, was put to some encouragement to improve position on the turn, achieved a good striking position before placed back in hand stuck behind rivals coming to the five-sixteenths pole, was forced to bide time when lacking suitable options for an additional furlong, had thoughts of splitting rivals foes just past the three-sixteenths pole, but after spotting a better opportunity to the outside instead, altered course sharply towards there for full clearance, took off with sudden speed once the maneuver was completed, shot past by the leader a short distance from the eighth pole and kicked well clear of the competition, finishing the race being hand urged.

Just one of these situations could discourage a young horse, but Union Rags took it all in stride.

This was THE performance of the day for me. Take a look.

A Sneak Peek at Keeneland

2011-10-07T07:16:00.000-04:00

It’s Opening Day at Keeneland! If you are like me and not on track, and worse, AT WORK, then hopefully you know you can sneak a peek at live coverage by going to their website to watch each and every race.

Click here.

Also don’t miss Barn Notes…

And Workouts and Clocker’s Comments…

The Grade I Darley Alcibiades is the Stakes feature for opening day and it is a test for 2 year old fillies going 1 & 1/16 on the polytrack. Many of these fillies will be stretching out for the first time. The morning line 5 to 1 choice is And Why Not, (a Saturday Afternoon horse) by Street Cry, out of Alchemist, by A.P Indy, who broke her maiden very stylishly at Saratoga in August. She was then thrown into the Grade 1 Spinaway, broke slowly and finished a well beaten third. This looks to be a talented filly who will love the added distance and may relish the polytrack.

Tu Endie Wei is undefeated on the Woodbine surface. She is another that should enjoy the streachout.

I would also take a little look at New Wave. She has won on the Arlington Park surface, and had a respectable race on turf in the PG Johnson to a nice filly.

This is a very nice group of fillies and the outcome will impact the Breeder’s Cup in four weeks.

The co feature is the Grade 3 Phoenix going 6 furlongs. Aikenite is a major player and is a “horse for the course” at Keeneland.

There is a Pick 4 starting (.50 minimum) in races 7-10. Pick 3’s also have a .50 minimum. And don’t forget the dime supers.

There is perhaps no finer racing on the planet. Enjoy it any way you can!

Super Saturday Afternoon Horses

2011-10-01T09:07:00.000-04:00

Don’t really know how I am wagering today, but I can tell you who I will be rooting for. Some blog favorites will be looking for big efforts on their way to the Breeder’s Cup races. To get there, they all need to at least maintain their current form or take another step forward. The big race, on the big day, is still a month away.

In the Vosburgh, I will be hoping that Trappe Shot can get his first Grade I win. He loves Belmont, loves the distance, and shows he loves an off track if NY gets more rain. Anything out of a Private Account mare usually does .His only two OTB finishes in his life were “stumbled at the start” and “bumped soundly” and I don’t really think either of those comments indicate anything other than bad luck.

In the Beldame, it’s Havre de Grace for me. If she is as good as Larry has always said, then ’nuff said. Though she has never run at Belmont, I think she will love the layout. And an off track will not hurt her chances.

Glad to see that Stay Thirsty has come out from Uncle Mo’s shadow. As his workmate all last winter and spring, I always respected this horse. He has rounded to form very nicely and we know he likes it wet too.

I’m hoping Shackleford enjoyed his brief freshening and will come back strong in the Indiana Derby. I want a “Derby” win for this boy. I would like to see him back on track for a shot at either the mile or the Classic next month.

Not only is there great racing coast to coast this weekend, but the Arc is tomorrow as well. What we see worldwide over the next two days will make some impact for sure on November’s Championship days.

Million Dollar Derby Value Play

2011-09-24T09:33:00.000-04:00

This year’s Grade 11 Pennsylvania Derby, with a purse of a million dollars, will be run at a mile and 1/8, and features a pretty decent group of three year olds.

The morning line favorite is Ruler On Ice (5-2), this year’s Belmont victor. Though he may get his preferred wet track, a mile and 1/8 is not his distance. And he is giving a lot weight to the entire field in here. I am looking elsewhere for some value.

To Honor and Serve (Bernadini) (3-1) is coming off a decent win after being taken off the Derby Trail with a suspensory injury. His comeback race was going short, and set him up for a romp against older allowance horses. He is in light with 114. But will he return to his earlier 3 year old form?

Rattlesnake Bridge, a Tapit colt (4-1), never fails to run a good one and appears to be figuring it out. Not excited about his drifting in the late stages of theTravers, although it was a very good effort. He has had two nice works since then and should have recovered from that game second.

The horse I like in here is Arthur’s Tale. He is coming off a 6 month layoff, so he is being discounted at 12 to 1. By Bernadini, out of the multiple graded stakes winner Owsley, he was originally on the Triple Crown trail till he developed a stress fracture, though another report read that he originally popped a splint. Either way, both are relatively minor injuries which horses can come back from, many times, with no ill effects.

Arthur’s Tale was originally pointed to the Travers, so he was clearly “almost” ready to run. He has been given another month and three more works. This should have him dead fit. Giving time to a talented three year old never hurts. He showed improvement in his last two races in the spring, one- a win on an off track, and another game second, by a neck, to Toby’s Corner in the Wood Memorial, while still beating the bigger than life, Uncle Mo.

I don’t think we have seen the best of Arthur’s Tale yet, I think there’s still upside potential there. And he is getting in light with 114. That’s TEN POUNDS less than the favorite. Arthur’s Tale at 12-1 is clearly, to me, the value play.

I look to see a big effort from this colt on his return to the races. And an off track should not hurt his chances. Will he “need” the race? At double digit odds, I’m taking a chance that he will be ready to roll.

Lots of good racing luck to all who are wagering today and a safe trip for all our equine friends.

Sittin'Chilly

2011-09-18T10:46:00.000-04:00

How GOOD is this filly?

Watch the replay. Winter Memories TOYED with this field. I don’t think she had to take a deep breath to win the Grade 1 Garden City yesterday. And it was a very patient and heady ride from 4-wins-on -the -day-Castellano.

My initial reaction as the race unfolded was… up close…dropped back…. no… not again… behind a wall of horses… nowhere to go… uh-oh… she’s last….but in the blink of an eye, with what is becoming her patented move, the big grey filly wheels out and kicks it into overdrive, and wins WITH SOMETHING LEFT.

Winter Memories is always a bit keen in her races, though she seems tractable too. A filly like this does need some cover to help her relax. But if you watch the race, you will see that JC stood up on her the whole way, while others were getting position, trying to keep up, Winter Memories just galloped along just waiting to be asked. Not an easy task for the jock when riding a horse that runs with such enthusiasm. But he was just sittin’ chilly. (Maybe in this case, you could call it standin’ chilly… he had SOOOO much horse)

Having to come around the whole field is not always ideal, but it does seem to be her most successful running style.

A blog favorite, she is a joy to watch. Her explosive late kick is so fast you have almost no time to cheer her on. She jumps into the bridle and she’s gone. She is on top of her game right now and it’s on to the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland on October 15.

Sunday's Northern Dancer at Woodbine

2011-09-16T23:32:00.000-04:00

The 2011 Grade 1 Northern Dancer Stakes goes as the 8^th race on the Sunday card at Woodbine. It is part of Woodbine Mile Day, and the second day of a turf-rich weekend in every division with Breeder’s Cup implications.

The Northern Dancer is at a mile and a half on turf and the traditional prep for the $1.5 million dollar Canadian International.

Not a stellar field in here, but some nice horses none the less.

There will be a lot of focus on the Euro, Wigmore Hall, because even the second or third string Euro is very often better than most North American turf runners. However, he will be a short price and, though he has run against better, keep in mind, he has never run at the distance and has never run over the Woodbine turf. And I am not convinced that he will like a firm turf course, either.

Second choice on the morning line is Bourbon Bay. He is a consistent sort having won on three different surfaces. And he is trained by a Hall of Famer. He has 3 wins and a second out of 5 tries at this distance, though never at Woodbine. He seems to get along very well with his new jock Joe Talamo, and Smokin’ Joe ships in for the ride. The thing I find the most interesting is his workout pattern. In the last 15 weeks he has run 4 times, but in between, every third work is 7/8ths of a mile. There will be no doubt about his fitness and soundness with this amount of work and I think he will once again give a very good account of himself.

Trainer Mark Casse has two in here. And while I prefer Seaside Retreat, his other horse Hailstone IS a half brother to Court Vision who will be trying to win his second Woodbine Mile on the same day. But I don’t see this son of City Zip getting a mile and a half.

Seaside Retreat is interesting though. The 8 year old gelding is getting his third start off a 3 YEAR layoff. That’s a LONG layoff. But he is rounding to form. Ignore this horse at your own peril. If he returns to his back form, at Woodbine, he could be very tough. Two triple digit numbers in 2008, in this very same race AND the Canadian International, shows he has what it takes. Will his back class resurface?

Simmard deserves a look. Attfield always spots his horses well and he has more wins than any of them over the Woodbine turf.

Al Khali is a horse that I always thought could be a good one. But he always seems to find trouble. Alan Garcia does get along well with him and if you are playing exotics, he could jump into the triple with a good trip. But will it ever happen?

Hotep and Laureate Conductor appear outclassed.

I like the looks of Seaside Retreat in here especially at his morning line of 10 -1. I might be willing to take a chance and hope that he returns to his glory days. I will use Bourbon Bay (5-2) and Simmard (8-1) if I dive into any exotic plays.

As one of the guest handicappers this weekend at the Handicapper's Corner at ThoroFan I urge you to visit their informative website. It's the site that gives a voice to the racing fan.

Good Luck and enjoy all the good turf racing at Woodbine this weekend.

Special K ?

2011-09-11T15:02:00.000-04:00

Always exciting to see a nice two year break their maiden first time out. Yesterday at Belmont was the coming out party for Aubby K, a big good looking bay filly by Street Sense out of graded stakes winner, Lily Capote. Owned by her breeder James Spence, she was sent off at even money, as her performance was no secret to many.

Off a beat slow, she went to the front, attended the pace and drew off with the upmost ease to win by fifteen. Cory Nakatani sat chilly the whole way, threw a couple of crosses at her at the eighth pole and this filly never really got out of a gallop. Now, not sure what she beat, but this miss trained by Ralph Nicks could, indeed be something special.

Game Faces

2011-09-04T09:19:00.000-04:00

In my lone visit to Saratoga this year, I sure picked a good day to go. I was able to witness a top flight filly, did down deep and make some racing history.

Havre de Grace , by 2005 Horse of the Year, St. Liam ( also the 2005 Woodward victor) out of the Carson City mare, Easter Bunette has put herself at the top of the division with the very gutsy win in the Grade 1 Woodward, and is only the second filly to have ever won this race. It was her first test against older males.

Sportsman/owner Rick Porter said “We gave her a chance to show how good she was”

Rider Ramon Dominguez “She called on herself beautifully, she has a very relaxed stride”

Masterful trainer Larry Jones said “We are 75% leaning towards the Beldame” for her next start.

Alex Solis, on runner up Flat Out, “she proved today that she is a great horse”

One more start in either the Beldame or the Spinster should set her up nicely for the first weekend in November.

Get Tied On

2011-08-27T14:01:00.000-04:00

If not for Hurricane Irene, I would be spending Travers weekend at Saratoga. But plans need to be flexible when Mother Nature is as serious as she is this weekend, and I pray everyone stays safe.

Now the question is, will those of us in front of our TVs and computers have power all the way through to the Pacific Classic tomorrow night?

I’ll pray for that too.

I am still in front in the "Huddie" handicapper’s contest. But the pressure is mounting. Had nothing yesterday (a first!) and my 25 to 1 Shug firster in the 3^rd, just ran fourth. I wasn’t sure what to expect of him, but his dam Salute was a favorite of mine so I gave it a shot. I will add him to my watch list, as he ran very professionally and should improve next out.

Some thoughts for the Stakes Action at Saratoga.

I will probably back Romacaca in the Balston Spa .The turf has just been upgraded to firm at the Spa which I think she prefers. A winner of 12 races, she can be on the lead or close to it and she is as honest as they come. Maybe Tapitsfly deserves a look too.

The 9^th through the 11^th comprises the late all stakes Pick 4. In the Victory Ride I think that Valiant Passion is the horse to beat. The Steve Margolis trained Moon Buzz though totally untested is a bit interesting. Though 2 for 2, this is a huge step up but she could be a live longshot.

Looking at both Tar Heel Mom and Sassy Image in the Ballerina. One will be on the front end, and the other will be flying at the end. Both are coming off wins and sharp works since. Sassy Image has had a freshening, which always works with her. I will use both in my Pick 4.

In the King’s Bishop I will single Cool Blue Red Hot. If Uncle Mo is “back” I’m fine with that. But I think this is asking a lot, after what he has been through, so maybe this is a good time to take a stand against him. I think the 7/8ths will suit the Penna- trained Harlan’s Holiday colt to “t” and I have to root for my “huddie” choice. He should be closing late.

Going with Shackleford in the big one. I have been a big fan since the winter, and there is not a more honest three year old than this big red colt. May not be the perfect distance but he’s coming to this race healthy and happy and I would love to see him win this.

Enjoy Travers Day wherever you are. Get tied on for some great racing and some nasty weather.

The Alabama could have been "The Cottrell"

2011-08-17T18:54:00.000-04:00

The Alabama Stakes for three year old fillies, is a true Grade 1 going the classic distance of a mile and a quarter on Saratoga's main track. The feature on Saturday in the 131st renewal. If you want to remember some of the best fillies on the east coast for the last 100+ years, just read the list of winners of the Alabama.

Prior to the late sixties, some of the top class fillies that have won this race include Beldame, Miss Woodford, Maskette,Top Flight, Vagrancy, Busanda, Primonetta, Tempted, What A Treat, Miss Cavendish and Gamely. Many of these became blue hens, or dams of multiple graded stakes winners.

And the list goes on. Other, more recent winners are Shuvee, Fanfreluche, Optimistic Gal, Our Mims, Life's Magic, Mom's Command, Maplejinsky, Open Mind, Go For Wand, Versailles Treaty, Sky Beauty, Heavenly Prize, Banshee Breeze, Silverbulletday, Jostle, Flute, Pine Island, Proud Spell and Blind Luck.

Just a partial list, but impressive just the same.

I am always curious on how certain Stakes races are named. Most often they are named after famous horses, owners, jockeys, or trainers that have had success at a certain track. According to the very limited information I could find on the naming of the Alabama, it seems it was named in honor of William Cottrell, who was from Mobile, Alabama. Because he was "too modest to have a race named after him personally, it was named after the state he lived in."

Who was this man? Hard to say, but maybe he had the right idea We could have been calling this race "the Cottrell". The Alabama is as prestigious a race as you can get in this country, and just the name is synonymous with class. Whoever joins the list this year will be in the company of some of the greatest fillies American Racing has ever seen.

The field for the Grade 1 Alabama:

1) Royal Delta / J.Lezcano
2) Pinch Pie / J. Velazquez
3) Plum Pudding / M. Garcia
4) It's Tricky / E. Castro
5) St.John's River / R. Alberado
6) Inglorious / L. Contreras

Who will win the Alabama this year?

Laughter Could Be A Key

2011-08-12T07:15:00.000-04:00

A Look at the Sword Dancer Invitational

The Gr. 1 Sword Dancer Invitational is the feature race at Saratoga on Saturday. It is a mile and a half on the inner turf course for three year olds and up with a purse of $500,000 and is a prep for the Breeder’s Cup Turf. Named for the Horse of the Year in 1959, Sword Dancer was owned by the Brookmeade Stable and trained by Elliot Burch. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1977.

A very good field of 8 are entered, with trainers Bill Mott and Christopher Clement both entering 2. Clement has said that Grassy will scratch if the turf is too firm. His other charge is the Firestone’s homebred Winchester, who might be conceived as the class of the field. This will be his second race off a layoff, and though he is working well, his trainer has said that coming back in three weeks might not be ideal.

The highweight (123) in the field is Teak’s North who is looking for his 3^rd Grade 1 win of the year. However he has never been the distance of a mile and a half.

Drosselmeyer, last year’s Belmont winner, HAS won at the distance, but that was on dirt. He tried the turf twice as a two year old, but did not win. However, a sharp work on Monday on the grass, indicates the surface switch should not be a problem. Mott’s other horse Al Khali seems to be going in the wrong direction.

Rahy’s Attorney is a 14 race winner of over 2 million dollars and though perhaps a cut below these, always tries.

Though Bim Bam did beat Champion Gio Ponti in the Manhattan, I think he does his best running when there is some cut in the ground. He has not won this year, and I can’t recommend.

The horse I like in here is Boisterous (a very good name for a son of Distorted Humor!). He is a Phipps homebred out of Emanating, who is by Cox’s Ridge. They are becoming scarce, but when I see anything out of a Cox’s Ridge mare I know they can run all day.

He is trained by the very patient Hall of Fame trainer, Shug McCaughey, who is having a very good Saratoga meet winning at 31%. And leading jockey John Velazquez has won on him 4 times.

His numbers are improving with every start and he can run on any type of turf. Yes, he is stepping up, but his effort in the Gr. 1 Man O War proves that he deserves another chance. And I think the added distance will suit him. He is 4 to 1 on the morning line, and he could stay around the third choice.

Boisterous is my top choice in the Sword Dancer. I think this could be his day to run a big one and win a Grade 1. I may make a “Distorted Humor exacta “with Drosselmeyer as my second choice.

A big Thank You to ThoroFan and the Handicapper’s Corner for giving me the opportunity to express my opinion, and don’t forget to check out fellow-blogger, “the Turk’s” review of the Arlington Million.

Good Luck if you are wagering this weekend!

And Why Not

2011-08-08T03:53:00.000-04:00

By Street Cry out of the AP Indy mare, Alchemist, And Why Not broke her maiden at first asking yesterday at Saratoga. Ridden by Julien Leperoux, the bay filly lagged behind early, saved ground and drew off smartly in the stretch. The slowish time, more than likely, was a result of a drying out racetrack.

This is a good looking filly with a lot of substance. And while Trainer Michael Matz is not known for sending out debut winners, this filly was ready enough.

Bred in partnership by Matz’s wife, DD and sisters, this filly was bought at auction just a year ago at Fasig Tipton Saratoga for $775,000 and is owned by DD’s mother Helen Groves.The dam, Alchemist, is a black-type winner and 100% producer, now having 4 starters and 4 winners. She herself is out of the Grade 1 winning Storm Cat mare Aldiza, and a half sister to the graded stakes winner, Altesse. This is a very strong female family going back to the good foundation mare Courtly Dee.

You know how those big Street Cry fillies can be especially as they mature. There could be some talent here. She has all the right credentials. And Why Not is a filly to watch.

Tar Heel Mom is back to her winning ways with an easy win in the Gr 2 Honorable Miss. The 6 year old mare by Flatter is now 11 for 28, with 7 seconds and 5 thirds.

And while kudos to the game Sean Avery, the winner of the Vanderbilt, Trappe Shot ran too good to lose.

Nothing clever about my choices on Sunday at Huddie, but still loose on the lead with 13 more contest days to go. Lots of good handicappers breathing down my neck, but I intend to hold on to the wire.

Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner ?

2011-07-29T21:59:00.000-04:00

I’m hoping at least the 8^th and 9th will stay on the turf at Saratoga tomorrow. Lots of rain today, so there could very well be a little give to the ground.

The Hattie Moseley goes as the 8^th and it is named in honor of the woman who started Hattie’s Chicken Shack in Saratoga Springs. Years ago, I remember dreaming about the fried chicken lunch I would be having at the track, as my dad took the exit off the thruway every August and headed towards the Spa.

Now I just dream about winning tickets.

This race is a mile on the inner, for 3 year old fillies, with a purse of $75,000.

I like the new face in here, Starformer. She is getting first time lasix, is a Juddmonte homebred by Dynaformer out of a stakes winning mare, and is Group 3 placed in France. She has a win going the distance and a sharp work over the Saratoga turf six days ago. Lots to like with this filly, and though there are some nice fillies in here, she looks like the one to beat. If there is a little cut in the ground, she won’t mind it.

Parting Words could be used in the exotics, as she is very consistent sort and I may take a look at Japanese Garden who has never turfed, but could like it. Trained by Rusty Arnold, who also trained her SW mom, Fircroft, she has some talent and will be a price.

The Grade 1 Diana is a more difficult race to analyze, simply because almost any one of the 10 fillies in here could win it. Romacaca is crossed entered in the Matchmaker on Sunday at Monmouth, but that too, is not an easy spot. Though it’s only a Grade 3, the top 3 finishers get a stallion season from Taylor Made.

I think the winner in here will be the one that works out the best trip.

If Romacaca stays in the race, she is the speed. An 11 race winner, she is as game as they come, but she has never won at the distance. The undefeated Unbridled Humor is stepping up, and may inherit the lead. Is she good enough to win a Grade 1 after just going through her conditions?

I’m a little interested in Bay to Bay. She seems to be rounding to form and her numbers are getting better and better. With trouble in her last, this will be her 3^rd start off a slight freshening. She is a Grade 2 winner and has won on any type of ground. Garcia has been cold, so far this meet, but I don’t think he has forgotten how to ride.

Will it be winner, winner, chicken dinner, at Saratoga tomorrow???

Hoping to stay in front and improve my position in the MyTogaPicks Handicapping Contest…but I have a longggggg way to go!

Spectacular Times Two

2011-07-27T21:08:00.000-04:00

No matter what kind of day you had, make it better by watching the replays of Winter Memories winning the Gr. 2 Lake George at Saratoga, and Frankel winning the Sussex at Goodwood.

It simple does not get any better than this.

Despite trouble at the top of the stretch, the gray filly by El Prado out of Memories of Silver, exploded at the top of the stretch, to romp by 4 & ½. She now has 5 of 6 lifetime wins and it looks like the sky’s the limit for this filly. She has a breathtaking turn of foot, and I don’t think we have seen the best of her yet. Plans are for her to run in the Lake Placid on August 21, with an eye to the Queen Elizabeth at Keeneland in the fall.

Watch it here.

Across the pond, the sensational Frankel, went to the front and never looked back in the Sussex Stakes. The colt by Galileo, and named after the late Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel, defeated a short field that included Canford Cliffs, who recently beat the champion mare Goldikova. Frankel is being hailed as one of the best milers Europe has ever seen. Unfortunately, there is no plan to bring Frankel to the Breeder’s Cup this year.

Watch it here.

Summer Racing at Its' Finest

2011-07-20T15:44:00.000-04:00

Opening day is here! For the West Coast, it’s today at Del Mar and for here on the East Coast is Saratoga on Friday. Without a doubt, the best overall racing in the country and it doesn’t get any better than this.

Most often I will be concentrating on the upstate New York meet. It will be challenging as my free time has just recently been taken up by an important commitment that I just could not pass up, ( I know, WHAT was I thinking???) But I am good at muliti-tasking and there’ll be a lot of that going on. I will certainly spend a few days at the Spa, but it will be a Saturday or a Sunday. Not my favorite days, but this year it will have to be.

Meanwhile I will “live vicariously” through twitter, blogs, and texts from some of my lucky friends who will be there, and a glance now and then at the post parades via TVG, HRTV, Twin Spires TV,and this year , even NBC! Technology will keep me current, live, entertained, and enlightened. It’s not like standing at the Paddock fence, but it’s better than an “empty stall”.

The James Marvin, the first Stakes on opening day Friday looks like a good one. A full field of well matched sprinters and at first glance, I know I will be wagering on Here Comes Ben ( 5-1!) I have always liked this horse and he’s been good to me. The winner of the Grade 1 Forego at the Spa last year, I like that he has had a win over the track. He has also had a recent work over it. Another plus. He is a 7 furlong specialist winning 5 out of 7 at the distance. Lopresti is a good horseman and I also like that Ben is re-uniting with Alex Solis, who knows him well. Solis is coming off a nice Belmont meet. Not only that, he won the $600,000 Grade 2 Virginia Derby on Air Support for Shug Mc Gaughey last weekend with a very professional ride. He is getting live mounts for good outfits and I look for that momentum to continue for him.

So get tied on, and enjoy the next six weeks of the best racing in America.

Girls Get It Done

2011-07-18T12:44:00.000-04:00

Listen up Racing Fans! For all those who have been crying for months that racing is uninspiring, the three year olds suck, the Europeans turf horses are always better, jocks can’t ride, racing is doomed, and just about everything else that people complain about, clear your head, open your eyes and watch the replay of the Delaware Handicap.

Watch it a few times and just let it sink in.

You are watching two great fillies battle down to the wire. This, my friends, is what makes horseracing the best sport in the world. Heart in a racehorse is on display here. Both these fillies gave everything they had in a stirring stretch drive, with only inches separating them at the finish. Blind Luck and Havre de Grace were tuned to perfection, by master horsemen. Blind Luck got the bob, and kudos to her, but no one can argue that both girls were remarkable. Steve Haskins writes about it here.

This rivalry is truly special to see, and don’t take it lightly. Rivalries in our sport have become rare. Fingers crossed, both stay healthy and sound and we can see this continue for a while longer.

I so wanted a dead heat on Saturday, because I am a huge fan of both horses and really didn’t want to see one of these great fillies lose. And it very nearly happened. It was close. And just what about that 2 lbs? That’s the handicapper’s job, and the owners and trainers have to make some tough decisions about whether to accept the assignment or not. After reading all the circumstances surrounding the Delaware Handicap in Mr. Haskins’ piece, I can’t blame Mr. Hollendorfer for expressing his pre-entry conditions, nor can I blame Mr. Jones for his concerns either. Both have to protect their horses in whatever way they can.

So, many thanks to all the connections for being gifted horsemen and generous sportsmen. Their commitment to the sport is outstanding. But a bigger thanks to Blind Luck and Havre de Grace for putting on the show. Thanks for reminding us, once again, how great you both are and how special our sport is.

For racing fans, it doesn’t get any better than this.

On The Turf

2011-07-15T16:39:00.000-04:00

The biggest weekend of racing at Colonial Downs is here with some great turf racing including the Gr.3 Virginia Oaks and the Gr.2 Virginia Derby. And though they have had some rain there in the last few days, if the weather stays dry, the course should be firm.

A very nice group of 3 year old fillies get together in the Oaks.

Dynamic Holiday (love the Harlan’s Holidays on turf) is coming off a 4 win streak but has not started in 4 months. She has run well off a layoff before and is the high weight (122). And like all the fillies in here, except one, she has never run over the course. Already a winner of a Grade 3, this filly has done nothing wrong. There’s no doubt she is the class of the field, but if there’s a day to beat her it could be Saturday. The layoff, the top weight and the fact that she has never run at Colonial is enough to make me look around for something else, especially if she is the hot favorite.

The Pletcher-trained graded stakes- placed Excited is coming off a nice second to the very talented Bizzy Caroline who is entered to run in the Gr.1 American Oaks Saturday at Hollywood Park. That in itself makes this filly very interesting. Excited has a little speed and breaking from the outside, and with no real speed in the race, she could inherit the lead.

Two fillies on the upswing are Summer Savory, undefeated on turf with two back to back victories in big fields at Arlington. And the regally bred Smart Sting who just may want a little more distance. She is coming in with some very sharp works.

There’s a bit of “buzz” on the filly Wyomia. Winless on turf, but she did more than split the field in last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies on turf, she has a “best of 11” work on the Colonial turf a week ago.

A long shot to consider in exotics is Pink Pallet. The only one to have ever started on this turf course, she is 2 for 3 over it and will be closing in the lane. Though she needs to step up against these, she is a "horse for course."

I will take a look at the post parade and conditions of the turf, but as you can see, there are several ways to go in here. It’s a nice race for a few dime super boxes.

The Virginia Derby is 1 &1/4 over the Secretariat Course, and another great betting race. It’s a full field at 12 with at least half of the field looking very “ live." Banned, of course, looks like the horse to beat. Coming off 2 graded stakes wins, he is the highweight. But like all the other 3 year old colts in here, he has to run further than he ever has.

A few of the talented colts in here that might love the extra real estate are Air Support, Street Game, Newsdad, Casino Host and longshot Callingahardten. Some very nice recent pictures of a few of them can be found on the Virginia Thoroughbred blog. Callingahardten is stunning.

The New York-bred Street Game has been getting better and better and could continue to improve.

I have been a big fan of Newsdad, and he is returning to what I think is his preferred surface.

Casino Host did not appear to like the yielding turf last time. If you put a line through the last, he’s another that could run big at a nice price. The distance should not be a problem.

If Shug thinks this is a good spot for Air Support, you have to respect that.

And how can you dismiss Benergy, who finished second to Banned in his last?

A challenging race to bet, (well aren't they all?) Take a look at these 3 year olds in the post parade and watch the board too.

Good luck and enjoy the great grass racing this weekend.

Saturday Gold Star Performances

2011-07-10T09:38:00.001-04:00

Congratulations to a couple of Saturday Afternoon horses.

Winner of the Gr. 2 American Derby, Wilcox Inn absolutely ran away and hid from the field yesterday and did it with style and ease. Running the mile and 3/8ths in stakes record time, the son of Harlan’s Holiday has come into his own, maybe with the help of blinkers, and definitely with patient handling from trainer Michael Stidham. The colt has now won 2 legs of Arlington’s Mid America Triple and will be on target for the third leg, the Gr. 1 Secretariat on August 13^th.

Another Saturday Afternoon horse, First Dude, turned in an amazing run to win the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup. He has matured in his 4 year old year, and thus has changed his running style. More of a stalker now, he is content to wait, and as a result can better utilize his enormous stride to mow them down in the lane. As a “Win & You’re In” race, First Dude has earned himself a berth in the Breeder’s Cup Classic this year.

Other notable performances yesterday worth mentioning:

Fantasia’s Gr. 3 Modesty win was a very nice effort over a good group. The daughter of Sadler’s Wells will be on her way to the Gr. 1 Beverly D on August 13, Arlington Million Day.

St. John’s River finally got herself an Oaks win. Second in both the Fair Ground Oaks and Kentucky Oaks, this fast closing daughter of Include was up in time to win by a neck over pacesetter Strike the Moon.

It is on to the Gr. 1 Alabama for St. John’s River.

And in a “Zen” like performance, Sassy Image came from last, looking like she lost contact with the field, and unleashed a furious stretch run to just get up at the wire in the Gr 1 Princess Rooney, at the Calder Summit of Speed. Mike Smith, in for the ride , said the daughter of Broken Vow did not handle the “good” going at all and though he didn’t want to be in the middle of the track, she found it more comfortable there and got down to business. And that she did. The highweight in the 8 horse field, this was her 3^rd Graded Stakes win in a row.

Arlington Million Preview Day

2011-07-09T09:56:00.000-04:00

There's lots of great racing all around the country today. Here are some of my thoughts on races 8-9-10 at Arlington.

The Modesty Gr.3 ( 1 &3/16ths TURF )

How can you bet against Wasted Tears? This mare is so game on the front end and with 12 wins from 19 starts you know she puts it on the line every time. She is the lone speed, but this is a distance she has never tried before. It will be a test to her determination and will to win. This is a group of nice fillies and there are a couple in here that might actually want more ground and will get it today. My Baby Bay can lay up close, and no one is bred any better for the distance than Fantasia. But they both have to get by the very tenacious Wasted Tears.

The American Derby Gr. 2 ( 1 & 3/16ths TURF )

It’s no secret that Wilcox Inn has been a blog favorite since last year’s BC Juvenile on Turf. This is a new distance for every horse in here, so the question is, who will be victorious? I will stick with Wilcox inn as his pedigree is loaded with distance loving turf horses. He has had a win over the track, with blinkers added, and though he speed figures aren’t the highest, that will probably mean his price might be right.

The Arlington Handicap Gr 3 ( 1 & ¼ TURF )

This race is a bit of a puzzle to me, but the fact that Dean’s Kitten was asked to run this distance as a 3 year old, twice last year, tells me that this is what they always had in mind for him. Though not successful he didn’t disgrace, and ran with some nice ones. He has rounded to form nicely this year and I look for him to sit a good trip. The only thing I like about the German horse Senagus, is that he is dropping 27 pounds from his last race! Even with his many wins, notice his earnings don’t add up to much and while the addition of Lasix might help, he’s not my type of horse. If he beats me, he beats me. Can Juniper Pass hold his form, racing out of California? Not sure about that. Proceed Bee appears overmatched, but going back to the turf, which may be his preferred surface. I have always liked this over achiever and he has a longshot look.

These three races make up an All Graded Stakes Pick 3. Good luck and have fun if you are playing.

The Grade 2 Firecracker and Holiday Hunch Plays

2011-07-04T10:21:00.001-04:00

If you are one to play hunches, here’s a few for you.

Star Spangled (Monmouth 1)

Giant Patriot (Colonial 8)

Justice for All (Les Bois Park 5)

Freedom of Expression (Chippewa Downs 6)

Ok, so I admit I’ve never played Les Bois or Chippewa Downs, but I couldn’t resist!

But I will be playing the last day of the Churchill spring meet, so here are some thoughts on the feature.

The Gr 2 Firecracker, on the turf at Churchill today is a full and contentious field of 11. The big question is, at the time of this post, how much will it rain and will it affect the grass course?

The morning line luke-warm favorite is the millionaire General Quarters. He has one win on turf, and yes, it was a Grade 1 on a yielding course. He has also had a nice prep for this and though a mile may not be his ideal distance, he certainly could get the job done.

But there are others to like in here.

Baryshnikov has gotten so much better this year, he is hard to ignore. He seems to be stepping forward with every start, and has the services of the red- hot rider Julien Leparoux who will be riding to keep the Churchill jock’s title when the meet ends today.

A big question in here…will Wise Dan like the turf? He is a speedy Grade 3 stakes winner on poly, by Wiseman’s Ferry out of a Wolf Power mare. His sire did win on turf in Ireland and the SAF Champion, Wolf Power on his dam’s side is turf as well. The pedigree doesn’t “scream” turf, but it would be no surprise. Wise Dan worked a respectable 48.4 on the Churchill turf course on Tuesday with the dogs up. Judging by the fact that General Quarters and Mr. Mardi Gras worked over the same course in 52.2 and 51.8, Wise Dan’s move was pretty good.

(Interestingly, Flat Out worked over the course the same day, in 50.2 and shipped to New York and won the Grade 2 Suburban by 6 & ½.)

And while I’m not trying to read too much into this, the fact remains that Wise Dan could love the grass, and if so he could make his presence felt.

Strike Impact is coming into this race off two game wins. The 16 time winner is in great form and loves Churchill. While he might be a cut below, 4 wins and a second out of 6 tries on the home course makes me think of Teak North in the UN on Saturday. Do I want another" horse for course" to beat me this weekend? ‘Nuff said.

A case can be made for most in here. It should be an exciting race to watch.

Who do YOU like?

The Bashford Manor

2011-07-02T09:57:00.000-04:00

The 110^th running of the Bashford Manor will take place today at Churchill Downs. This prestigious Stakes for 2 year olds was named after the ancestral home of Lord Baltimore in England. James Bennett Wilder, a relative of Lord Baltimore’s, built the estate in Kentucky and later sold it to thoroughbred breeder George Jones Long. Bashford Manor Farms was famous for producing 3 Kentucky Derby winners including, Azra (1892), Manuel (1899) and Sir Huon (1906)

With the Breeder’s Cup now offering a Cup race for 2 year old sprinters for the first time this year, a win over the track in a Graded Stakes could be a nice edge come November. And while we rarely see a classic horse emerge from this dash, Black Gold did win this and went on to win the 1924 Kentucky Derby.

A full field of 11 has been entered, but The Dale Romans trained Tarpy’s Goal has been cross entered in the Futurity at Belmont, on Sunday, which only drew 6 entrants.

The buzz horse in here is Sum of The Parts. A colt by Speightstown, out of the multiple graded stakes winner Enjoy the Moment, he earned a 94 Beyer first time out, while breaking slowly. He was visually impressive in his nearly 3 length win. With a lovely and smooth way of going, he has worked 4 times since the win in mid- May and trainer Tom Amoss is very high on him.

Another highly thought of colt is the Neil Howard- trained, Power World. Outrun early in his debut, he unleashed a furious run, circled the field and was up in time. By Distorted Humor, out of Purrfectly by Storm Cat, he is a half to the very talented multiple stakes winner Santa Catarina. He has worked twice since his June 11^th win.

The only colt that has won 2 is the Brett Calhoun trained, Lil Cherokee. It will be interesting to see how this Texas bred stakes winner shows up out of town.

Al Stall has a colt coming off a win on the poly at Keeneland, but he has been working well at Churchill. Friscan, by the recently deceased Maryland sire Two Punch, just hung on in his only outing, but has had some stamina works since then.

Bernie Flint has two in here, Bonaparte and Exactor. Both look talented. Exactor finished second, first time out to Sum of the Parts, and then came back and galloped in his next start. Will having a little more seasoning, BE the “x-factor?”

Stars of the future? We will see. It’s always exciting to scope out a new Saturday Afternoon horse.

Holiday Weekend Racing / Part 1

2011-07-01T09:45:00.000-04:00

The weather looks hot and dry, and the racing looks superb for this July 4^th Holiday weekend.

Saturday’s card at Monmouth has the Salvatore Mile and the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes. The latter, being a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeder’s Cup Turf.

The Salvatore Mile could be a re-match between Rule and Morning Line. ( Still can't believe there was never a horse in recent memory with that name.) I'm looking for a better effort from Rule being back on a fast track. There looks to be a lot of speed in the race, including Motivato with Joe Bravo up.

Which could set it up nicely for Friesan Fire.

Friesan Fire has been back with Larry Jones for the last two months. He is showing some sharp works and could be ready to roll.

My thoughts on the United Nations Stakes are at the Handicapper’s Corner (courtesy of TBA) at THOROFAN.

Take a look, and tell me what you think.

Steppin' Up and Stretchin' Out

2011-06-25T10:49:00.000-04:00

Will she or won’t she? The Iowa Oaks will be run tonight at Prairie Meadows as part of their 2011 Iowa Festival of Racing. The Grade 3 drew a short field of six 3 year old fillies and they will be going 1 & 1/16 over conventional dirt.

Already an “Oaks” winner at Fair Grounds, Daisy Devine looks to be the class of the field, though she threw in a bit of a clunker on Kentucky Oaks Day, when stepping up into a Grade 1. She’s been freshened and is working well.

Hearts on Fire is a consistent sort, never off the board in five starts, and has a race over the track.

Little Miss Holly showed a little more finish, with blinkers added, last out.

But take a look at Versailles Song. The lightly raced filly took some time to begin her campaign, but has won 2 out of 3. By Unbridled’s Song, out of the multiple Grade 1 winning mare Versailles Treaty, (Danzig) she has the pedigree to be any kind.

She will be stretching out for the first time and taking that big jump up in class. Both her winning starts have come from the one hole, once on dirt and once on poly -she seems have some tactical speed and would it surprise anyone if she can get the distance?

Is she good enough to beat these? Don’t know, but the possibility is there. And an off track could move her up. I guess we’ll know tonight about 10:15 when they are coming to the 8th pole.

Gratitude, Twitter and Some Saturday Racing

2011-06-24T15:49:00.000-04:00

What was Mother Nature thinking? This is Churchill Downs she was messing with. Good thing the Racing Gods and the venerable ghosts of the home of the Twin Spires stepped in and took some action. The F 1 tornado, with 105 mph winds, touched down at the mile chute at Churchill Downs, jumped around and damaged several barns. Miraculously, despite the structural devastation, no human or horse was injured.

Call it a blessing, call it a miracle, call it luck, whichever your perspective, the horse industry and its fans are all extremely thankful for the outcome. It could have been so much worse.

I have been reluctant to commit to Twitter, but I must say, it was fascinating to see the Wednesday night Tweets unfold as the weather played havoc in Louisville.

It is exactly what Twitter is good for, instant news updates from those on , or close to, the scene. I just may have to become a tweeticipant instead of just a tweetwatcher.

The Iowa Derby at Prairie Meadows on Saturday has a celebrity owner, if you are a country music fan. Sherriff Cogburn is owned by none other than Toby Keith’s Dream Walkin’ Farm and this colt can flat out run. It will be his 3^rd start off a layoff, and he must step up. He will be getting a big class test in the Derby with Astrology being the horse to beat.

But I will be rooting for The Big Dog Daddy. Celebrity owners, who find success in our game, bring a good vibe and a lot of good energy into racing.

Another man with a hat that could find himself in the Winner’s Circle Saturday is Larry Jones. Joyful Victory is my choice in the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont .The daughter of Tapit is 2 for 3 at the distance and gets a rider change to Ramon Dominguez. She is a quality filly, and if she wins this, she will add her name to an illustrious group of fillies to have won this Grade 1.

The New York Stakes, for fillies and mares on the turf goes as the 6^th and is at a mile and 1/4. Maybe a tough task for her, but I like La Cloche. She does her best running at Belmont and she just might appreciate the added distance. She is coming off a win, and two very sharp works. Perhaps not as good as her half sister Winter Memories, but I am willing to give her another chance, at this distance, and at a price.

Horses and Life, It's All the Same to Me

2011-06-20T11:26:00.000-04:00

These are the words of cowboy Buck Brannaman. Good ol’ cowboy wisdom. Ok, so Buck may not help any of us with choosing singles for a pick six carryover. But as one of the original “horse whisperers” he certainly can enlighten us on “reading “and understanding our equine friends, and how, in turn, this knowledge can richly impact our lives.

A winner at this year’s Sundance Film Festival, the documentary “Buck” will soon be coming to a theater near you. More on the film can be found at www.buckthefilm.com/

“Buck possesses near magical abilities as he dramatically transforms horses-and people- with his understanding, compassion and respect. The animal - human relationship becomes a metaphor for facing the daily challenges of life.”

Just like the words of wisdom from Winston Churchill “There is something about the outside of a horse that’s good for the inside of a man” - we can all use a dose of that.

Tonight’s NTRA Night School IS about Pick Six Strategies, however. I haven’t participated yet, but maybe it’s worth stopping by.

Mc Peek Exacta ?

2011-06-18T14:34:00.000-04:00

The Regret Stakes at Churchill today is a Grade 2 for 3 year old fillies, going a mile and 1/8 on the soft turf.

It could be the coming out party for the Ken Mc Peek-trained Bizzy Caroline. Breaking her maiden 2 races back at Keeneland, she was in front under a stranglehold on a very slow pace, and when asked in the lane, she cruised to an easy 2 length victory over a yielding course. Her next race against winners was not without trouble. Breaking a half step slow from the one hole, she saved ground and was reserved in hand, early on. At the 3/8ths pole as she was starting her run, she was carried out very wide, yet still maintained her drive, and won by 7. Manny Cruz who is riding very well, was in the irons that day, and rides her back today.

This looks like the right time for Bizzy Caroline to step up into Stakes Company, and her ML odds (6-1) are tough to ignore.

The other McPeek filly in here, is the much more accomplished, Kathmanblu, who is a stakes winner of over a half million dollars. She seems to be able to run on any kind of turf.

Dale Roman’s Tapit filly, Diva Ash is another one with talent. Last seen wiring the field in the Edgewood, she is also a horse to watch.

But the two Mc Peek fillies look tough to get by, and Bizzy Caroline looks to be any kind.

She looks to be a Saturday Afternoon horse.

Mud Lark

2011-06-12T11:30:00.000-04:00

Congratulations to Ruler On Ice, the winner of the 143 Belmont Stakes, and all his connections. Yes, I am shocked, and no matter what, even with the addition of blinkers and his win on a sloppy track, I never considered this horse. Though I like the added challenge of handicapping for an “off” track, I just didn’t think this horse was good enough.

But one thing I do know, the racetrack made the difference. I think as handicappers, we sometimes forget that horses can improve MANY, MANY lengths on a sloppy track.

Some horses relish it and move WAY UP. Some horses hate it, and don’t run a step. Some horses ignore it and it doesn’t seem to affect them at all.

But it certainly can change the outcome of a race. And I think that was the case with Ruler On Ice. His form showed that he liked the sloppy/sealed track at Delaware, when he broke his maiden in a five horse field. His breeding is not a distance pedigree, but certainly a wet track pedigree, with the Mr. Prospector influence on top and speedball Saratoga Six, on the bottom.

This was the key I guess, and still I admit, I didn’t give him serious consideration. When he shows up again, against the same class of horse on a dry track, I'm not sure what I will do.

I think that the track moved Stay Thirsty up, too. I always thought that this little horse had some class if he could stay with Uncle Mo this winter in all his workouts. His connections were praying for rain and they got it. He caught his racetrack.

Shackelford ran a good race, and just ran out of gas after a mile and a quarter. Still a gallant effort as far as I’m concerned.

Brilliant Speed ran a good one too. You still have to wonder if he should go back to synthetic, grass or try dirt again.

Poor Animal Kingdom. Talk about bad racing luck. But then you can look at it this way. It could have been so much worse.

So we move on, with still lots of questions concerning the three year old crop. Makes the second half of the year more interesting.

Other thoughts from the day-

Trappe Shot was truly impressive yesterday winning easily in 1:08 and 4.

Congratulations to My Baby Baby winning the Early Times Mint Julep at Churchill, IN FOAL TO CURLIN.

And who’s better than Havre de Grace? The Obeah at Delaware was a ROMP for her.

The Belmont Undercard / Paying Heed to My Virtual Stable

2011-06-11T05:58:00.000-04:00

Virtual stable early-entry notifications came pouring into my email Wednesday for the Belmont Day card. I received 5 emails and they were for the races 7 through 11, so I best pay attention.

And while I may add a few here and there in my pick 3’s or pick 4’s, here they are.

The True North is a Gr. 2 sprint for 3 and up and Trappe Shot gets the nod. I have always liked this horse and connections have him in the right spot now. His prep for this was just right and he should move forward from that. He has to beat the ex-claimer Calibrochoa, who got scary good at Aqueduct and is coming off a layoff, and D’Funnybone, who on a good day, can be tough.

The Woody Stevens is a Gr. 2 at 7/8ths of a mile for 3 year olds. My horse in here is Bold Warrior. I know, I know, he just broke his maiden. But I had him as a horse to watch as is he well bred and looks to be a talented colt. He is trained by a Master and there are no world beaters in here. I will include Arch Traveler, who is 2 for 3 at the distance, is happier back sprinting, and has a win at Belmont. So for me, I will use the “Jerkins”two.

The 9^th is the Grade 1 What a Game, a one turn mile on the turf. I will play Much Rejoicing who is out of the great mare Soaring Softly. Yes, this is a big step up for her, but turf is her game and I’m willing to take a chance. You know the price will be right. She’s a single for me.

The 10th is the Manhattan. The horse in my virtual stable for this one is Al Kahli. This horse can run a big one now and then. I will also use Bold Hawk. I do love Gio Ponti but he may not be at his best after coming back from Dubai. But can I really leave him out???

In the Belmont, it’s all about Shackleford for me. (see previous post) I have no qualms about his pedigree, I know he’s game, he’s appears to be still moving forward and he will be up front as far as he can go.

A few thoughts on the other Belmont Stakes entries:

I love MMM, but I am a bit worried about just how much he has done in a short period of time for a horse that is not even 3 yet. There will be a time when he hits a wall.

Animal Kingdom can win it all, but in my mind, he is a true turf horse, and his connections have already admitted he will be returning to the turf after the Belmont.

I will use Brilliant Speed in my exotics. He ran a good race in the Derby, comes in fresh and is by Dynaformer who can get equally good, turf and dirt horses.

Master of Hounds? Good horse, but too much travelling…it’s asking a lot…

Santiva, Stay Thirsty, Nehru, outside chances all…

And the rest? I would be shocked.

My Belmont Pick - Made In America

2011-06-10T15:43:00.000-04:00

Even if a horse has the breeding to go a mile and a half, it doesn’t mean they will want to do it with enthusiasm and in racehorse time. THAT takes HEART. And that is why the Belmont Stakes is called the Test of Champions.

We should see a great race Saturday in the Belmont. The first seven finishers from the Kentucky Derby plus five new shooters will get into the gate to run once around the mile and a half oval nicknamed Big Sandy.

A lot has been made of the stamina in the bottom half of the pedigree of the Derby winner Animal Kingdom. German breeding has been inferior for years when compared to other European and North American bloodlines. Perhaps this is changing a bit, but they have a long way to go. They are predominately turf horses that run long distances, but they are, on average, a cut below the top Grade and Group 1 stakes horses, worldwide. A good horse can come from anywhere, but with a few exceptions, it’s been my experience that, German horses win German races.

Germany has the world’s finest Olympic quality dressage and jumping horses. The various Wamblood breeds; Hanoverian, Westphalean, Rhinelander, Trakhener, Holstiener, Oldenburger, all from, and named after, the different regions of Germany, have dominated the world stage for centuries, but their Thoroughbreds???? Not!

So proceed with caution when evaluating the bloodlines and stamina of the German horse. I am not saying that Animal Kingdom can’t gallop past the field and dominate the Belmont, but keep in mind, that our North American bloodlines, though more speed favoring than other countries, can still produce many a great horse that will “run all day”. ON THE DIRT.

Those who look at Preakness winner Shackleford’s pedigree as speed only, should look again. Not only is there stamina rich blood on his dam’s side through Unbridled, but his sire Forestry, though a sprinter, is out of a Broodmare of the Year and Grade 1 winner, Shared Interest, who herself is by Pleasant Colony. This is true North American stamina breeding at its finest.

If Shackleford has the heart, he certainly has enough staying power embedded in his family tree, to get him to the finish line, in front, in the mile and a half test of champions. He has speed, which already gives him a tactical advantage, he is coming off a gutsy win and he is thriving at Belmont.

Good luck in your wagering this weekend and safe trips to all our equine friends.

June 9th - A Great Day in Belmont History

2011-06-09T14:18:00.000-04:00

June 9, 1973 “moving like a tremendous machine!”

June 9, 1984 “and Swale le-e-e-eads to the wire!”

June 9, 2007 “it’s going to be a filly in the Belmont!”

Looking back at the history of the Belmont Stakes, June 9^th , was a pretty special day. We had a Triple Crown winner in ’73 winning by 31 lengths, the third of Woody Steven’s 5 consecutive Belmont winners in '84 ( though that ended very sadly 8 days later) and a filly beating colts in '07 for only the third time in history, in a thrilling stretch drive.

Shackleford Works and His Sister WINS!!!!

2011-06-05T11:17:00.000-04:00

Shackleford worked 5/8ths at Belmont yesterday for his last big work before next Saturday's mile and a half Test of Champions.He was clocked in 1:00.37.
It was a relaxed, energetic move with a nice gallop out. He looks strong, healthy and happy. According to Romans, if he comes out of the work fine, he is a "go".
Here is the link , courtesy of NYRA video.

http://youtu.be/eWxw5WU64YQ

And a BIG THANK YOU!!! to the Preakness winner's big (1/2) sister, Afleeting Lady ( Afleet Alex x Oatsee) who broke her maiden in the 8th race yesterday at Churchill paying $41.80!

Sister Act

2011-06-04T12:22:00.000-04:00

With a quick look at the Churchill card, two fillies stand out, not only because of what they have or haven’t done, but because of who they are related to.

Churchill’s Dogwood Stakes (Gr.3) looks like the coming out party in stakes competition for Might, the full sister to Blame. She has been brought along slowly and methodically and is a head shy of being undefeated from 3 starts. She has a win at Churchill, and though she is the same body type as her famous brother, mentally she is a lot hotter than he was. Still, she looks to have a bright future.

In the 8^th, a maiden race going a mile, is Afleeting Lady. By Afleet Alex, out of Oatsee, this is Preakness winner Shackleford’s older half sister. Though she hinted at ability last year at Gulfstream, it hasn’t been pretty since then. In her next start at Belmont, in May, something went very wrong, and she was vanned off. After almost a year off, she returned and went to the turf at Gulfstream and experienced a troubled trip. After a short break, blinkers were added, and still nothing. Then a try on the poly at Keeneland, where she showed a little life, but faded.

Since her April race at Keeneland , she has had a trainer change to Romans and has worked 3 times at Churchill, with the last being a sharp 5/8ths, the best of 19. Is this a sign of a turn-around? Does she deserve another chance? A look at her in the paddock might give us some clues.

Will Streaker Step Up?

2011-06-03T13:48:00.000-04:00

The Vagrancy Handicap (G2) will be run tomorrow at Big Sandy at 6 and ½ furlongs. Hilda’s Passion is the only graded stakes winner in the race and because of that, she will be toting highweight of 123. There are so many things to like about this filly. She is undefeated at the distance, loves to get out and set the pace, has earned almost a half million bucks, and is ridden by the red-hot Javier Castellano. If she can get loose on the lead, this filly could be long gone.

But you better take a look at Streaker. Could this be another in a long line of classy fillies from the Phipps breeding dynasty? A half to the brilliant, but ill fated, Pine island, Streaker could be ready to take it to the big stage. Winner of 3 out of 4 last year, her comeback race this year was a good one. Bobbling slightly at the start, she saved ground on the rail, then altered course, and kicked in nicely down the lane. Still a little green yet she won off with authority. She has come out of the race with two nice works and draws the outside post. She is in with 115, and though she loses Castellano, that could be a choice he may regret.

Matlacha Pass, the dam of Streaker, is out of Our Country Place, who is out of Maplejinsky. She is the dam of Sky Beauty who won the Vagrancy TWICE and was Distaff Champion of 1994. Sky Beauty will be inducted in the Hall of Fame this year. It is a bottom line full of both high class speed and stamina influences.

Streaker could be the next one to bring rewards to this dynamic female family. Shug is having his usual outstanding meet, with 33% in the money, and he is, and always has been, a master with the fillies. Saturday could be Streaker’s day to successfully step up into the filly and mare Stakes division.

A Different Kind of "Riding Double"

2011-05-29T12:07:00.002-04:00

Robbie Alberado rode Wilcox Inn to victory on the turf in yesterday’s Arlington Classic. In doing so, he used young Michael Baze’s girths as part of his tack. Baze broke Wilcox Inn’s maiden last year (beating Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom). One would guess Michael Baze was riding, with Robbie, from the heavens.

Another great jockey from the Baze family, Michael was found dead in his car on May 10, at Churchill Downs. Just 24 years old, he had already won over 900 races and had his whole riding career ahead of him.

It was like “riding double.” Not that Robbie needed any help, but maybe there’s some good karma there, and maybe he’s finding some of that silver lining that he’s been searching for.

An Exciting Photo Finish

The best finish yesterday was without a doubt the Louisville Handicap. It was a three way photo between three very game horses. Keertana, running against the boys, got the bob over the fast closing Bearpath and the ultra game, Guy’s Reward. That makes 11 wins from 26 starts for the mare that refuses to lose, and loves Churchill Downs. Guy’s Reward ran the race of his life and Bearpath took advantage of the pace. This was as exciting a race as you will see going a mile and a half.

Time For Some Turf

2011-05-27T20:18:00.000-04:00

There's lots of good turf racing around the country this weekend.

Here are a few of the races I will be looking at.

The Arlington Classic is for straight 3 year olds, going 1 & 1/8 on the turf. Wilcox Inn looks like he has found the right spot. He is the class of the field, but it won’t be easy. He is back on his preferred surface, and will be adding blinkers. Don’t forget, he beat the Derby winner when breaking his maiden. Is it my imagination, or is Harlan’s Holiday quickly becoming a “turf sire?” Two more just won this afternoon, one at Woodbine and one at Belmont.

Anyway, Proctor’s horse, Extensive has never been off the board on turf. Suntracer has had 3 wins on turf, but has never won at the distance. And Sandy’s Diamond has a little longshot look to me as he has improved with blinkers. He has had some good efforts on the grass.

At Churchill, I will take a look at the Grade 3 Louisville Handicap. I’m going to give Guy’s Reward a chance in here. He has never been this far, but he closes in all his races. He may be a cut below these, but maybe, just maybe, the added distance could be the answer for him. It is curious to me that Kertana is in here. She is a lovely mare and could beat the boys, but why not keep her against her own kind, for a grade 2 with more money? Her trainer says she likes the 3 turns and he would prefer not to ship.

Belmont’s Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay would have been a walk in the park for Kertana. Could Belle Watling take them all the way? She is not facing Havre de Grace or Kertana in here, and she is returning to turf. I am not a fan and rarely back her connections, but she could be lone speed in here. She is a winner of 13 races and she is getting some much needed class relief. Cheetah looks good in here as well. She beat the boys at Kempton, and even though Kempton is not Ascot, it’s still not an easy thing to do.

In Woodbine‘s 9^th, an allowance for “other than” or never won two, I will give Purple Trillium another chance. The 5 year old mare just started her campaign last month as a FIVE YEAR OLD. (Why, I don’t know) but her maiden score was visually impressive. She bobbled a bit, at the start of her second race, and then perhaps bounced a little. She is a daughter of Seeking the Gold out of the great mare Perfect Sting, and she could have some good races in her this year.

In the Lamplighter at Monmouth, Beachcombing is the horse. He is returning to turf, and may have a tactical advantage over the Team Valor horse. He could sit right behind the speed and get the jump on the favorite.

A happy and safe holiday weekend to all and enjoy the good racing ‘round the country.

Ready to Run

2011-05-22T11:35:00.000-04:00

Being around horses all my life, I have seen most everything. And I try to use horse sense all the time when visually analyzing a horse and their body language in the few pre race minutes either in the paddock or the post parade. Most of the time I am at the mercy of the video on my computer screen or TV, and the person who is behind the camera.

But there is a handicapping rule I live by. Are you listening? When a horse is full of himself in the paddock, I don’t mean over- the- top-unwound-lost- it, but throwing a good buck here and there, that’s when I RUN to the windows.

This all started when I was lucky enough to be in the Preakness infield saddling area for the brilliant Alysheba. Having placed all my bets on the son of Alydar, we were all ushered over the track surface to the area where the horses would be saddled. Anyone who remembers how he touted himself that day knows what I am talking about. How I so wanted to head back to the windows and bet everything I had in my pockets, but you were not allowed to walk back until the race was over. His race was spectacular and I was happy to be hob-knobbing with racing royalty, but how I wished I could have gotten back to the windows.

That won’t ever happen again, not with phone accounts!!!

But I have used this “handicapping tool” many times and have been rewarded.

While many experts thought that the big red boy was becoming unwound in yesterday’s Preakness, they missed something very important. After Shackleford threw a few good bucks in the paddock, his handlers immediately positioned him by his trusty pony, where for the next 5-10 minutes he was as calm as a pussycat. He even cocked his back leg, (what a horse does when they are “at rest”). This was a HUGE sign to me that this horse was, 1) Very content, 2) very relaxed and, 3) Thinking” I want to run but I will behave.”

Shackleford wasn’t coming unwound, he was excited to run. He was ready to run a big one and he did. If he came unglued, like everyone thought, I don’t have to tell you how he would have finished.

So I doubled down.

Thank you Shackleford!

Preakness 136

2011-05-21T09:23:00.000-04:00

The weatherman is calling for sun and 84 degrees. The track will be fast, but it may not be “quick”. The turf should be upgraded from the very yielding course it was on Friday. It’s worth noting that there were lot of turf races on Friday and the track was a little cut up. Turf runners will need to find a good lane.

As I have said before, I will be happy if Animal Kingdom wins the Preakness and goes on to be a Triple Crown winner. If the Racing Gods are in the mood, then it could happen. He beat the Derby field convincingly and now he just has to have a good trip and do it all over again.

But, let’s consider a few other options.

I am intrigued by Dance City. He is a big good looking colt, with a speed over stamina pedigree. He looks like he has those Pleasant Colony genes. He is lightly raced and, has already shown gameness in his short career. Who knows just how good he is?

Shackleford ran a very good race in the Derby and now is cutting back. If he can sit and wait, behind what looks to be a race with pace, he could show us another good effort.

Mucho Macho Man may still be improving. I don’t think you can leave him out.

I will use Dialed In as well. He may not have liked the Churchill surface. If he can get a better hold of the track, early on, and not lose contact with the field, he will come flying late.

What to make of Mr. Commons? You know John Sherriffs doesn’t ship for fun. This horse has worked forwardly since the Santa Anita Derby and there will be no question about his fitness and his preparedness. He is a winner on dirt and turf in his short career. Does he belong with these?

The Dixie on turf is the first race of the year for the talented multiple graded stakes winner Paddy O Prado. If he is fit enough to handle the soft and tiring turf course, off a layoff, then he is a cinch in here. The son of El Prado should be bigger and stronger this year and looking down the road to this year’s major races for older horses. The local horse Pocket Patch, posted a huge number on a yielding turf course last year. He will be getting his preferred surface, but is definitely a notch or two below the favorite. Graham Motion’s Slews Answer started his career, this year as a four year old. He is improving and looks to have some talent, but is he ready to face Paddy?

If you are playing the Pick 3 or Pick 4, and you are looking at the Schaefer, don’t forget that Ichabod Crane did very well at Pimlico in the 2008 Preakness when he finished 3^rd to Big Brown after a troubled trip. The NY bred has never been off the board at the distance. But it is a contentious field of older runners, with Apart, Colizeo and Pleasant Prince, all looking live in here. The mile and a sixteenth is a perfect distance for Colizeo and he could take them wire to wire in here.

If you need something other than the favorite in the Gallorette, take a look at Dyna Waltz. She has experience on soft turf, she has won going short and long, will surely be fit enough. Those Dynaformers get better as they get older.

If Shared Account does not enjoy the going, I think Sheppard’s horse has a good chance to take it all.

Enjoy Preakness Day!

Good luck with all your wagers and a safe trip for all our equine friends.

The Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico

2011-05-20T11:44:00.000-04:00

As a prelude to Preakness Day tomorrow, there are some good races today at Pimlico, including the Grade II Black-Eyed Susan. For 3 year old fillies, at a 1 & 1/8, it is named after the state flower of Maryland and the flower that will adorn the Preakness winner’s blanket tomorrow. (Modified Gloriosa Daisies are actually used for the blanket, because Black Eyed Susans are not in bloom yet.)

The “Susan” is a short field of 6, and most all have a chance. The favorite will be Wyomia, though her trainer says she travels better on synthetics. JLep takes the call on this versatile filly and she is definitely the class of this field. Hot Summer is the other filly who will take lots of action; she has Ramon D. and will be going 2 turns for the first time.

Who will like the stretchout and the added distance is the question in here, as none of these fillies have ever run 1 & 1/8. Maybe you need to look at Royal Delta, who should love the distance, being by Empire Maker, out of an AP Indy mare. You will have to throw out her race at Tampa, when soundly beaten by Wyomia. It was her first race back after a 5 month freshening, and the Tampa surface is a tough surface to win on first time out. Buster’s Ready appears to be rounding to form after unsuccessfully beginning her campaign on turf, and it’s JV and Pletcher, and Edward Evans breeding, which you can never discount

Following the “Susan” is The Very One, a turf sprint for fillies. Rose Catherine is the class of this group, who, before running against colts, reeled off 4 straight wins. She could rebound in here. Seven year old Suzzona is just a win machine, and though she has always run cheaper, 13 wins at the distance on turf, shows her remarkable consistency. A good trip and some luck could get her there.

But look out for Supreme. A well-bred filly by Empire Maker, her first start on turf at Tampa, was visually impressive for her late turn of foot, despite a troubled trip.

Today will be a good day to watch and wager and a good warm-up for the big day tomorrow.

Where's My Preak?

2011-05-18T19:52:00.000-04:00

For some reason, I am having a hard time getting my “preak” on. It’s 3 days before the middle jewel of the Triple Crown and I feel like I should be more excited, and have a clearer picture of the contenders. Don’t get me wrong, if we are looking at a potential TC winner, I’m all for that. But are we?

Animal Kingdom surprised a lot of people. And he ran a great race. Is he THAT good? I guess, in my book, I’m just not sure yet. I feel like I need to see another great race out of him before I’m convinced.

Mucho Macho Man continues to train like a racehorse should. Another very good work this week; you just cannot deny that this horse keeps moving forward.

And will Shackleford move forward off his Derby effort? Cuz if so, what will we see? The pace should be faster, can he sit and wait?

Zito keeps saying Dialed In is the best three year old in the country. Still.

Should we consider Dance City? His win over Cal Nation was as game as they come. And now that the Arkansas Derby has become the most formfull of the preps, you can’t ignore him. He has that speed over stamina pedigree that could prove very tough, the more seasoned he gets.

Mr. Commons is intriguing too - a win on dirt, a win on turf, bullets on synthetic….here we go again…

And will we be handicapping for an “off” track?

Maybe in a day or so, I will find my Preak…

Why Not Newsdad?

2011-05-14T06:14:00.000-04:00

OK, let’s try this again. Last week I did not use the Derby winner in my wagers because I wasn’t totally convinced that he could handle the dirt. Yes, even with a very good work on it. It is always a judgment call, and again, if I had been at Churchill to witness the work myself, I may have done things differently. But we can’t be everywhere all the time, so it can be a guessing game.

In my attempt to not get beat AGAIN by a turf/synth horse going to the dirt, my pick for the Grade 2 Peter Pan at Belmont is….Newsdad.

Here is a nice colt by Arch who seems to be steadily improving. His last try in the Blue Grass, was a good one. He was down inside for most of the race, behind a slow pace, showing lots of energy, with nowhere to go. When he finally swung out, he was cut off momentarily and then dove inside still searching for some running room, but by then, it was too late. He finished a respectable 4th, a length behind the winner Brilliant Speed.

Newsdad’s only attempt on dirt was his first race where he seemed unprepared for the start and broke very slowly. He had a nice little middle move, and then flattened out. I am going to guess that that dirt try was a learning experience with a bad start and not an indication that he didn’t like the surface.

His dam’s side is the turf influence, but you cannot ignore his daddy Arch, who continues to give us a good many top dirt winners.

He is dropping 7 pounds from the Blue Grass, and is picking up Alan Garcia. The distance will not be a problem for him, as it may be for others in here that have never gone this far. This colt has been closing into some slow pace scenarios, so with more pace in the Peter Pan, the race could set up better for him.

Newsdad and Alternation are the only 2 coming out of Grade 1’s, and though the Arkansas Derby may prove to be more formful than the Blue Grass down the line, Alternation did get beat almost 6 lengths.

Other contenders…It is interesting that Kentucky Derby winning jockey John Velasquez has taken the call on Uncle Brent as he probably could have ridden Joe Vann, if he wanted to. And was the flashy last out Beyer from Adios Charlie because of the sloppy track, or is he the real deal? Is he more than just a mud loving sprinter that carried his speed a little farther because of the wet track? And Prime Cut was originally eyeing the Preakness, but his connections chose this “softer” spot.

Lots of questions here, but I am giving Newsdad a chance to prove he can win a big one on the dirt in the Peter Pan.

Oaks/Derby Weekend Thoughts and a New Tradition For Me?

2011-05-10T12:26:00.000-04:00

Well you have to like BIG Crowds if you want to take part in the Oaks/Derby on- track experience! Just to compare numbers….attendance for Oaks Day was almost three times that of Breeder’s Cup Friday last year, and the Derby attendance was more than double that of Breeder’s Cup Saturday. Getting to the windows could be challenging, but if you made it through the crowds, the betting lines were average for a big race day. Maybe that was because people resorted to their phones. I know I did, more than once. A twenty minute power loss before the 7th race had a few people nervous, but that was quickly resolved.

Blame’s little sister Might, did just what her connections expected, by winning her NW1 by almost 5 lengths.

Diva Ash, another nice Tapit filly, beat a nice group in the Edgewood, on turf.

Blind Luck was GAME in the Grade 2 La Troienne after going to her knees at the start. She looks a little bigger, stronger and more filled out since last year. Could this filly have another huge year ahead?

First Dude has become a man this year. He has grown up and matured. Stalking the pace in the Alysheba, he got up in time, over Regal Ransom.

Congrats to the Oaks winner Plum Pretty. My longshot St John’s River made for an exciting finish. I was disappointed in Joyful Victory, just not her day I guess.

Thank You! to Get Stormy and his two friends, Doubles Partner and Smart Bid for making my weekend a financial success.

Did not believe in Animal Kingdom before the Derby, but I do now. And I am very happy for Graham Motion and John Velasquez as they are hard working, class acts and very deserving of the big win.

The Derby party I attended was great fun. I would like to know how many red roses were sold in Kentucky for Derby Day? Because I couldn’t tell you how many dozens were on display at this party. And Maker’s Mark Mint Juleps were the best! There were door prizes, great food and drink, every Derby decoration you could think of, and a silent auction for each and every derby entrant for participants to bid on and then root for.

Kentuckians, whether horse people or not, take their Derby Parties very seriously. And it was fun to experience it in the Horse Capital of the World with friends, both old and new. Could be an annual tradition in the making for me!

Early Morning Flight, Early Derby Picks

2011-05-05T20:04:00.000-04:00

I will be taking off on a 6 a.m. flight tomorrow headed for Louisville with my Racing Form in hand. Plenty of time for more studying, not sure it will help, but this is what we do!

I am excited about being at my first Kentucky Oaks. And while I take it all in tomorrow, I will probably change my mind more than a few times about who I bet, and how I bet, in the Derby on Saturday. But I have at least narrowed it down somewhat.

I will not be using Uncle Mo if he runs. I doubt that he will, but if he does, and he wins, so be it. It is just obvious to me that he is not 100%.

As for Dialed In, I have only recently been interested in him, because I can’t understand the lack of works in the last five weeks. But I guess you have to trust Nick Zito on that one. What I do like about him, when I finally got a good look at him in several videos, is that , though he is not a big horse, he stands over a lot of ground. And I like that in a horse. Will I use him? I suppose….

I have been a big fan of Oatsee’s son, Shackleford. He has been training up a storm and looks great by all accounts. Will he get the distance? Big question, but the breeding on the dam’s side says “yes he can”. And a win over the track doesn’t hurt.

There is no more consistent horse than Much Macho Man. I love that in a horse. He will show up and he will try, no matter what.

I think Santiva deserves respect. He has a win over the track at Churchill. And he had nowhere to go in the Blue Grass. He’s a maybe.

I will give Brilliant Speed a look too. It could just be that his earlier races on dirt were not productive because they were sprints. Dynaformer is certainly not just a “grass” sire, but he does sire horses that need to run long. He has won on two surfaces, why not dirt too?

And then there’s ArchArchArch. He should love the distance and Jon Court is in ‘the zone” with 3 wins today at Churchill. The momentum could keep on going.

Good luck to all who wager. It’s a day when you can bet little and win big!

Enjoy the great racing and safe trips to all our equine friends!

Fillies First

2011-05-04T19:13:00.000-04:00

Right at the moment I have a better handle on just who I like in the Oaks. Despite the one hole, I think that Joyful Victory is the class of a great group of fillies. She has gotten even better with blinkers, and if Larry Jones thinks she’s the real deal, then that’s enough for me. The other gray Tapit filly, Zazu, could round out the exacta for me, if she takes to Churchill. She has worked steadily since her neck beat in the Santa Anita Oaks, and I think she will appreciate the extra ground. Kathmanblu must not be discounted, as she is versatile and is a stakes winner over the track. I am intrigued by long shot, St. John’s River. She is improving and if the track is wet, could love it, being out of a Private Account mare. For me, she is a must use in the exotics.

But I truly think that Joyful Victory is a cut above all of these.

Now the Derby is not as clear to me. I do know that even if Uncle Mo runs and there is still a chance he may not, I will probably not be backing him. The 2 year old champ could run and win, and I will accept it, but I just don’t think he’s at his best right now, with his “stomach issues.” As of this week, he was still on meds and I’m hearing he’s kind of light. Just not the way you want to see a horse coming into the Derby.

Stay tuned for my Derby selections. Now I just have to figure out what clothes to pack for Churchill... besides rain gear, that is.

This Week, You Need to "Read" the Horse

2011-04-29T14:18:00.000-04:00

This week, reading "the horse" is far more important than reading "the form".

We are entering the final week of training and preparations for the Oaks and Derby - bound horses. If you are not at Churchill Downs this week, then I can’t stress enough, the importance of finding those experienced horse people that are there and reporting on how each horse looks, acts and trains. Three year olds at this time of the year can change dramatically from week to week. You hope to see horses holding their conditioning, with a blossoming, dappled out coat; galloping and working with enthusiasm, with no signs of mental or emotional stress. While their so-called "serious" training is mostly done, you want to see horses that are sharp and are looking for more to do. They are the ones that are ready to peak. They are the ones that are getting ready for the performance of their careers.

And I put the word "serious" in quotes for a good reason, but that might be for another chat, at another time.

I enjoy the boys from TCI who I have been watching for about a year now. I keep their link on this blogsite. They have a good eye for a horse and they know what they are looking at. Though I don’t know their background, it’s odds-on that they are experienced horsemen. Mike Welsh from the DRF is pretty sharp too. HRTV’s Jeff Siegel, Jill Byrne and (now Richard Migliore as well) are three more horsepeople who’s assessments I pay attention to. And Simon Bray and – just where is Frank Lyons? - from TVG are worth listening to.Yes, you can argue that these are still "opinions" but horsepeople can read a horse and that, more than reading the form, is what's critical now.

Pay attention to what your horses are doing this week. They need to have a great week if they are expected to show up with their “A+” game next Friday and Saturday.

Saturday's Bits and Pieces

2011-04-23T10:46:00.000-04:00

Shackleford worked this morning on the sloppy Churchill surface, 5 furlongs in 1:00.20, the best of 9. Kathmanblu and Noble’s Promise worked the same distance, in a much slower 1:02.

Oatsee’s boy appears healthy, sharp, and now we know he doesn’t mind an off track. All he needs is some luck to get into the Race.

The Rainbow Pick Six will be given away today at Gulfstream. It’s like the ultimate Easter Egg Hunt for handicappers, but if you have the time to put it, Why not? Good Luck to all.

R.I.P. Jess Jackson… like his style or not, for a short time he was a big presence in the racing world and his horses gave us many memorable performances.

Can Rattlesnake Bridge make the jump into Stakes competition? Well, he IS by Tapit.

Go TEAM!!!!! in the PAIHL today.

To Twitter, or not to Twitter… that is the question.

Turf Fillies Growing Up

2011-04-21T08:25:00.000-04:00

The feature at Keeneland today is the Grade 3 Appalachian for 3 year old fillies going a mile on turf.

There’s a full field of 12 with 2 AE’s at this time. And what nice field it is. It’s always exciting to see promising two year olds, hopefully, get even better at 3.

Winter Memories is the headliner. Her 3 starts last year were mesmerizing and though she finished second in the Breeder’s Cup Fillies Turf, she marked herself as an exciting prospect.

According to her trainer Jimmy Toner, who knows the family well...

"The filly has done everything right since the Breeders' Cup," Toner said. "We took her down to Palm Meadows and turned her out in the round pen for about a month, gave her time to fill out, unwind, and develop. She's been on a steady program since January, and knock on wood, she's been training very good. I believe she's put on some weight and matured the way you'd like to see. The main thing Thursday is to just get her started. We've got a plan for her the rest of the year, but let's get through this and let everything else take care of itself."

Winter Memories is by El Prado out of the Silver Hawk mare Memories of Silver who won the 1996 Grade 1 QE Challenge Cup at Keeneland and who amassed lifetime earnings of over 1.4 million.
Will the filly need a race?

Smart Sting is another in here who looks to have a world of talent. Undefeated in her two lifetime starts, she is by Smart Strike out of Distaff Turf Champion, Perfect Sting. Her 2011 campaign started smartly with an allowance win at Gulfstream and she had worked steadily since. She already has had that race to shake the dust off, so now the question is …
Can she step up to Stakes Company?

Ruthenia is another undefeated filly in here that is making her first start of the year. Out of Ruthian, she is a full sister to Rutherienne, a multiple Grade 1 winner on grass with earnings of 1.3 million and some of that earned at Keeneland. She has been at Payson Park all winter, and should be fit.
Is she stakes quality and can she overcome the outside post?

Parting Words deserves a look in here. She had lots of trouble in her last race, her first against Stakes Company. With a clean trip, she could be tough. Though Garcia has opted to ride Ruthenia, could there be a better replacement than JLep?

New Normal cannot be discounted either. A Courtland Farm homebred, she is already a graded stakeswinner who loves to be on the lead. She is training up a storm and could be long gone in the lane.

Could Diva Ash surprise? This Tapit filly is progressing nicely and might have an outside chance.

Almost every horse has a little bit of a “look” in this race.This will be an exciting race to watch and wager on and a great way to start another great weekend of stakes action from Keeneland.

The 87th Blue Grass Stakes

2011-04-15T17:03:00.000-04:00

Who would have ever thought that the Blue Grass, always a huge and important prep for the Derby would have a field of very talented turf horses? But it is now a reality since Keeneland has changed over to a synthetic track, and we are seeing more and more “turf” horses trying to build up enough earnings to get to run for the roses.

However, when this prestigious race comes up, I think, “I wish this was still on conventional dirt.” It’s just the traditionalist in me.

So much for wishes, but it’s a good race none the less. It’s no secret that I have been a big fan of Willcox Inn since the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf last year. He has had good races on turf and poly. In his “off the turf” maiden breaker at Arlington he beat Animal Kingdom the winner of the Grade 3 Spiral. He then had a very nice effort, behind probable Blue Grass favorite Santiva in the Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland.

His first race this year came at FG on yielding turf going 7/8ths, a good effort to set him up for this as running on a yielding course is more work than running on a firm course. I love a horse that can run on anything, and despite the quote from his connections, if he were to win or finish second, I think they will be “derby dreamin’”, though he would be trying dirt for the first time. But we won’t get ahead of ourselves; he looks very well spotted for this event. Even a second would get him in, if the connections elect to go. And Anna Rose has figured out where the finish line is at Keeneland, so he looks very live.

Here is his work at Keeneland last Saturday.

The probable fave, Santiva is another who has been very versatile on every surface. Also, he doesn’t seem to care who trains him or who rides him. He just goes about his job. Though he has improving numbers, he is coming off an 8 week layoff, and I wish he didn’t have so many gaps in his short career. Though maybe that’s just because he has switched barns 3 times!

Queens’platekitten, broke his maiden on polytrack, so we know he likes it.

Will King Congie like the poly? He is 3 for 3 since switching to turf and stretching out. He likes to win, so look out if he takes to the surface. He is one of 4 in here trying synthetic for the first time.

And Newsdad is an interesting horse as he finished right behind “Queen'splate” in the Palm Beach, and I will use him in my exotics. He looks like a horse that wants to run all day, so if he polytracks, look out.

Weekend Review

2011-04-11T14:02:00.000-04:00

Lots has already been written and said about Uncle Mo’s loss in the Wood. I can’t say I am totally surprised. He has had a light- no make that – a non- existent campaign so far this year and we are 4 weeks out from the Derby. The Wood was really his only test in 5 months -I can’t count the Timely Writer - and he failed.

Either he hasn’t progressed from 2 to 3, or something is wrong in Paradise. Todd P. did not forget how to get a horse fit, I can tell you that. This is NOT a question of fitness.

Anyhow, Toby’s Corner and runner-up Arthur’s Tale both ran improved races and seem to be headed in the direction you want to see with a 3 year old this time of year. Both have the pedigrees to want to go further.

On the West Coast, ok, I don’t know what to say about how Victor rode Midnight Interlude, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby. Yes, he won, but is it me? … Did he have to ride him SO HARD from the top of the stretch to the wire, I mean, he got the job done, but for a lightly raced colt, will that effort take its toll come Derby Day?

Comma To the Top ran huge too. Has he peaked? Can he put his body on the line again, in a month?

I liked Mr. Commons’ performance. Mike Smith asked him several questions in the race, and he had the answers. He came up a little short, but that was a sneaky good ride.

The very best horse that ran this weekend could very well have been Fox Hill Farm’s 3 year old filly, Joyful Victory. A short field in the Fantasy but Arienza, made her work a little and that’s just what she needed to set her up for the Oaks. She won with plenty left, and her win was as solid and stylish as anything I’ve seen this year.

Mike Smith has his Oaks filly, and I have my Oaks filly too. I predict a joyful victory in the Oaks for trainer Larry Jones and owner Rick Porter. I think it’s meant to be.

The Comely Stakes, Then and Now

2011-04-09T08:35:00.000-04:00

I have been blessed to be in a lot of winner’s circles. But it’s always that much sweeter when it’s on the big stage.

A childhood friend of my dad’s had a number of nice horses on the NY circuit. Avie’s Gal was one of them. Having a horse in a stake in New York meant you were wined and dined by NYRA in the Trustee’s room and that in itself was special. And winning made the day a magical one.

The Comely was run the very day after Winning Colors won the Derby. And D.Wayne Lucas was back in NY figuring he was going to win another.

NOT. We made such a racket as the race unfolded, that he was actually looking around to see just who we were and more importantly, who was this horse that just beat him.

Great memories (and a few bucks) were made that day!

A little history about the Comely Stakes… It was inaugurated in 1945, and named after a 2 year old filly, who beat older males in the first running of the Fall Highweight Like THAT would ever happen again!

Earlier winners include Best in Show, Bed o’ Roses, Lamb Chop, What a Treat, Forward Gal, Ta Wee Ruffian, Mom’s Command and the list goes on….

The 2011 version of the Comely, on the Wood Memorial card, looks like the Todd Pletcher/ E. Paul Robsham train will continue to roll along. The NY bred, Ava K (hmmm…Ava.. Avie?) looks solid in here and I wouldn’t be surprised if Royal Sighting got a piece.

There's great racing today, from coast to coast. Good luck to all that are participating!

Keeneland's Opening Day

2011-04-08T07:13:00.000-04:00

It’s like a Holy Day of Obligation.

I’ve been fortunate to attend the Spring meet many times, though it’s doubtful I will get there this year. Even so, I will be in attendance” in spirit”. Looks like the temps will be in the 70’s with a 40% chance of showers. Even a rainy day at Keeneland is just about better than being anywhere else today. The trees are starting to bloom. The grass is lush and green, both on the turf course and also over the miles and miles of farm land that surrounds the Lexington area. Foals are frolicking, pregnant mares are lying in the sun, stallions are busy doing what they do and race goers at the track just couldn’t be happier.

It’s really the perfect time to be in Kentucky.

The first race is a baby race at 4 and ½ furlongs with a Wesley Ward entry. He is so good at winning with babies. And if anyone knows who trainer Gennadi Dorochenko is, could you please tell me?

The fifth race is a nice turf event for fillies. Senada (Pulpit x Owsley), is a half to Arthur’s Tale who is running in the Wood on Saturday against Mo. Looks like a good race to handicap.

The 7th is a nice sprint and maybe Anna Rose can help Mott out of his slump if Delano likes the polytrack.

The Transylvania on turf for three year olds is always a good race. We will see the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile winner Pluck and Air Support who was 5th behind him. In the race is another nice War Front, Great Mills, who is going for a 4-peat, Canadian invader Stormy Rush, the consistent Powhatan County, a Clement runner and a Proctor runner.

And again, who is Gennadi Dorochenko? He has one in there too.

There’s sixteen days of quality racing starting today and ending on Friday the 29. Lots of fan friendly bets too, (50 cent minimums) including the new 50 cent pick 5.

Whether you are lucky enough to be on track or not, don’t miss racing at Keeneland.

Lunch will be a bowl of burgoo and I’ll save room for some bourbon bread pudding…..

Dial "S" for Shackleford

2011-04-05T14:30:00.000-04:00

Just when you think the three year old picture might start to clear, it doesn't.
The head bob results of Sunday's Florida Derby left more questions than answers about just who has any talent in this group of boys that are trying to become men.

The winner, Dialed In, certainly ran the race that most hoped he would. Lagging behind early, he circled the field to get up in the final strides to beat the very game and vastly improving Shackleford. The latter ran much too good to lose.

I have heard and read several times since the race that Shackleford ran "the race of his life". Almost as if he didn't belong.This was his 5th lifetime start with two impressive allowance wins. Three year olds, can and hopefully will, improve race to race. But a clunker in his last, made him ignored by the betting public, going off at 63-1.

At the same time that he was showing improvement, several colts were not.

Looking back, others who appeared more worthy according to what the handicappers thought, decided Sunday wasn't their day. According to the connections of To Honor and Serve, he ran better than his last. Well at this rate, maybe they should set their sights on the Midsummer Derby instead of the one in 4 weeks.
Though they are not using it as an excuse, the blinker experiment didn't work out for Stay Thirsty. And Soldat apparently didn't appreciate being down inside and getting dirt.

This is why young horses need racing experience. You can't replicate in the a.m., what happens during a race. Young horses need to be tested and if they have any heart and courage, raceday is when it will materialize.

To me, Shackleford ran huge. He is a big, strong horse who looks like he may be putting it together at the right time. He made all the pace and his gallop out was strong. Look back at the replay and watch the one-two finishers gallop out and jog back next to each other.
This horse will win some big races.

Dialed In, with the emotional Nick Zito is easy to root for. As big as Dialed In ran, he looked like a tired little horse.Can he move forward from Sunday to bigger and better things?

A Hallmark Moment

2011-04-04T18:28:00.000-04:00

Check out the nearly life-size birthday card that this blog’s P.A.I.H.L team member, Anne, aka “Pick Six Annie” and her kindergarten class made and sent to Zenyatta at Lane’s End Farm.

Zenyatta celebrated her 7th birthday last Friday, with many of her “family members” from California in attendance.

Sounds like Zenyatta liked it a lot, so much so that it was shipped back to her old Barn at Hollywood Park.

Love the cotton ball blaze and hind socks!

To read more about Zenyatta's birthday celebration, click here, and check out diary entry 219.

What Color is Your Rainbow Pick Six ?

2011-04-03T10:23:00.000-04:00

I woke up this morning and decided that today was the day to play the 10 cent Rainbow Pick Six at Gulfstream. With the carryover of $902,000, it will be well over a million by post time of the 7th race. I am a fan of microbets but this will be the first time I try this bet. Sure, the takeout is high and it’s crazy to think I would ever end up with the lone ticket for the whole pot. But this is what people who play horses, do. It has been hit before and someone will hit it again.

I don’t often play the Pick Six. But when I have, I try to both handicap logically and, outside the box, too. Is this considered a strategy? I don’t know, but it’s the path I will take.

While I will most likely make some last minute changes, this is what I’m thinking. I will probably construct two or three tickets, with one or two singles. It looks to be a tough card today, but aren’t they all?

Race 7

Mobilizer / Storm on The Moon

Race 8

Little Mike / Asphalt

Race 9

Colizeo

Race 10

Soldat / Shackleford

Race 11

Krypton / Guys Reward

Race 12

White Hill / Perfect Afleet

2x2x1x2x2x2 =32 x .10 = $3.20

For a second ticket, I will stay with Colizeo as a single and also single Stay Thirsty. I will probably add a third horse in the 11th and the 12th.

2x2x1x1x3x3=36 x.10 = $3.60

So if my math is correct, that’s a lot of fun for 6 dollars and some change.

Good luck to anyone playing today. Someone is going to win that pot of gold.

Speaking of the Pick Six, Kudos ( again) to my teammates in the P.A.I.H.L over at Pace Advantage , this time it was “pick six Annie”, who broke alertly, got a good position, circled the field and pulled away to score decisively to keep us at the top of our division.

Go Team!!!!

Clarity or More Confusion after the Florida Derby?

2011-04-02T10:42:00.000-04:00

The best Derby prep so far this season is the Florida Derby on Sunday. Which one of these three year olds will prove that they are still on the right path to the feature race at Churchill on the first Saturday in May?

The morning line favorite, Soldat, certainly looks worthy. He has handled most everything thrown at him; fast, slop, and grass. He has the most experience both on the front end, and stalking. And he has the most seasoning, with 7 races at 4 different tracks. On top of that he is coming off 2 wins and three nice works since then. He has hit the gate and been jostled around, he has been inside and outside and still he has run well. He has been somewhat battled tested and has answered the call.

But what to make of a few of the others in here?

To Honor and Serve seemed to be a short horse when last seen in the Fountain of Youth. But am I the only one that doesn’t really buy this? Mott running a “short” horse? I’ve seen Bill Mott run horses off layoffs, going a distance of ground and they win and could go around again. Now granted, his forte has always been with older horses on turf, but something tells me that whatever is going on with To Honor and Serve has nothing to do with conditioning. Mott has said that maybe “the light turned off a little “ with this colt from 2 to 3.

So the big question is, does Garret know where the switch is?????

I’m not a big fan of blinkers going on a horse after a win. But maybe, just maybe, it is just what Stay Thirsty needs to focus and take that next step up. Funny, he didn’t need blinkers keeping his friend Mo company in their morning workouts. According to Pletcher, this is an experiment they want to try, before the big dance. No telling if he has worked with them on and just how he handled it.

It’s another big question mark.

Then there’s Dialed In. That turn of foot in the Holy Bull was explosive. Even more than that, he went inside, then outside, all the while just being hand ridden with Julien throwing a few crosses here and there. It showed he was relaxed, handy and willing. Maybe the biggest sign of the horse’s talent lay in the excitement that his usually reserved jock showed after the finish. Go watch the replay. Lots of love there. Following the Holy Bull, his race back against older, was maybe just what he needed to continue moving forward mentally.

The only other one in here that’s a little interesting to me is Shackleford. And that is because of Oatsee. Oatsee is the dam of Lady Joanne who won the Grade 1 Alabama at a mile and ¼. I know the ability to go longer is within Shackleford’s reach. The trouble is, he made a little run on the outside following To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth and then really just spit out the bit. The fact that he is back in here, with the same jock, makes me wonder if something went amiss. Maybe he entrapped? Or is he just not of this caliber? I may put the proverbial line through that race and use him in exotics.

I think we will have some answers after the Florida Derby is run. It may be the beginning of a little clarity on the Road to the Roses.

Happy Birthday Big Red!

2011-03-30T17:59:00.000-04:00

No one will ever dispute that one of the best horses to ever look through a bridle was the great Secretariat.

By Bold Ruler out of Somethingroyal, by Princequillo, the Virginia-bred was born 41 years ago today.

There will never be another.

Stayin' Alive

2011-03-27T17:32:00.000-04:00

Handicapping can sometimes be exhausting. Especially “team play”. When it’s your turn to make choices for yourself and your teammates, there’s always a little more pressure. But if you have a good day, it’s even more rewarding.

We are holding our own and stayin’ alive in the Pace Advantage Interboard Handicapping League Contest. And while trying to pick winners for that, I managed a decent showing in the Equibase contest (128 out of 1592).

Larry Jones is loaded for the Oaks, isn’t he? His Summer Soiree romped yesterday in the Bourbonette, her first time on synthetics. Another by War Front (The Factor, Soldat, Data Link), will she join her stablemate Joyous Victory (Tapit) in the gate on Oaks Day?

Did not even consider Pants on Fire yesterday in the Louisiana Derby, even with the “Rosie” Factor. Loved Animal Kingdom at Turfway, but what does his win on synthetic mean for the Derby?

Richard Migliore is doing a good job at HRTV. He’s has always been a class act. He is very articulate, as he‘s learning the ropes of commentating and he’s bringing some good insight to handicappers and race fans.

Sorry to see Mr. B and Chris Kotulak go, over at TVG. Enjoyed both, but especially Mr. B for all his experience in the game. And while racing does need to appeal to a younger crowd, it’s Mr. B’s generation who have the colorful stories of great horses and characters that have really made racing what it is today. Those that have been participating for 20-30 years? That’s nothing in this game.

So good luck to both gentlemen, I am sure there’s something bigger and better for them around the next turn.

Watching Dubai Racing And Other Things

2011-03-26T11:04:00.000-04:00

Even money favorite, JJ the Jet Plane, from South Africa, just won the Group 2 , 1 million dollar Al Quoz Sprint at Meydon this morning, cutting through the haze and the crowded field to just get up, in time.

Caton Bredar, atop a frisky pony, is interviewing the winning jock on the handsome bay, coming back after the race. As always, she is very professional and asks all the right questions, but she may have her hands full with this particular pony.

Ramon Dominguez is being interviewed at the moment, singing the praises of Gio Ponti. As he says, he is a push- button horse to ride, and a win here would be a dream come true for any jockey.

I don’t pretend to know much about the horses running today in Dubai, except for our American contingent. I wish all of them good trips. And I will be watching and rooting for the home team.

On the local front, there’s more than enough action here to keep my attention today. My Pace Advantage selections need to get in, but I have yet to get beyond my rough draft. I hope to fit in the Equibase contest, as well.

My fingers are crossed for Empire Maker, to make a complete recovery from colic surgery. As simple and as good as the preliminary reports are, colic surgeries are anything but simple.

Lots being written this week on the problems at the TRF. Let’s not forget all the good they have done, and all the help they need. There are plenty of people, much smarter than me, who should be able to figure out just where the money should come from.

Read an interesting comment by Rick Violette on the Railbird Blog. I am inclined to believe the facts as written by Mr. Violette. I have no problems with money coming from takeout to be diverted to TB retirement. The horses deserve it and it’s the right thing to do.

An article on breakage, by Steven Crist caught my attention

"The argument against providing true payouts like $2.06 or $2.39 has always centered on the flimsy issue of forcing mutuel clerks to deal with pennies. The real issue is that all those confiscated pennies add up to several million dollars a year in each of the largest racing jurisdictions, a sort of slush fund that is usually split between the track and the state and that neither is eager to give up."

OK, how about starting here? Let’s put all those pennies to good use for TB retirement.

I Want Revenge and Conveyance looked good in the Godolphin Mile, till the last 16th of a mile, then they got swallowed up .Godolphin’s Skysurfers battled gamely to the wire and won by a head, over Mufarrh. Now waiting for the famous dismount…and there it is!

Caton’s pony is still making faces at all the winners.

Another victory for the “house”. This time it’s Godolphin’s filly Khawlah ( the first filly ) to win the UAE Derby in a thrilling photo by a nose.

Late scratch of Kinsale King in the Golden Shaheen due to hives that popped up this morning.Now that's disappointing.

Ok, need to get down to business.. got to get to work and scope out some winners.

Hope everyone has a winning day!

Reality Check

2011-03-22T11:34:00.000-04:00

Another 3 and ½ million or so people got to see a glimpse of The Factor’s Rebel stretch run last night on the O’Reilly Factor, when host Bill O’Reilly included him in a segment. A very animated Bill, wished the horse and his owners a hearty congratulations and continued good luck on the road to the Derby.

Intermixed with stories on the air strikes in Libya; is Gaddafi a target, or not? Should he stay or should he go? ( what’s the hesitation? I vote Go… bye, bye) the nuclear disaster in Japan, and other glum world news, watching The Factor cruise at Oaklawn was a welcomed sight. It surely got some attention, and maybe brought in a few new fans.

Shown in the segment called “Reality Check”, I’m not sure if there’s anything to read into that. As in the further he goes, will there be a “reality check?.” But for now, highlighting what’s exciting and good about Horse Racing on the #1 cable news show, is free promotion and a valued endorsement and that's always good for our sport.

Saturday Stakes Action at Oaklawn

2011-03-19T09:24:00.000-04:00

Is The Factor, The Fastest? So often, speed wins races. This is one of those rare moments when I will just accept the fact. The Factor is, the speed of the speed, and whether or not he needs oxygen at the wire won’t matter, because there is simply nothing in this race that can stay with him. He knows only one way of running and he will be on the front end. He can run away and hide from this field, and though a few will come running in the end, I think The Factor could be long gone. I do not see him as a Derby horse. But I think the Rebel is within his reach. I can hear Bob Baffert telling Marin Garcia “Ride ‘em like you stole ‘em.”

Let’s put it this way, the others have to catch him, to win. The 4 horses that should come running in here and could pick up the pieces would be the 1-2-3 horses from the Southwest. All three of these horses seem to have some talent and are going in the right direction. The other horse in here that is intriguing is Alternation. He is improving, and coming in with a few zippy works. Is he good enough to take the next step forward?

The Azeri is, by far, the clash of the divas. Is Blind Luck tailing off and in need of a rest? I’m not going to second guess a sharp trainer, but has this great, little mare been given a break since she started her 2 year old career? Amazing that she just keeps on going.

Havre de Grace has been freshened and has had a trainer switch from Tony Dutrow to Larry Jones. In my mind, Mr. Jones is becoming one of those trainers who excels with any kind of horse, but especially with fillies. This is the first start of the year for Havre de Grace, but she has run well fresh before. She beat Blind Luck last year, by a neck, in receipt of 10 pounds; today they are running at equal weights (115).

I love both these fillies and would be happy to see either one of them win. They lay over the rest of the field. But I think that Havre de Grace has the advantage. She is fresh; she has a home court advantage, and does not have to ship. Larry Jones gets them ready to win. His horses are not in need of a race or two. The jock switch to Ramon Dominguez won’t hurt either.

Other March Madness

2011-03-16T13:53:00.000-04:00

What’s going on here? I just read about the Scat Daddy colt that brought $400,000 yesterday at OBS. I hope it’s just the bad angle of the picture and that colt is NOT as back at the knees as the picture suggests. Bought by the Japanese, let’s just say, I’m glad I’m not sending a horse to Japan at the moment.

And In the same article, (read at the Blood Horse) famous -trainer told famous -owner to buy a Street Sense colt, AFTER he chipped an ankle in his :10 workout.

Did I read that right?

Sweet Ducky has been sold to the Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov, who is also friend of Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi. Though the first report I saw said “anonymous” buyer, that kind of news doesn’t stay secret very long.

Really? Is this really true? C’mon, there must be some mistake….

In all seriousness, I heard from a friend in Tokyo who bought several stallion prospects from my dad back in the day, and he assured us that his immediate family is safe. But as great as that was to hear, the rest of his e-mail was chilling. His wife’s sister and her family lived in the area where the tsunami hit, and their village was washed away. They are unaccounted for. Though I don’t know these people, it just makes this catastrophe much more real to me. He went on to say that because of the “nuclear disaster” (his words), many foreigners are leaving. There are quakes every 10 to 15 minutes, and they are faced with power and water shortages, no gas, no bread, no milk, no bottled water and serious transportation problems.

Not quite the March Madness that we are used to.

Over at the Paulick Report, they have a fundraiser with contributions going to the American Red Cross for Japan Relief. You can also sign up for the PR Helping Japan NCAA Bracket Challenge, but you have to do it before tomorrow at noon.

And will it be the Morehead Eagles or the Louisville Cardinals in the first round?

More From Mo

2011-03-14T13:46:00.000-04:00

The Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream did nothing to further along Uncle Mo’s march to the Derby. It was a glorified workout, going a one turn mile, with a nice gallop out. And? Nothing new was learned, except for some reason, he seems to be going along the path of least resistance.

The son of Indian Charlie, who may or may not have distance limitations, looks sound and happy. Is this enough to translate into a win at Churchill in a twenty horse field, with lots of bumping and traffic troubles? Will there be enough conditioning in him, mentally and physically, to go the grueling mile and a quarter that most young 3 year olds want no part of? Will the Arch-Kris S-Roberto blood on his dam‘s side, kick in, make the difference?

Whether he stays in Florida for the Florida Derby or goes to New York for the Wood, I think Uncle Mo needs to get some dirt in his face, and he needs to overcome some adversity before we crown him the King of the Three Year old colts. I want to see what he does in a fight.

I want to see more from Mo.

Weekend Rewind

2011-03-07T10:43:00.000-05:00

I have watched the replay of the Big’ Cap several times and two things comes to mind. The first, and most important thing is, Thank God! everyone stayed on their feet. But the other thing is how unfortunate, and maybe unfair, it was for Setsuko and his connections. This horse was running the race of his career, one that many of us thought he had in him. He was minding his own business, playing nice, and got parlayed not once, but twice. Momentarily getting the wind knocked out of him, and getting banged up, (hopefully, not seriously) he gutted it out to lose by inches. Had none of the interference happened (that is, Twirling Candy knocking Game On Dude sideways while Chantal was hitting left-handed) Setsuko would have not been interfered with and would, without question, had a clear shot at victory.
So IMO, everything that happened was between TC and GOD, and Setsuko was the one that suffered the most, in that it probably cost him a Grade I win. And so, where was the fairness there? An in addition, if Steward Scott Chaney could say it was a 50-50- argument, then why does it fall one way and not the other?

Is Uncle Mo teaching Stay Thirsty in the mornings, or is it the other way around?? Nice win by the “workmate” and I have always thought highly of him. Perhaps what he beat was questionable, but he galloped out strong and, all in all, I think he got what he needed at this stage of the game. And that’s the pedigree that wants the classic distance.

Speaking of Stay Thirsty’s sire Bernadini, could he be any hotter?

Not only did he have a maiden breaker in the Phipps homebred, Break up the Game, out of the Mr. Prospector mare Pennant Champion at Gulfstream on Saturday, but he had a first time starter at Santa Anita that had a very flashy debut. Wilburn, out of Moonlight Sonata, by Carson City, won impressively and should certainly go on to bigger and better.

And big THANK YOU to Dixie’s Sandals, Deanaallen’skitten, Rockette Escapade and Waquoit’s Dance for all doing their jobs nicely and giving me the super in the last race at Gulfstream on Saturday. Love those dime supers!

Wilcox Inn...Strictly Turf ?

2011-02-28T18:23:00.000-05:00

This Saturday marks the return to the races for the 3 year old colt, Wilcox Inn, by Harlan's Holiday. Last seen in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf, he finished up a sneaky-good, rail-skimming third to Pluck and Soldat. His total lifetime earnings after that race, placed him 18th on the Derby earnings list.

After breaking his maiden first time out at Arlington, the colt was third to JP's Gusto and Santiva in the Breeder's Futurity at Keeneland. He has kept good company in his short campaign.

The race at Fair Grounds is the Grindstone, going 7 &1/2 on the turf.

Harlan's Holiday (who stands at WinStar) was a multiple Grade 1 winner of 6+ million, all on dirt. But Wilcox Inn's bottom line ( DeAar, by Gone West ) is loaded with grass horses. De Arr is out of Alletta Marie ( Diesis), who the dam of SW's Cetawayo and Bowman Mill.

Is dirt in the cards for this colt? Should he enter the starting gate on Saturday, as planned, then he would be 9 weeks out to Derby Day. Is that enough time to get a race on dirt, around two turns, for him?
Inquiring minds want to know.

His trainer Mike Stidham can certainly get a horse ready off a layoff. And Rosie Napravnick is named to ride on Saturday.
It would be a great year for her to have a Derby mount.
Just sayin'...

Fandicapping

2011-02-27T08:58:00.000-05:00

Kudos to my team members Dave and Annie for keeping us alive in the Pace Advantage Interboard Handicapping League. Starting in January and running through Derby Day, there are 50 teams of three handicappers, playing 8 “events” each Saturday. Races are usually Stakes, and they are from all around the country. Though scoring for yesterday is still “unofficial”, we may have slipped a tad from last week, but it looks like we are in pretty good shape.We are doing extremely well for first time starters. The big one that we missed was the 40 to one shot in the Turf Paradise Derby…Beer Meister, who trailed early and finished up like he was shot out of cannon.

Heads up to anyone who is playing in the NHC this year. Next Saturday is the Free Online Handicapping Challenge for 4 spots to the finals.

I think I am sold on Soldat. He had to prove to me that he wasn’t just a turf/mud horse, and yesterday’s performance did just that. He is just one of those horses that will run on anything. I liked that he relaxed on the lead despite early pressure and won rather easily. That 18 to 1 week- one- future wager is looking better and better.

Did I mention that in the last 40 years, 12 Derby winners had names beginning with the letter “S”?

R. Heat Lightning is back, as I suspected she would be, with a very professional performance yesterday. Dancinginherdreams was getting out a bit at the top of the stretch and never finished up the way I expected her to. Two turns will be the answer for her, I think.

I had the pleasure of analyzing the Grade 3 Canadian Turf today at ThoroFan’s Handicapping Corner, as the guest handicapper from Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance. It’s a class drop for Society’s Chairman after chasing Gio Ponti and Goldikova last year, a perfect race set-up for Twilight Meteor, and a first-race-back for Yankee Fourtune after a 5 win streak last year.

Have fun with your "fandicapping" today. Hope you bet little and win big!

Oaks-Bound Fillies in the Davona Dale

2011-02-26T09:12:00.000-05:00

Who will be victorious today in the prestigious Davona Dale, at a mile, on Fountain of Youth day? There are several very nice fillies in here that I’m sure are on their way to the Oaks.
Dancinginherdreams is already a graded stakes winner at a mile. Her first race back this year at 7/8’s was a nice tightener and she was clearly gaining on the winner at the wire. She is by Tapit, leading juvenile sire of SW’s, Stakes horses and winners in 2010. Tapit is also the sire of Zazu; another Oaks bound filly and the talented colt Rattlesnake Bridge.

Trained by John Ward, Dancinginherdreams looks definitely ready to take that next step forward. But this is not her prime target, so they will want to leave a little something in the tank.

R Heat Lightning is another very good filly with back class. A Grade 1 winner at Saratoga, she finished last year with 2 seconds and one of those was in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. She had become quite headstrong in her two route races last year, and coming back this year in the Forward Gal she ran an uncharacteristically flat race. Did they try different tactics to try to get her to relax? Is she just not the horse she was last year? Or do we just put a line through that effort and hope to see theTrippi filly rebound to her former self? Lots of questions here.

Everybody’s talking about Pomeroy’s Pistol. She is a very nice filly coming into this race off a win in the Forward Gal, when she just lasted over Dancinginherdreams. While I am not sure she wants to go much farther than 7/8’s, could the Point Given on her dam’s side kick in when she needs it today? She does have Ramon (replacing the injured Paco Lopez)

Another horse that you need to take a look at is Mending Hearts. Her maiden win going a mile from the 10 hole, in a 12 horse field was a nice effort. She is by Street Cry out of a Storm Cat mare and we know what those Street Cry fillies can turn into.

Nothing wrong with Roxy Gap if you can forgive that last race on the Gulfstream dirt, when bumped and wide. She’s a winner in two surfaces, going short and long and has the rejuvenated Alex Solis in the saddle.

And don’t leave out the Eddie Kenneally trained ,Oh Carole. You can moan and groan about the Unbridled Songs’ and how fragile you think they are. But most all of them can run. She has a win over the track, and the filly she beat, ( Funny Sunny) came back yesterday to romp by 10.

I think the Tapit filly is coming into this race the right way. I like her post, I like her bullet at Palm Meadows and of course I like to root for her connections. She should also get better as the distances get longer.

Good Luck in all your wagers today! And let’s see which of these fillies continues dancing their way to the Oaks.

Rosie Outlook

2011-02-22T09:44:00.000-05:00

Cozi Rosie was up in time in yesterday’s Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap at a mile on the lawn at Santa Anita. After a nine month layoff, John Sadler had this filly tuned to perfection and she turned in a powerful run from the top of the stretch to the wire. Mike Smith saved ground into the first turn, but gave the filly running room and fanned her wide around the field of 9, where she was able to stretch her legs. Owned and bred by Jerry and Anne Moss, this filly is showing all the promise she hinted at last year, and more. She has an enormous stride, (watch it here) and should go on to bigger and better on the turf.

Cozi Rosie is by Pleasantly Perfect out of Felidia (IRE), by Golden Fleece. She is part of the first crop to race by Pleasantly Perfect, Breeder’s Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup winner. He is also the sire of Shared Account, winner of this year’s Breeder’s Cup F & M Turf. For a young sire, it appears that he is throwing some very nice turf females. He looks like a bargain at $7500 and stands at Lane’s End.

Celebrating President's Day

2011-02-21T11:19:00.000-05:00

Interestingly, many of our US Presidents had horses. But Andrew Jackson had race horses. From all indications he was a wild young man who liked to dual, fight and gamble. My guess is, there might have been some "whiskey" mixed into all that too, just sayin'... anyway, not someone you want to be with at the races if his horse lost. He did become a lawyer, a General and our 7th president but he became a hero with his success in the battle of New Orleans.

For a short time he even worked at making saddles. Back in the day, the Tennessee race horse was the finest in the country. His best horse was Truxton (or Thruxton) and he also had Indian Queen, Pacolet, Lady Nashville, Buck, Bolivia and Little Sorrel . He was also part owner of Tennessee’s most important racetrack, Clover Bottom.

Found a little book called “Horses of the Presidents”, written by Leah Taylor. Could be an interesting read.

Ok, the history lesson is over, who do you like in the Southwest today?

JP’s Gusto gets in with 117 pounds, even though he is a multiple Graded Stakes winner, including the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and has made a half a million dollars. All because he has not yet raced in 2011. Interesting. But he comes in with a trainer switch, and is he better on synthetics?

While he is the most seasoned and the class of the field, I am going to look elsewhere.

I like the Larry Jones-trained Yankee Passion, a homebred owned by the former Governor of Kentucky, and a son of Yankee Gentleman out of a Pleasant Colony mare. I think he will enjoy the two turns and he could get even better as the distances get longer with that stamina influence on the dam’s side.

The other horse I like in here is Elite Alex. After watching the replay of his last start, going a mile,well to say he broke in a tangle was putting it mildly. That he stayed on his feet was amazing, and the way he circled the field to just come up a head short was pretty impressive. He returned with a bullet and then a nice stamina building 7/8s a week ago.

So like most horseracing fans on a Monday holiday, I will wager some “presidents” in the hopes of getting lucky to avoid a dual later on in the day.

Questions at Fair Grounds

2011-02-19T09:37:00.000-05:00

The Grade 2 Risen Star today at the Fair Grounds looks to be where several 3 year old colts will need to step forward and show that they are making headway in learning the racing game.Questions will be asked. Will they have the answers?

In the case of Machen, by Distorted Humor, out of the very fast Ready’s Gal, he will need to show a little less enthusiasm early on, and a little more rateability. The last thing I want to see is him going into that first turn with his mouth wide open; perhaps we may see a change of equipment (figure eight) on him today? The good thing is, Jamie Theriot knows this horse, and I am sure Neil Howard knows best how to address this problem. His turn of foot in his last effort, despite the issues early on, was impressive and if he grows up even a little, he will be tough.

Justin Philip is another nice colt who has shown talent at times, but has been hampered by his awkwardness at the gate in several of his starts. After breaking his maiden in the slop in January , he wore blinkers in his next start. Blinkers, after a win without them, is a curious move and has to be OK’d by the stewards. That experiment did not pan out. Today we are back to “blinkers off”. Has he learned his lessons? We will see. His fancy win in the slop, could have been the result of being out of a Cryptoclearance mare, which would showcase his affinity for the goo. Though it lends some much needed stamina to his pedigree, is he just a mud horse?

Has Eddie Kenneally found the key to Santiva? The colt has made steady progress through the hands of McPeek, Pletcher and now Kenneally, with his last win ( his maiden score) in the Grade2 Ky. JC at Churchill in November. A best out number, out of 4 starts which included grass, and synthetic, he has kept good company in all his races. He had a 6 week break and was put right back to work at Palm Meadows and shows 2 back- to-back minute workouts. He could be all grown up and ready to roll.

Does Rogue Romance like the dirt as much as he likes the turf? His Breeder’s Cup effort was still good, 13 lengths behind Uncle Mo, but he was coming off 2 grass wins. Horses that excel on both turf and dirt are few and far between. Though Ken Mc Peek seems to be very good at switching surfaces with his horses.

Is Mucho Macho Man coming back too quick? And who will be riding him?( Take a moment and say a prayer for Eibar Coa)

For several of these boys, this race could be a turning point. Now is time to grow up and continue along the Derby trail.

In the Rachel Alexander, though Kathmanblu appears to tower over this field and I’m not saying she’s vulnerable ( again the McPeek turf to dirt move), but there’s a filly in here who will be overlooked and that filly is Tapit Dancer. First she is by TAPIT, need I say more? And though she is coming off her maiden win she has kept good company. In addition, she has improved in each and every race. An ambitious move by Steve Asmussen , why not a NW 1? James Graham had a riding triple last night and is on top of his game. A huge question here for this Tapit filly,and I look forward to seeing how she stacks up.

The Suffolk Saga

2011-02-16T21:26:00.000-05:00

It’s saddens me to write about what is currently happening at Suffolk Downs. I have had many good memories of races won there, good friends and fun times.

But it could all be coming to an end. The dispute between the track and horsemen seems to be at a standstill, as the track, unreasonably, expects horsemen to take a decrease in race dates, a decrease in already radically-cut purses and an unfair distribution of simulcast revenue. As a result of this, the NEHBPA has withdrawn it’s consent to allow the NYRA simulcast signal coming into the track. Other states have followed suit in solidarity.

I have to say I am truly amazed that the horsemen have stuck it out this long.

Kudos to the NEHBPA for digging in and standing their ground. And to the other HBPAs around the country that stand with them. Because horsemen and horsewomen deserve better than what they have been getting.

For many years it’s always been a question not only IF there would be a meet each year, but just what concessions horsemen would have to make to insure it. There was a short time when the “new” owner seemed to be “horseman-friendly”, but I can see now where the intent may not have been sincere. Pouring money into the track seemed to be more about preserving and protecting the investment, with an eye on future slot revenues, and not about improving the track. If it had been about what was good for racing, for example, they would have addressed both the turf and dirt track surfaces, which have been in dire need of revamping for years.

I am STUNNED at the attitude of management this week, especially with the comments coming from the C.O.O. Now I don’t know him and my guess is, he would rather keep his job, than not have one. I get that. And maybe he’s just a mouthpiece too. But he talks about the lack of respect that horsemen have for the racing fan. Huh? Sorry, but I didn’t think that owners, trainers, vets, exercise riders, jocks, grooms and hotwalkers had that responsibility. Isn’t it the responsibility of the business owner to keep his customers happy? And with that in mind, didn’t management know that the simulcast signal would be pulled if they weren’t serious and sensitive to the horsemen’s interests and concerns? Of course the fans are unhappy, but that’s managements’ problem to resolve. Where’s the accountability here? The C.O.O. also talks about the economic hardship and emotional distress put on the employees at the track. Now I’m not happy about anybody losing their jobs, especially some of the nice people and great talent at the track. But come on sir, what about the economic hardship your horsemen have been enduring over the years? Maybe you should have taken a walk around the backside last summer to see some economic hardship and emotional harm. Or maybe not. Because walking around the backside last summer after reducing purses approximately 34% AFTER the meet started may not have been the thing to do either, now that I think of it.

Trouble is, Suffolk Downs doesn’t want to be accountable for anything. They say they want a race meet but they are not ACTING like they want one. Because if they did, they would be trying to negotiate instead of criticizing the horsemen, both here and around the country, whining about losing money, and placing blame for all of this on everyone but themselves.

Racing could come to a halt at Suffolk Downs this year. And that would mean no live thoroughbred racing in all of New England. I hope it doesn’t happen. But if it does, it won’t be because of the horsemen. They can’t possibly continue under these circumstances. They are doing what they need to do.

If you are interested in reading the correspondence in detail from the NEHBPA, check their website, here.

Off The Board and Off The List?

2011-02-12T20:43:00.000-05:00

It was Off The Board for 2 “Derby Contenders” today. Tapizar, rank for a good half mile, spit out the bit when it counted most and gave it up in late stretch in the Bob Lewis. He finished 5th and beat two horses. Not what you want to see from this talented colt. The winner however, Anthony’s Cross was very game to hold off Riveting Reason to win by a nose. This PA bred, with first time blinkers, is by Indian Charlie out of an Unbridled mare and earned $150,000 for the win.

A little later on, Comma to the Top finished 4th in a field of 6 in the El Camino at Golden Gate. While racing close to the pace, early on , he bore out both in the first quarter mile and late in the stretch. Will we find that he has some issues brewing?

The winner, Silver Medallion, was ridden by Russell Baze and was the first starter ever at Golden Gate for Steve Asmussen. He earn $120,000 for the win here.

Boys at Toscanova is officially off the Derby trail and has been sent to the farm. No surprise here as he did not make the Holy Bull, so you had to think something was “up”.

Horses jump on the Derby lists; horses fall off the Derby lists. It’s just the way it is this time of year.

Saturday Stakes Action and then some....

2011-02-12T11:17:00.000-05:00

Let me know how St. Trinians runs today, as I can’t watch that mare run. It’s way to scary. Talk about a rough way of going! Though she has a heart as big as the grandstand as was shown in her gallant effort against Zenyatta in the Vanity last year, I for one thought we would never see her back in the entries. According to her trainer, she took weeks to recuperate from that amazing effort. Let’s see that was in June, and now its February. You know what happens when mares lay their bodies down…. Few come back with the same enthusiasm… And what about those legs flying in every different direction? lots of luck to her but I won’t be watching…

Just let me know the results.

The Bob Lewis looks like an easy spot for the very talented Tapizar.

How about a quick 50 cent Pick Four for the 3 Stakes and the last race at Tampa?

Florida Oaks
4. Fancy Point – class of the field/ beat Kathmanblu last year
5. Her Smile - will she turf AND stretch out?
8. Ipswich Bay – nice maiden win on turf, could improve
11. Niji’s Grande Girl – consistant sort/ never off the board at 5 different tracks

Sam Davis
10. Brethren – half to Derby winner and Derby bound
3. Washington’s Rules- flashy maiden win, back with a bullet, longshot look

Endeavor

1.Denomination – strong win at Tampa last out, improving
4.You Go West Girl- older classy mare, loves Tampa

12th race 16 claiming

7. Gold Pageantry - with the scratch of Dream With Us , I will go with my second choice. He needed his last and this a better spot than the race at Gulfstream where he was crossed entered for 25 down to 20.

Been waiting for Rockin Heat to appear this year and he is in on Sunday in the third; a salty “other than “ allowance event going a mile on the main track at Gulfstream. This son of Rock Hard Ten showed a lot of talent last year up north on the turf and the Woodbine synthetic. Going to dirt for the first time, and drawn nicely to the outside.

Super Debut

2011-02-06T13:54:00.000-05:00

The MSW 8th race at Gulfstream yesterday at 7 panels, had a “buzz” horse going in, and perhaps a Derby contender when all was said and done, at the finish. It was the debut of Cal Nation, by Distorted Humor out of She’s A Winner. The colt, under John Velasquez, broke very sharply from the 12 hole and went straight to the front. The half brother to Bluegrass Cat rated kindly behind the early front runner, until he was asked to change gears and when he did, it was quite the move. He won with the greatest of ease in the sharp time of 1.22 and change. It was very professional start with lots of things to like from this good looking colt.
You can watch the replay here.

Owned and bred by Winstar Farm, Cal Nation is nowhere near as accomplished as stable mate Brethren, but it will be interesting to see where this colt goes next. As far as Brethren, he worked this morning at Payson and went 5/8ths in 1:01. He is nominated to the Sam Davis at Tampa this Saturday, February 12. We could be looking at another big year for WinStar. If you are interested in the stable roster for WinStar, complete with up-to-date workouts, check out their website.

Tea Party

2011-02-05T10:20:00.000-05:00

It’s a good card at Gulfstream Park today, with the Donn H. taking most of the buzz. There are six turf races including the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Handicap. The third race is an interesting non winners of 2, and I am most curious about Casper’s Touch in there. Could he jump on the Derby trail? The 6th race turf event could be a Kitten’s Joy exacta.

Today’s 7th race at Gulfstream is the Grade 3 Suwannee River Stakes for fillies and mares going 1&1/8 miles on the turf. This race is named for the river running from Georgia through Florida that empties into the Gulf of Mexico. So a little geography lesson along with a little handicapping. Who says we aren’t well rounded? Past winners of the Suwannee River are Old Hat, Sulemeif , Julie La Rousse, Marshuas River, Seebe, Pico Teneriffe and, Naissance Royal, to name a few.

There is a nice field of 10 this year, with an MTO standing by. But the weather looks good enough at the time of this writing for the race to go on a firm grass course. There’s no real short priced morning line favorite here, so at first glance it looks like a wide open affair.

The filly I like in here is It’s Tea Time. Yes, she is coming off a layoff since the Breeder’s Cup, where she was fourth to Unbridled Belle, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. ( hey, she beat Life at Ten (!) ). She returned to the worktab six weeks later, and has worked steadily for her return, with several very sharp works on the lawn. She had no trouble coming back last year off a similar freshening and won two in a row at Saratoga, and now she is dropping in class. She has won at the distance, and she has won over the Gulfstream turf. She is a neck away from being a winner on 3 surfaces, not bad for 9 lifetime starts. This shows that this filly tries on whatever you put her on. The Dynaformers get better with age, so as a four year old, she still has some improving to do. She has J. Lep in the irons and he knows her well. The trip will be key, as is always the case on the turf. Rusty Arnold needs a winner and today is the day. It’s Tea Time is my best bet of the day.

Make Room For Machen

2011-01-30T16:58:00.000-05:00

If your Derby list doesn’t include Machen, maybe it should. The chestnut colt by Distorted Humor out of Grade 1 winner Ready’s Gal, romped at Fair Grounds today, in his second start, and first attempt at two turns. After breaking slowly, and wanting to go, he pulled Jaime Theriot up into the pocket behind the speed. He was checked off heels, pulling and tugging with his mouth wide open. Covered up the rest of the way, he seemed to finally settle and inside the sixteenth pole, shot through the smallest of seams to draw off and win with lots left. Still a bit green, but lots of talent here.Trained by the very patient Neil Howard who is having a phenomenal Fair Grounds meet (32%), he is owned by his breeder, Courtlandt Farm.

This is the first foal of multiple Graded Stakes winner Ready’s Gal , winner of over $600,000. She has an ’09 filly by A.P. Indy and an ’10 colt by the same.

What's Not to Like?

2011-01-29T10:01:00.000-05:00

First Dude is back after a short freshening, in the Grade 1 Sunshine Millions Classic at a mile & 1/8 at Gulfstream Park today. While still eligible for NW 2, the big strapping colt is overdue for his second win. This is the spot. As a newly turned 4 year old, and eligible for this race because he is a Florida bred, he is returning to the sight of his only win. In addition he will be shedding his blinkers and adding Kent D. It would be nice to see him settle behind the expected early speed of Tackleberry and Birdrun, galloping along at his trademark cruising tempo and then, kick in, in the lane. The only thing not to like will be his price.

As a bit of a crazy longshot for second money is Black Hills. I know nothing about his connections. And I hope Black Hills can’t read the form, because the Dude could scare him away. But I do know one thing. This horse appears as honest as they come and never runs a bad one. He deserves a shot at some big money, and there’s no reason why he can’t get a piece of this.

Going to play around with a few horses in the 3rd at Gulfstream, a maiden event , on turf, going the tough distance of 7& ½ furlongs. I like Ghost Hill in here, a colt by Stormy Atlantic, who should like the surface switch. Also gets a rider switch and a class drop. This trainer seems to be good at getting horses ready off a layoff, so this horse should fire fresh. Two others in here to take a look at are Iwannaiwannaiwanna, getting some class relief. And Extensive, who’s recent effort first time turf at Tampa, was a good one. Both have to deal with outside posts, however.

In the feature at Fair Grounds, for fillies and mares going 1&1/16 on the turf, I like Forest Uproar. She has only been off the board once in her life, when something surely went wrong in the Valley View at Keeneland. She needed a year off after that, but is now two for two on the lawn. And one of those was at Fair Grounds, coming out of the 11 hole. She looks very tough in here, though she could get pounded at the windows.

Good Luck if you are making an investment today!

Who's Dancing Now?

2011-01-26T18:47:00.000-05:00

Word has it that Bernadini has been doing the happy dance all day, since word broke that Horse of the Year, Zenyatta, will be visiting him this breeding season. The son of the great AP Indy, out of SW Cara Rafaela did not seem to be on any lists of prospects that I came across, but appears to be the perfect choice.

The Eclipse Champion 3 year old of 2006 and winner of the Preakness, Jim Dandy, Travers and JC Gold Cup, Bernadini has the important mix of speed and stamina. Always on, or near the lead he had no trouble carrying his speed the classic distance.

Though a young sire, he has gotten off to a very good start with 2 Grade 1 winners ( AZ Warrior and Biondetti) in his first crop from 2010. Those horses are all newly turn 3 year olds, including To Honor and Serve, who is on the Derby trail.

Bernadini is a very handsome, plain bay who stands 16.1 &1/2. Thus bigger than his sire and probably one of the defining reasons for the choice. He has good balance with a nice walk, and a kind eye. A hypothetical nick on True Nicks with Bernadini and Zenyatta gets an A++, based on the mating of sons of AP Indy and sons of Machiavellian ( Sire of Street Cry). There are already 2 Grade One winners based on this similar”nick", Flashing ( Gr 1 Test and Gazelle) and Jilbab ( CC American Oaks.) and this is out of only 10 starters. For an enhanced version of this, click here.

Bernadini has the speed and stamina, good size, great genes and a successful ( though new) stud career. Everything he needs to compliment the great Zenyatta. Now all that’s needed, as always, is a little luck from the Racing (or would that be the Breeding ?) Gods.

Let's Thank the Colonel

2011-01-21T17:18:00.000-05:00

The Colonel E.R Bradley at Fair Grounds tomorrow is named in honor of the owner/ breeder/ businessman and philanthropist who owned the track from 1926 to 1934. During that time he was responsible for spending a great deal of money in improving and renovating the Louisiana track. During his early life, be it fact or fiction, it is written that he was a gold miner, a steel mill worker and a cowboy ( he knew Billy the Kid). When he testified before the US Senate he described himself as a “speculator, raiser of race horses and a gambler”. Political pundits would have a ball with that one now!

Edward Riley Bradley, (1859-1946) received the title of ”Colonel” after moving to Kentucky and becoming a breeder of great racehorses. He bought Ash Grove Stock Farm in Lexington, added to it, and later renamed it Idle Hour Stock Farm. Part of that property is now Darby Dan Farm.

He owned 4 Kentucky Derby winners including Behave Yourself, Bubbling Over, Burgoo King and Broker’s Tip. And he was famous for naming all his horses staring with the letter “B.”

One of his greatest breeding accomplishments was importing the great French mare La Troienne to this country. For this we should be very grateful, as she was one of the most influential broodmares of the 20th Century. Though she never won a race, she was the granddam of the great filly Busher who was named Horse of the year in 1945. In addition she produced the Hall of Famer, Bimelech. She was also the granddam of Busanda, who was the dam of the great Buckpasser. When you see the name La Troienne in a pedigree you know there is quality there. When the Colonel died, his breeding stock was sold to a syndicate comprised of Greentree Stable, King Ranch and Ogden Phipps.

The Col. E.R Bradley is a Grade 3, for 4 and up, at a mile and 1/16 on the Fair Grounds turf. I like both the newly turned 4 year olds in this spot. Both Joinem and Red Strike seem to be both improving types. You can throw out Red Strike’s last when he stumbled. Both seem to handle the turf if it is less than fast, which will probably be the case on Saturday. Gran Estreno always hits the board and loves to win. The rider switch to Rosie might make a difference here. And although he is 8 years old, he is none the worse for wear, firing a bullet best out of 66, 4 days ago.

Reflections on Horse of The Year

2011-01-18T18:17:00.000-05:00

Witnessing "greatness" can make your heart beat faster, it can take your breath away. It can make you cheer, it can make you weep. It can find you speechless, it can cause you to ramble. But there is no mistaking it.When you see it, or feel it, it can't be denied.

You can dissect and analyze forms, numbers, figs,sheets, replays, workouts, comments, ratings, class and professional opinions; you can look in your head, you can look in your heart. But in the end, this year was all about Zenyatta. It was about her achievements on the track, the records she crushed and on top of all that, it was about the positive light that she brought to our sport. Not only was she the deserving Horse of the Year, she WAS Horse racing for the last three years.

To so many, it was easy to see just how great she was.

Claiborne Farm is one of the most famous breeding farms in the world, and their legacy and dominance is huge. From Bold Ruler to Mr. Prospector, from Round Table to Danzig, from Secretariat to Easy Goer, the best of the best have been born and bred there.Though it was a year of celebration for the mighty farm, for Blame it was the wrong year to be a star. Because no star shone more brightly than Zenyatta's. Even in her lone defeat by inches, she elevated the sport of horse racing, reaching new fans and re-energizing old ones. She was the "gift" that kept on giving, and this year the voters finally got it right.

Congratulations to Zenyatta, the Horse of the Year and to her owners Anne and Jerry Moss, to John and Dottie, to Mike and Steve, to Mario and Carmen and all the other members of her family.
Thank you all for sharing her with us. It's been an incredible ride.

Speed Dating For Zenyatta

2011-01-14T19:30:00.000-05:00

While the world anxiously awaits the outcome of HOTY and whether Zenyatta will get her much deserved award on Monday night, I’m just as anxious to find out who Zenyatta will ultimately date when breeding season begins. Though Mike Smith contends that "no horse is worthy", some Kentucky stallion will get very lucky. Talk about "classing up".

Going with the age old axiom… breed the best to the best and hope for the best… who IS the best for Zenyatta?

Most will agree that the prospective suitor needs to have brilliant speed. The Queen has all the staying power that any of her offspring will ever need, but an infusion of some zip might make for the ultimate mix of speed and stamina for success in those Grade 1's that everyone wants to win.

When you look at the top 20 proven stallions from 2010 standing in Kentucky, ( and believe it or not A.P. Indy is not among them; he is 26th), the ones that stand out as good "nicks" are Giant’s Causeway, Distorted Humor, Malibu Moon, Medaglia D’Oro, Mineshaft and Indian Charlie. These are the ones that seem to cross well, with "A" or better ratings according to the various hypothetical mating systems. Those ratings are based on the racing success of the combination of Zenyatta’s bloodlines with each stallions’ bloodlines. It is a very good tool to use when considering stallions. There are some awfully good stallions whose two year olds will be running this year that also nick well (like Hard Spun) but unfortunately they are unproven, so it’s not the way to go with a mare of her stature.

Another equally important factor to be considered is conformation. Balance is key in an equine athlete, and you try to match up both the mare and the stallion with this in mind. Any slight conformational faults should be taken into consideration and minimized with the proper mate selection.

As race mares go, Zenyatta is a very big mare. And it worked in her favor on the race track. But bigger is not always better, and in many cases, in race horses it’s a negative. Sometimes the bigger they are, the harder it is too keep them sound. Again, it’s all about balance. My guess is in Zenyaytta’s case, is that size is the biggest consideration next to compatible bloodlines. Breeding to a very big stallion would probably not be the best of ideas. You certainly don’t want to put any more size into the resulting foal. And going in the other direction ( too small ) is not ideal either.

What would be perfect for Zenyatta is a well-balanced horse around 16.2 hands, that was brilliant at a mile and could carry that speed a little farther on a good day in top notch company. The Big Mare will take care of the rest.

The art of breeding race horses is every bit of a gamble, if not more, than racing them. Lots of effort goes into making breeding decisions. I'm sure the chosen suitor has been well vetted. We look forward to the announcement !

Who will it be?

And The Winner Is....

2011-01-11T18:47:00.000-05:00

In less than a week from now, we will know who will go into the record books with their Eclipse Awards and more importantly, who will be the Horse of the Year for 2010. We already know how many votes were cast. According to the NTRA, 251 ballots were mailed out, and 238 responded. This was "an unprecedented 94.8% rate" of voter participation. Thirteen people did not vote this year. And, it's obvious, the number of non-participants in years' past, has been higher.

Really ????

Excuse me, but unless there is an extremely good reason for not sending your ballot back in ( and there may well be) please enlighten me as to why people would not take this honor more seriously. And...one has to wonder...will these people be allowed to vote next year too, if they have chosen not to participate this year?

I would hope that the voters for these awards are highly knowledgeable, extremely passionate and involved year-round in the business of horse racing.
And I would also expect that these same voters would be grabbing the bit and running to get their voices heard and their votes counted. Though we have heard from a number of voters from DRF, NTRA and various other members of the media, they are in the minority. I have seen 50 or so, public opinions.

What about the others?

Is it asking for too much for full participation and transparency? Shouldn't we know all the names and qualifications for every member of the voting groups? Shouldn't we know where they stand, and why? Shouldn't they be penalized if they don't exercise their voting privilege?

For those that have voted and declared their choices publicly, thank you for taking a stand and taking the heat. Because this year, HOTY has been a white-hot issue. And whichever way it shakes down.... will there be more debate Tuesday morning?

You can bet on it.

Contest Results - The Classic Speed and Fade

2011-01-05T09:04:00.000-05:00

Then first NHC Handicapping Contest was Sunday. I showed speed from the gate and was close up for the first five races with 4 wins which put me in a tie for 11th place. Exciting to see your name up there out of over 1500 players. But then, reality set in. The 9th at Fairgrounds was a MSW affair, with some nicely bred firsters. I decided to focus on them. I did my usual ; looked at workouts, breeding, and trainer stats with first time starters. Also waited to get a glimpse of them in the post parade. I knew that Neil Howard's horse had two sharp works going 5/8's and the dam was a runner. But this was her first foal. I then looked at the Asmussen trainee, out of a SW mare who was a 100% producer of 3 to race, all winners at two.
I decided to go with the Asmussen horse just because of his statistics with first time starters. Though I love Neil Howard as a trainer, I could not come up with one horse I could remember that he won with first time out .
Um... so statistics don't always tell the whole story, as Machen, by Distorted Humor out of SW Ready's Gal, won off like a good thing. Neil Howard could have a very nice horse on his hands.
And that was the beginning of my downward spiral to end up 219th in the first NHC Handicapping contest of 2011.
But, if weather permits, I will venture to Boston this weekend for a contest at Suffolk Downs. Practice makes perfect, right?
I was excited to get a workout alert that Well Armed is back on the worktab. He had an easy 3/8s in 38 at Hollywood Park on Tuesday.

And it was very sad to learn that Edward Evans has passed. I have always loved following his horses. I have a good feeling about Quality Road in the breeding shed and his success will contribute in keeping Mr. Evans' memory alive for a long time to come. I will never forget that wonderful picture ( by Douglas Lees) of him with a Jack Russell puppy in each jacket pocket. RIP Mr. Evans. There are lots of Jack Russells to enjoy up where you have gone.