Friday, May 4, 2012

Derby Day

I love the Kentucky Derby for all of its elegant traditions, historic importance, and unbridled excitement. I also love it for the wagering opportunities.

The best horse does not always win the Derby. But in the end, the roses go the best horse, on the day. So sometimes you have to use a little more imagination when wagering.
With a 20 horse field, all kinds of things can happen.
It’s a tough race to win, and a horse and rider need a tremendous amount of racing luck.
This is one of the most formidable fields in quite some time. You can study pedigree, analyze workouts and gallop outs, way of going ,confirmation, mental attitude and have all the inside info from the backside, but with three year olds in the spring that have never run the classic distance…well, no one knows what any of them will do when faced with that last extra furlong.
Still have more studying to do. But I will tell you who I am alive to in the Oaks -Derby Doubles wager.

Union Rags – loved him since last year. Not sure if daddy Dixie Union will get him there, but he has the class, the mind and the willingness to get the job done. Has been educated in previous starts, and for a big colt, he is pretty handy. Has tactical speed to stay within range. Had the best work of Derby week and is sitting on “ready”. Has the right connections, and J Lep will make no mistakes.

Dullahan - Respect Dale Romans. Talented colt can run on anything. Will need to work out a trip from off the pace. And that’s never easy to do.

Daddy Nose Best – Longshot play. May be a much better horse on dirt, has shown gameness. He likes to fight.

Alpha – this horse has always impressed me and I don’t think we’ve seen his best. Has had a small setback, and I hope his gate behavior has improved. But he has the class and I think he will get overlooked.

Gemologist – Undefeated, son of the great Tiznow, out of a Mr. Prospector mare. Stamina over speed. A lot to like. Connections will have him primed to do his best.

Creative Cause – Played my ticket early, before all the “buzz.” If he’s 100%, he will run his race. Never off the board, he’s a good feeling horse who loves his job.

Other pre-Derby races not to be missed:
Race 4- Souper Spectacular, Zenyatta’s baby brother
Race 7- Shackleford going 7 furlongs in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs
Race 9- Sassy Image going for back-to back wins in the Grade 1 Humana distaff
Race 10- Get Stormy going for back-to-back wins in the Grade 1 Turf Classic

Enjoy Derby Day, good luck if you are wagering, and safe trips to all our equine friends.

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