It’s the Third Saturday in May and that can only mean one thing. It’s Preakness Day and time to get your Preak-on!
Whatever that means.
You have a number of public handicappers saying it’s a two horse race. The Derby winner – I’ll Have Another – vs. the runner-up Bodemeister. Everyone else is running for third money.
Then you have the other half of the touts saying both horses have every right to bounce off their Derby efforts and it’s a good time to look for a new shooter who is moving in the right direction.
I think there’s another way to go. And his name is Creative Cause.
Consistent as they come, his 5th place finish in the Derby was still a good effort, despite some traffic problems and being 8 wide at the quarter pole. Yes he has been accumulating frequent flyer miles, but if he was not a good shipper, I doubt they would have put him through that. He was beaten a nasty nose by I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby and beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe, so he certainly fits with the “top two”. There should be plenty of pace for him to stalk and pounce.
The second jewel could be his today.
Across the pond, in moments, will be the 2012 debut of the “best horse in the world”. That would be Frankel. In the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury, we may see him stalk the speed of his half brother, Bullet Train, who it is said, will be used as a rabbit. A year older and stronger, Frankel’s race should be exciting to watch.
Frankel could indeed be today's Saturday Afternoon Horse.
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Friday, May 4, 2012
Derby Day
I love the Kentucky Derby for all of its elegant traditions, historic importance, and unbridled excitement. I also love it for the wagering opportunities. 
The best horse does not always win the Derby. But in the end, the roses go the best horse, on the day. So sometimes you have to use a little more imagination when wagering.
With a 20 horse field, all kinds of things can happen.
It’s a tough race to win, and a horse and rider need a tremendous amount of racing luck.
This is one of the most formidable fields in quite some time. You can study pedigree, analyze workouts and gallop outs, way of going ,confirmation, mental attitude and have all the inside info from the backside, but with three year olds in the spring that have never run the classic distance…well, no one knows what any of them will do when faced with that last extra furlong.
Still have more studying to do. But I will tell you who I am alive to in the Oaks -Derby Doubles wager.
Union Rags – loved him since last year. Not sure if daddy Dixie Union will get him there, but he has the class, the mind and the willingness to get the job done. Has been educated in previous starts, and for a big colt, he is pretty handy. Has tactical speed to stay within range. Had the best work of Derby week and is sitting on “ready”. Has the right connections, and J Lep will make no mistakes.
Dullahan - Respect Dale Romans. Talented colt can run on anything. Will need to work out a trip from off the pace. And that’s never easy to do.
Daddy Nose Best – Longshot play. May be a much better horse on dirt, has shown gameness. He likes to fight.
Alpha – this horse has always impressed me and I don’t think we’ve seen his best. Has had a small setback, and I hope his gate behavior has improved. But he has the class and I think he will get overlooked.
Gemologist – Undefeated, son of the great Tiznow, out of a Mr. Prospector mare. Stamina over speed. A lot to like. Connections will have him primed to do his best.
Creative Cause – Played my ticket early, before all the “buzz.” If he’s 100%, he will run his race. Never off the board, he’s a good feeling horse who loves his job.
Other pre-Derby races not to be missed:
Race 4- Souper Spectacular, Zenyatta’s baby brother
Race 7- Shackleford going 7 furlongs in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs
Race 9- Sassy Image going for back-to back wins in the Grade 1 Humana distaff
Race 10- Get Stormy going for back-to-back wins in the Grade 1 Turf Classic
Enjoy Derby Day, good luck if you are wagering, and safe trips to all our equine friends.
The best horse does not always win the Derby. But in the end, the roses go the best horse, on the day. So sometimes you have to use a little more imagination when wagering.
With a 20 horse field, all kinds of things can happen.
It’s a tough race to win, and a horse and rider need a tremendous amount of racing luck.
This is one of the most formidable fields in quite some time. You can study pedigree, analyze workouts and gallop outs, way of going ,confirmation, mental attitude and have all the inside info from the backside, but with three year olds in the spring that have never run the classic distance…well, no one knows what any of them will do when faced with that last extra furlong.
Still have more studying to do. But I will tell you who I am alive to in the Oaks -Derby Doubles wager.
Union Rags – loved him since last year. Not sure if daddy Dixie Union will get him there, but he has the class, the mind and the willingness to get the job done. Has been educated in previous starts, and for a big colt, he is pretty handy. Has tactical speed to stay within range. Had the best work of Derby week and is sitting on “ready”. Has the right connections, and J Lep will make no mistakes.
Dullahan - Respect Dale Romans. Talented colt can run on anything. Will need to work out a trip from off the pace. And that’s never easy to do.
Daddy Nose Best – Longshot play. May be a much better horse on dirt, has shown gameness. He likes to fight.
Alpha – this horse has always impressed me and I don’t think we’ve seen his best. Has had a small setback, and I hope his gate behavior has improved. But he has the class and I think he will get overlooked.
Gemologist – Undefeated, son of the great Tiznow, out of a Mr. Prospector mare. Stamina over speed. A lot to like. Connections will have him primed to do his best.
Creative Cause – Played my ticket early, before all the “buzz.” If he’s 100%, he will run his race. Never off the board, he’s a good feeling horse who loves his job.
Other pre-Derby races not to be missed:
Race 4- Souper Spectacular, Zenyatta’s baby brother
Race 7- Shackleford going 7 furlongs in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs
Race 9- Sassy Image going for back-to back wins in the Grade 1 Humana distaff
Race 10- Get Stormy going for back-to-back wins in the Grade 1 Turf Classic
Enjoy Derby Day, good luck if you are wagering, and safe trips to all our equine friends.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Fillies First
Oaks Day is here, and it’s lilies for the fillies.
Here’s my quick look at the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks.
It’s a full field and wide open.
On Fire Baby – 2 for 2 at Churchill, 2nd time Lasix, but does she want the extra distance?
Grace Hall – Already an Oaks winner at the distance and has a Grade 1 at Saratoga to boot. Was 2nd at Churchill last year. The deserving morning line fave.
Summer Applause - Harlan’s Holiday filly, coming in with a bullet and will love the added distance. (Is she really 15 to 1?)
Eden’s Moon – Baffert speedball from the West Coast.
Hard Not to Like – first time dirt
Broadway’s Alibi – A length from being undefeated in 5 starts. She is the speed of the speed and would love it wet.
Sacristy – One for one at Churchill, but will she stretch out?
Jemima’s Pearl – Has been Bodemeister’s workmate while at Churchill.
Believe You Can – Larry knows his fillies and has the Rosie factor.
And Why Not – yes, and why not? Talented filly put a line through last.
Karlory Vale – may have turned the corner, but is dirt her game?
Colonial Empress – great pedigree, but form shows nothing.
Amie’s Dini – a win over the track, very consistent, has some class
Yara – beat the chalk, but distance may be a problem
Summer Applause could be the one that benefits from the speed dual up front. Lots of speed in here which could set the race up for a filly who can relax and wait.
Broadway’s Alibi is legit speed and could take them all the way.
And Why Not may have grown into herself this year, and if she puts it all together could be a big threat.
Have a great Oaks Day!
Here’s my quick look at the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks.
It’s a full field and wide open.
On Fire Baby – 2 for 2 at Churchill, 2nd time Lasix, but does she want the extra distance?
Grace Hall – Already an Oaks winner at the distance and has a Grade 1 at Saratoga to boot. Was 2nd at Churchill last year. The deserving morning line fave.
Summer Applause - Harlan’s Holiday filly, coming in with a bullet and will love the added distance. (Is she really 15 to 1?)
Eden’s Moon – Baffert speedball from the West Coast.
Hard Not to Like – first time dirt
Broadway’s Alibi – A length from being undefeated in 5 starts. She is the speed of the speed and would love it wet.
Sacristy – One for one at Churchill, but will she stretch out?
Jemima’s Pearl – Has been Bodemeister’s workmate while at Churchill.
Believe You Can – Larry knows his fillies and has the Rosie factor.
And Why Not – yes, and why not? Talented filly put a line through last.
Karlory Vale – may have turned the corner, but is dirt her game?
Colonial Empress – great pedigree, but form shows nothing.
Amie’s Dini – a win over the track, very consistent, has some class
Yara – beat the chalk, but distance may be a problem
Summer Applause could be the one that benefits from the speed dual up front. Lots of speed in here which could set the race up for a filly who can relax and wait.
Broadway’s Alibi is legit speed and could take them all the way.
And Why Not may have grown into herself this year, and if she puts it all together could be a big threat.
Have a great Oaks Day!
Friday, April 27, 2012
The Derby Tree
One of my earliest Derby memories as a child was my Dad telling me the story about the Derby Tree. In 1961, he played Decidedly in the Winter Book for the following years’ Derby. (So I guess the Future Wager has been around for a long time.) Not sure how it was done back then, but I know my Dad didn’t jump on a plane and go to Vegas.
My best guess is-it involved a bookie.
The reason why he played the grey colt by the Derby winning sire, Determine, was supposedly something he heard, when having breakfast next to trainer Horatio Luro, the summer before on the Saratoga apron. What he heard and whether Mr. Luro was touting his two year olds, is anybody’s guess.
My father did like to tell a track story or two.
But whatever he heard, it prompted him to place a good wager on the colt.
He won a bundle on that Derby 50 years ago. One of the things he did with his winnings was to buy and plant a flowering tree that would be in bloom on Derby Day. It’s the first tree that bloomed in his yard each and every year, even before the Dogwoods. It has withstood a lot, and has seen better days, but it still blooms 10 days out, and heralds the coming of the most exciting two minutes in sports.
You can read about Decidedly’s record breaking Derby and also about how his jock picked up the mount, at the Kentucky Virtual Library. Partnered with Keeneland and the DRF, there are 3000 volumes of the Daily Racing Forms archived there.
My best guess is-it involved a bookie.
The reason why he played the grey colt by the Derby winning sire, Determine, was supposedly something he heard, when having breakfast next to trainer Horatio Luro, the summer before on the Saratoga apron. What he heard and whether Mr. Luro was touting his two year olds, is anybody’s guess.
My father did like to tell a track story or two.
But whatever he heard, it prompted him to place a good wager on the colt.
He won a bundle on that Derby 50 years ago. One of the things he did with his winnings was to buy and plant a flowering tree that would be in bloom on Derby Day. It’s the first tree that bloomed in his yard each and every year, even before the Dogwoods. It has withstood a lot, and has seen better days, but it still blooms 10 days out, and heralds the coming of the most exciting two minutes in sports.
You can read about Decidedly’s record breaking Derby and also about how his jock picked up the mount, at the Kentucky Virtual Library. Partnered with Keeneland and the DRF, there are 3000 volumes of the Daily Racing Forms archived there.
Friday, April 20, 2012
A "First-Saturday-in-May" Horse
Yes, I have been absent from blogging. Life, stuff, Twitter has gotten in the way of my posting. And still in birthday mode too. Me and Ruffian. It’s cool to celebrate your birthday with a famous filly.
I’m trying to focus in on the Lexington tomorrow.
But wait…did you know that this Blog’s Derby favorite, Union Rags worked a half over the poly at Keeneland this morning and galloped out in a minute? Just what you want to see 14 days out from the Big Day. Watch him work.
And while we’re at it, the movie star-handsome son of Dixie Union is indeed a movie star. An American Love Story, is very well-done and not to be missed. Take a Look
Sorry, coming down with a little Derby Fever.
Back to the Lexington. A mile and 1/16th on the poly, and really there are only two horses in here, that, should either win, could make it into the Derby field. One is Castaway, and the other is Morgan’s Guerilla .And while both maybe dreamin’ Derby, this is a tough race and a wide open affair.
Blog Favorite News Pending has chased some good ones. The son of Harlan’s Holiday is trying synthetic for the first time. If you can dismiss his Florida Derby, then he could run a big one.
Another colt by HH, is Holiday Promise. His lone start on poly was a good second in the Spiral. The Pletcher trained colt could move forward again.
Gold Megillah, by Purim (loved him) ran a bang-up second to the ultra game Flashy Dresser. Could be right there.
Summer Front is an undefeated colt (on turf) and going to poly for the first time. Connections think highly of him.
Longshot Joannesbourbon might be worth a look in the postparade. It’s a tall task after just breaking his maiden but he may be worth adding to a super. He is working lights out over the track and should love the stretch out.
Two Saturdays to the Run for the Roses. Is there a better time of year for racing fans?
I’m trying to focus in on the Lexington tomorrow.
But wait…did you know that this Blog’s Derby favorite, Union Rags worked a half over the poly at Keeneland this morning and galloped out in a minute? Just what you want to see 14 days out from the Big Day. Watch him work.
And while we’re at it, the movie star-handsome son of Dixie Union is indeed a movie star. An American Love Story, is very well-done and not to be missed. Take a Look
Sorry, coming down with a little Derby Fever.
Back to the Lexington. A mile and 1/16th on the poly, and really there are only two horses in here, that, should either win, could make it into the Derby field. One is Castaway, and the other is Morgan’s Guerilla .And while both maybe dreamin’ Derby, this is a tough race and a wide open affair.
Blog Favorite News Pending has chased some good ones. The son of Harlan’s Holiday is trying synthetic for the first time. If you can dismiss his Florida Derby, then he could run a big one.
Another colt by HH, is Holiday Promise. His lone start on poly was a good second in the Spiral. The Pletcher trained colt could move forward again.
Gold Megillah, by Purim (loved him) ran a bang-up second to the ultra game Flashy Dresser. Could be right there.
Summer Front is an undefeated colt (on turf) and going to poly for the first time. Connections think highly of him.
Longshot Joannesbourbon might be worth a look in the postparade. It’s a tall task after just breaking his maiden but he may be worth adding to a super. He is working lights out over the track and should love the stretch out.
Two Saturdays to the Run for the Roses. Is there a better time of year for racing fans?
Saturday, March 31, 2012
State of The Union
For those of us that did not win Mega Millions, it’s on to the second most exciting event of the day, the Florida Derby. It’s a day when the early Derby favorite Union Rags could make a huge statement on his march to Louisville.
It is a small, but talented field for three year olds with Derby dreams. And it’s all about Union Rags. Not ashamed to say that I fell for this horse early on and have not wavered an inch since then. Even in his lone defeat he ran a “winning” race. But three year olds this time of year need to continue to step forward. It is the only way to be ready for the grueling Triple Crown experience.
I see no reason why this horse will not be brilliant, yet again today. He has enough tactical speed and handiness, to be put anywhere he needs to be in the race. And I believe he has the scope and stamina to wear down horse late, if he needs to. On paper, his biggest competition looks to be El Padrino. He is a classy sort and has already shown that he that he loves a fight. You have to wonder though, how much the Risen Star took out of him.
Another horse and blog favorite in here is News Pending. One of two Romans’ trained horses; he has never won on dirt, but has won at the distance. His numbers keep improving and this could be a replay of the Fountain of Youth finish.
Here is a photo of Union Rags taken by his exercise rider Peter Brette via Twitter.
HRTV‘s Zoe Cadman did a great video report 10 days ago on a day in the life of Union Rags at the tranquil Palm Meadows training facility. It’s always interesting to see how a horse handles himself in his daily routine, and it's a little insight on his "state" of mind.
Enjoy the Florida Derby and have a "winning" day!
It is a small, but talented field for three year olds with Derby dreams. And it’s all about Union Rags. Not ashamed to say that I fell for this horse early on and have not wavered an inch since then. Even in his lone defeat he ran a “winning” race. But three year olds this time of year need to continue to step forward. It is the only way to be ready for the grueling Triple Crown experience.
I see no reason why this horse will not be brilliant, yet again today. He has enough tactical speed and handiness, to be put anywhere he needs to be in the race. And I believe he has the scope and stamina to wear down horse late, if he needs to. On paper, his biggest competition looks to be El Padrino. He is a classy sort and has already shown that he that he loves a fight. You have to wonder though, how much the Risen Star took out of him.
Another horse and blog favorite in here is News Pending. One of two Romans’ trained horses; he has never won on dirt, but has won at the distance. His numbers keep improving and this could be a replay of the Fountain of Youth finish.
Here is a photo of Union Rags taken by his exercise rider Peter Brette via Twitter.
HRTV‘s Zoe Cadman did a great video report 10 days ago on a day in the life of Union Rags at the tranquil Palm Meadows training facility. It’s always interesting to see how a horse handles himself in his daily routine, and it's a little insight on his "state" of mind.
Enjoy the Florida Derby and have a "winning" day!
Saturday, March 24, 2012
"Spiral"-ing Into Louisville
You have a little bit of everything in today’s Derby prep, the Grade 3 Spiral at 9 furlongs on the Turfway polytrack. It’s a $500,000 pot and the winner will take away enough graded earnings to dance the big dance in May. A nearly full field of 11 has shown up to try and get their golden ticket.
You have three- first- time- blinkered horses. The 1 horse is the North Cal shipper Russian Greek. The 8 horse, Coach Royal, is a maiden and also going turf to poly with a trainer switch. And the 11 horse is Stealcase, who has shown a sharp bullet since his last race, when breaking awkwardly.
There are two more Cal shippers, Handsome Mike and All Squared Away. The latter, not only has to ship, but is coming back in 9 days. Handsome Mike however, has had more than a month to re-coup from his OK finish in a Grade 3 and appears to have the most upside of these two, as he has a class edge.
Only two horses have ever had a race over the track. The PA –bred, Ill Conceived got beat a neck in the Battaglia, after going to the front in his first time on the stretch-out. It was a 5 horse field that day, and he will have to do more, this time. Mr. Prankster, however has shown a liking for the oval, with 2 wins from 3 starts, but he too, will have to move forward after his poor effort in the Battaglia.
Why is Red Jack in here? Well it’s the “coach” and you know how DWayne likes to be involved in the pre-Derby dances. The colt’s maiden breaker was his only start on turf (at 9 panels) and it is a longshot that he can reproduce a race like that again on poly.
The Graham Motion horse, Went The Day Well, looks interesting. Like the Proud Citizens and this horse may have a little talent. He showed he could perform well in England on various wet surfaces, and handled dirt just fine at Gulfstream. So he can run, he is versatile and, has the right connections. He IS coming in off just breaking his maiden 3 weeks ago and he will go to a synthetic track for the first time. The added distance should only help and he looks to have a good shot in here.
Tizanexpense is another interesting horse in here, if only because he has never had a clean, easy trip. Every race has had an excuse, including his maiden breaker, when the jock lost the whip. His breeding suggests he will love a little more ground, and if things finally go his way, he could be right there.
The two Pletcher horses round out the field and both look very live. Heavy Breathing has won at the distance and is coming in undefeated after winning two-for-two at Gulfstream. Not sure what was behind him though, but TP, with his arsenal of Derby types, knows exactly where to spot them.
The OTHER Pletcher horse, Holiday Promise, could be a sleeper in here. While he has run with lesser, a little more ground may suit him perfectly.
So like any Derby Prep, you have your pretenders and your contenders, everyone looking to get lucky on the right day, to catapult them into the Derby picture. Whoever wins this, will, with certainty, get a chance to go to Louisville.
You have three- first- time- blinkered horses. The 1 horse is the North Cal shipper Russian Greek. The 8 horse, Coach Royal, is a maiden and also going turf to poly with a trainer switch. And the 11 horse is Stealcase, who has shown a sharp bullet since his last race, when breaking awkwardly.
There are two more Cal shippers, Handsome Mike and All Squared Away. The latter, not only has to ship, but is coming back in 9 days. Handsome Mike however, has had more than a month to re-coup from his OK finish in a Grade 3 and appears to have the most upside of these two, as he has a class edge.
Only two horses have ever had a race over the track. The PA –bred, Ill Conceived got beat a neck in the Battaglia, after going to the front in his first time on the stretch-out. It was a 5 horse field that day, and he will have to do more, this time. Mr. Prankster, however has shown a liking for the oval, with 2 wins from 3 starts, but he too, will have to move forward after his poor effort in the Battaglia.
Why is Red Jack in here? Well it’s the “coach” and you know how DWayne likes to be involved in the pre-Derby dances. The colt’s maiden breaker was his only start on turf (at 9 panels) and it is a longshot that he can reproduce a race like that again on poly.
The Graham Motion horse, Went The Day Well, looks interesting. Like the Proud Citizens and this horse may have a little talent. He showed he could perform well in England on various wet surfaces, and handled dirt just fine at Gulfstream. So he can run, he is versatile and, has the right connections. He IS coming in off just breaking his maiden 3 weeks ago and he will go to a synthetic track for the first time. The added distance should only help and he looks to have a good shot in here.
Tizanexpense is another interesting horse in here, if only because he has never had a clean, easy trip. Every race has had an excuse, including his maiden breaker, when the jock lost the whip. His breeding suggests he will love a little more ground, and if things finally go his way, he could be right there.
The two Pletcher horses round out the field and both look very live. Heavy Breathing has won at the distance and is coming in undefeated after winning two-for-two at Gulfstream. Not sure what was behind him though, but TP, with his arsenal of Derby types, knows exactly where to spot them.
The OTHER Pletcher horse, Holiday Promise, could be a sleeper in here. While he has run with lesser, a little more ground may suit him perfectly.
So like any Derby Prep, you have your pretenders and your contenders, everyone looking to get lucky on the right day, to catapult them into the Derby picture. Whoever wins this, will, with certainty, get a chance to go to Louisville.
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