Why Not Endorsement?

There’s a very good group of older horses signed on for today’s Grade 2 Suburban at 1&1/8 on Belmont’s Big Sandy and it could turn out be THE race of the weekend.

Could it be that we are just seeing the best of the 5 yr old Endorsement?

On the Derby trail two years ago, this colt was injured and given 21 months off by the ultra conservative Bill Casner, formerly co-owner of WinStar farm. Perhaps reminiscent of another star of his, Well Armed, Endorsement seems to have come back to the races in excellent order. He managed to withstand some trouble in his last two, which tells me that he still has the will to win. Although defeated in his last, it was a game effort, and it could be that they ran him back a bit too quick. The horse is one of very few graded stakes horses that runs without Lasix and I admire Mr. Casners’ conviction. He is fortunate that he has such a high quality horse that does not seem to need the diuretic. He has now been freshened over at Keeneland, working seriously, every 7 days. Martin Garcia took him for a test drive in the Pimlico Special, and his numbers are improving.

12 to 1- Really???

OK, so it’s a tough race. The Pletcher entry is formidable. Both multiple stakes winners, Stay Thirsty is all class, And Caixa Electronica, all heart.

Buffum- lots of people on his bandwagon.

Hymn Book – the Donn was spectacular, but somewhat of an “in-and-outer”

Trickmeister – as speedy as they come

Mucho Macho Man – very capable

To Honor and Serve- very, very tough and also 9/5

There could very well be a little more upside to Endorsement, but he will have to run his very best to win. Will his class show up in today's Suburban?

It's A "Shore" Thing

In handicapping a horserace, there’s never a “sure” thing. Horseplayers are an optimistic group though, and each and every race is a puzzle we need to solve.

Monmouth Park, on the Jersey Shore, will host the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes this Saturday. This is one of two Grade 1’s at Monmouth, the other being the Haskell. The United Nations goes as the featured 11th race, at a mile and 3/8’s, on the turf. It is a “Win & You’re In” which means the winner gets an automatic berth into this year’s BC Turf.

Here’s my take at the short, but salty field for ThoroFan’s Handicapping Corner.

From inside out:
1. Turbo Compressor /Pletcher/Bravo, breaks from the inside, and one thing is “sure”, he is the speed of the race. The Florida-bred by Halo’s Image is 2 for 3 since trying turf. He has gotten better since the surface switch, and appears he will run all day. Has never been this far, but with Jersey Joe signed on, I see no other way for him to go , but to the front with his “come and catch me “ style.

2. Brilliant Speed, the Live Oak homebred is the class of this field. The son of Dynaformer and trained by Tom Albertrani, is a GR 1 winner on Keeneland’s polytrack, but has shown his ability to excel on the lawn. Though his speed isn’t “brilliant” he certainly has enough tactical speed to get a good position for his run down the lane. He has the newly West Coast-transplant Joel Rosario in the tack, and he has every chance to secure his first Grade 1 win on turf, with a win here.

3. Slim Shady, the West Coast invader has blossomed under the care of the young Simon Callaghan. He brings his rider, David Flores, in to ride. He will enjoy the distance, and has enough speed for his stalking style. But he did have to SHIP, and with the extremely hot weather, one wonders if he will bring his “A” game.

4. Al Khali is a horse I have followed since Norberto Arroyo rode him. ( And I think he’s been MIA for at least 3 years) He looked talented from the get go, and for the most part, always gives a decent account of himself. He has yet to win a “Big One”, but continues to pick up checks in those Grade1’s. His best efforts have been going a mile and a half. He definitely fits here to get a piece and maybe round out the exotics.

5. Freud’s Honor is a nice, consistent New Jersey bred, but looks seriously overmatched in here.

6. Eldaafer was the winner of the 2010 BC Marathon. We know the horse loves to run a distance of ground. He has run just 3 times this year, and did improve some in the Brooklyn last out finishing 2nd by 10 lengths to Redeemed, on dirt. His “glory days” may be behind him, however.

7. Air Support rounds out the field. Solis is aboard and it’s always hard to ignore a Shug McGaughey runner. He is coming off two troubled trips, including some crowding at the start in his last. He will appreciate the extra distance. Shug always spots them where they belong.

It will not be a surprise that the up-and-coming Turbo Compressor leads the field from “flag-fall” to “that’s all” like he did in the Colonial Cup. Should Slim Shady engage him early and try to put some pressure on him, the pace could get “hot”, and then they will both have to beware of Brilliant Speed, Air Supply and Al Khali, who will all be closing in the stretch.

Be conscious of any course changes if there’s any rain- there’s always a chance of a passing thunderstorm this time of year. Take note of paddock behavior – is anyone either “dull” or “washed-out?” Watch the warm-ups – do the horses look comfortable, are they striding out, do they look enthusiastic?

Never a sure thing, but handicapping is a great game. Good luck with all your wagers. Here’s hoping you have some fun, enjoy the races and cash some winning tickets!!!


For some interesting history on the United Nation Stakes, check out Historian Alan Carter's piece at ThoroFan.

From Royal Ascot to Frog Juice - The Good with the Bad

What a week for our sport! International racing took center stage at Royal Ascot and did not disappoint. THIS was the year to be there. Frankel decimated his opposition in the Queen Anne Stakes drawing off by 11, to prove that he may be, indeed, the best in the World. And the Queen of the Turf, Australia’s Black Caviar, came, saw and conquered in the Golden Jubilee, still undefeated with her 22-win record. While we really won’t know what her jock was thinking approaching the wire, she won, and that’s all there is to it. Rumors abound that she was not 100% herself going in, and what equine would be? with the travelling she had to endure to get there. But take nothing away from “Nelly”, she is a true champion.

And kudos to the Maryland Racing Commission as they have finally awarded Triple Crown winner Secretariat the Preakness Stakes record after 39 years. We all knew it was his, but it has finally become official. Better late-than never.

But as great a week that it was, racing's image did take a hit.

And how offenders will be handled is the next question. “Frog Juice”, or dermorphin, has reared its ugly head in Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico and quite possibly, Texas. New York has been testing this for several months, and no positives have been found.Frog juice is an ILLEGAL, powerful opiate. It is 40 times more powerful than morphine. It is dangerous to horses, and jockeys, not to mention, unfair to the wagering public.

Whoever is using this-needs to be ruled off FOR LIFE, no questions, and no second chances. Stiff penalties will rid the game of cheats and low-life. If Racing Commissions have the ability to do this, it must be done.

This is an opportunity to set an example. Those that use a drug like this drug don’t deserve to be anywhere near the game of horseracing.

Rag's Time

While this year’s Belmont was disappointing for some with the scratch of I’ll Have Another due to injury, it was thrilling for followers and fans of the Dixie Union colt, Union Rags. This blogger’s favorite since last year’s Champagne, he ran the gamest of races under a masterful ride by John Velazquez. Union Rags showed immense courage going inside the pace setter Paynter and was up in time, to win by a neck.

He joins a stellar group of Belmont winners that have won on June 9th, including the one and only Secretariat, and the filly Rags to Riches.

Fans of Union Rags knew his day would come. Even with the premature retirement of Derby –Preakness winner I’ll Have Another, there is still some exciting three year old racing ahead.





If you missed it...

The Racing Gods Will Decide

If you are a horse fan / handicapper, it’s safe to say that you believe in the Racing Gods.

How they do their job is a mystery.

But you can be sure they are working overtime this year.

With I’ll Have Another looking to become the 12th Triple Crown winner in history and the first since 1978, only Belmont’s mile and a half Big Sandy, stands in the way.

I’ll Have Another is a very good colt. He has tactical speed, the right racing style and a pedigree that says he can run all day. He has a famous stable pony, who has coached him, no doubt, and his young jockey is riding a huge wave of good fortune. His owner and trainer, though not without some controversy, have kept him seemingly healthy and happy.

The Belmont has always been known as the Test of Champions. And it is just that, in a year of a possible Triple Crown winner. It’s a grueling race. Most horses never want to go a mile and a half, but especially in the first half of their three year old year.

I’ll Have Another has never raced over the track. And, in what appears to be somewhat unconventional, has not had a work in three weeks. He has had 2 tough races, back to back, and the Belmont will be the most demanding. His jock has never ridden at Belmont, and although he will ride on Friday, will that be enough to get a feel for the mile and a half oval and those wide sweeping turns? Lastly, there are several talented opponents who are coming in fresh, could improve, and are legitimately good enough to upset.

Does any of that matter?

It will take an exceptional horse-an extraordinary horse-to get the job done,and win the Belmont.And if I’ll Have Another pulls it off, he will certainly deserve the Crown.

But it’s not up to us.

It’s all up to the Gods of Racing. And I wish I knew what they were thinking.

Enjoy the Belmont,the Test of Champions-and may the best horse win.

The Second Jewel

It’s the Third Saturday in May and that can only mean one thing. It’s Preakness Day and time to get your Preak-on!

Whatever that means.

You have a number of public handicappers saying it’s a two horse race. The Derby winner – I’ll Have Another – vs. the runner-up Bodemeister. Everyone else is running for third money.

Then you have the other half of the touts saying both horses have every right to bounce off their Derby efforts and it’s a good time to look for a new shooter who is moving in the right direction.

I think there’s another way to go. And his name is Creative Cause.

Consistent as they come, his 5th place finish in the Derby was still a good effort, despite some traffic problems and being 8 wide at the quarter pole. Yes he has been accumulating frequent flyer miles, but if he was not a good shipper, I doubt they would have put him through that. He was beaten a nasty nose by I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby and beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe, so he certainly fits with the “top two”. There should be plenty of pace for him to stalk and pounce.

The second jewel could be his today.

Across the pond, in moments, will be the 2012 debut of the “best horse in the world”. That would be Frankel. In the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury, we may see him stalk the speed of his half brother, Bullet Train, who it is said, will be used as a rabbit. A year older and stronger, Frankel’s race should be exciting to watch.

Frankel could indeed be today's Saturday Afternoon Horse.

Derby Day

I love the Kentucky Derby for all of its elegant traditions, historic importance, and unbridled excitement. I also love it for the wagering opportunities.

The best horse does not always win the Derby. But in the end, the roses go the best horse, on the day. So sometimes you have to use a little more imagination when wagering.
With a 20 horse field, all kinds of things can happen.
It’s a tough race to win, and a horse and rider need a tremendous amount of racing luck.
This is one of the most formidable fields in quite some time. You can study pedigree, analyze workouts and gallop outs, way of going ,confirmation, mental attitude and have all the inside info from the backside, but with three year olds in the spring that have never run the classic distance…well, no one knows what any of them will do when faced with that last extra furlong.
Still have more studying to do. But I will tell you who I am alive to in the Oaks -Derby Doubles wager.

Union Rags – loved him since last year. Not sure if daddy Dixie Union will get him there, but he has the class, the mind and the willingness to get the job done. Has been educated in previous starts, and for a big colt, he is pretty handy. Has tactical speed to stay within range. Had the best work of Derby week and is sitting on “ready”. Has the right connections, and J Lep will make no mistakes.

Dullahan - Respect Dale Romans. Talented colt can run on anything. Will need to work out a trip from off the pace. And that’s never easy to do.

Daddy Nose Best – Longshot play. May be a much better horse on dirt, has shown gameness. He likes to fight.

Alpha – this horse has always impressed me and I don’t think we’ve seen his best. Has had a small setback, and I hope his gate behavior has improved. But he has the class and I think he will get overlooked.

Gemologist – Undefeated, son of the great Tiznow, out of a Mr. Prospector mare. Stamina over speed. A lot to like. Connections will have him primed to do his best.

Creative Cause – Played my ticket early, before all the “buzz.” If he’s 100%, he will run his race. Never off the board, he’s a good feeling horse who loves his job.

Other pre-Derby races not to be missed:
Race 4- Souper Spectacular, Zenyatta’s baby brother
Race 7- Shackleford going 7 furlongs in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs
Race 9- Sassy Image going for back-to back wins in the Grade 1 Humana distaff
Race 10- Get Stormy going for back-to-back wins in the Grade 1 Turf Classic

Enjoy Derby Day, good luck if you are wagering, and safe trips to all our equine friends.