Showdown on the Gulfstream Lawn

The entries are out for the Grade 1 (Kitten’s Joy) Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. A short field, as expected, but an exciting race, none the less, for it looks to be a showdown between 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and last year’s superior grass horse, Point of Entry.

A big Thanks to ThoroFan, and the Handicapper's Corner for giving me the platform to express my handicapping opinion!

This will probably be the last start in North America for Animal Kingdom. His schedule this year, after this race, is the Dubai World Cup and perhaps a race at Royal Ascot. He will then retire to the breeding shed in Australia, and ship there in September. If he wins all 3 this year, could he be the only horse to win 3 Grade 1’s on 3 different continents in the same year? I will let someone else do the research on that, but should he get it done, it would be quite a feat.

Point of Entry is starting out his campaign for the year with an eye on the Breeder's Cup at the end of the year, and perhaps a crack at Horse of the Year.

Here’s the field:

From the rail out:

1.    1.)  Filmmaking is by Storm Cat out of the brilliant grass mare Film Maker. The Courtland Farm homebred has only one win out of 17 lifetime starts. He is getting in light, but he would have to run the race of his life to get any part of this.

2.   2.)  Point of Entry, royally bred son of Dynaformer, and a Phipps homebred, he  is trained by Hall of Famer Shug Mc Gaughey and ridden by Hall of Famer, John Velazquez. May prefer more ground, but has the tactical speed to get a good position early. Will be fit and ready to roll.

3.    3.) Salto (IRE) is the Todd Pletcher entry.  He is another home-bred, (Wertheimer & Frere) He looks like a second stringer to me, but gets weight from the top three.  May be in the mix early, but don’t think he’s good enough to win.

4.    4.) Unbridled Command is a NY bred, owned and bred by Lewis Lakin (with Sequel TBs) looking for his 6^th –yes 6^th- win in a row. He is trained by Tom Bush who won this race last year with Get Stormy. His last race was the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby, where he found a way to win in a 14 horse field. It’s another step up to run against the top 2, but you can’t really fault a horse that does nothing but win. This is a class test for him.

5.   5.)  Where's the Baby is is a consistent allowance horse, and another homebred (Richard Sherman) He has never run against this quality, but along with the top two, has won over the course.  I still think you will need a search warrant to find him.

6.    6.) Animal Kingdom,-the Team Valor homebred- is the big horse, the fan favorite- and he has been training up a storm. It will be a treat to see him run, but bittersweet too, because this looks like the last time his fans will get to see his brilliance. He finished 2^nd in the Breeder’s Cup Mile to Horse of the Year Wise Dan, in his last start, with a very troubled trip.

Many times the “obvious” doesn’t turn out the way you think, especially in handicapping, but for me, I think it’s pretty evident that we are looking at a two-horse race. Both Animal Kingdom and Point of Entry are top class horses, both have won over the Gulfstream lawn, and they are both in it to win it. Many times , with a short field, it comes down to a "jockey's race".  POE’s regular rider Johnny V knows his competition well, as he has ridden AK and won on him before. You can be sure he will have his eye on him as the race unfolds.  And take nothing away from Joel Rosario who has fit in nicely with the East Coast elite. “First-time” Rosario is a betting angle that has been very profitable.

 I see no reason why both these horses won’t fire, and I can see the race going either way.

 I think the margin will be tight. If I had to take a stand~ and isn't what handicapping is all about (!)~ I think maybe JV could make the difference. Either way, this will be a fun race to watch!

Good luck to all the runners, run fast, be safe and may the best horse win!

Greetings of The Season

BC TURF ~ Will America Take the Cup?

Some thoughts on the 12 furlong Breeder’s Cup Turf for ThoroFan’s HandicappingCorner

 

 

 

Can an American-based horse win the Breeder’s Cup Turf this year? Well we do have a very good chance, and it would be great to keep the prize “at home” but it won’t be easy. It’s always an International event and though Euros rarely send their very best, their second string is usually still better than what America has to offer. And last year’s winner is back. Let’s break this down.

Euros:

 St Nicholas Abbey - He is back again, and is eligible to join only two other double turf winners in Conduit and High Chaparral. The son of Montjeu, he was Europe’s best 2 year old in 2009. The O’Brien trainee has earned over 4 million dollars and is a multiple group/grade1 winner. His last race in the Arc, was not good however, but mostly due to the extremely soft footing. And while he won’t get the Churchill turf, he will get the firm Santa Anita turf. He is used to shipping, and has his familiar jock, the young, Joseph Obrien. Trainer has said “He loves fast ground” That being said, he has a good chance to repeat.

Shareta - This 4 year old filly, owned and bred by the Aga Khan, has won 2 Group 1’s this year, against her own kind. She was second to the Arc winner Danedream, while beating Snow Fairy last year, but all she could manage was a 9^th this year in the same race. However she beat the Arc winner, one race back in the Prix Vermeille. According to her handlers, she too, did not care for the soft Arc footing this year. They have shipped her here to get firm turf, and she will get her preferred surface. She has a lot of class, drops some weight and loves the distance. She had a very nice gallop over the dirt on Tuesday. Connections say “you can put her anywhere in the race.” I like her chances.

Cogito – Four out of his 5 total starts have been in Europe. He has had one race in this country, a 4^th in the Jamaica at Belmont, and he was first time Lasix and first time blinkers. He is coming in with very little to suggest that he can be a factor. Would have to improve immensely.

Treasure Beach – This son of Galileo is a world traveler. He has not won a race this year, but most recently was second to Point of Entry in the 6 horse Turf Classic. Another trained by Obrien.

 Japan:

Trailblazer – This horse gets better as the distance gets longer and has hit the board in some top Japanese races. He had a very nice prep over the Santa Anita course.

West Coast:

Slim Shady - Three wins over the course, he is capable of setting the fractions, or sitting just off it. He is consistent, but has never won a Grade1. His work on Sunday was less than stellar though; as he went 5/8’s in 1.01 and tired badly, with no gallop out, according to the DRF. But that was on the main track.

East Coast:

 Little Mike - Dale Romans took his time in determining which of his horses would run in the Turf. And then he entered both.  Speedball Little Mike will more than likely be contesting the pace. And going downhill in the first part of the race, will make that pace a little more heated. He is a remarkable little horse, but has never been the distance. He and Dullahan both galloped Wednesday for the first time over the downhill course and seemed to handle it. He will go as far as he can.

Dullahan - Roman’s other horse has never won a race on turf. He is a confirmed synthetic specialist, winning the Pacific Classic; in his only start against older, while beating the fave in 2012 Classic, Game on Dude. He has performed well on firm turf and he will be closing late. If connections think this is the spot for him, then maybe it is?

Kindergarden Kid – This 4 year old by Dynaformer, has turned his career around since being gelded. And the Dynaformers’ tend to improve as they mature. At 30-1, he could get a piece.

Optimizer – Well bred Lucas charge, finally found life after a dull Classics campaign, when switched to turf.  Will probably go to the lead, but would have to improve a ton to compete with these. However,  he is the only horse in the race that is sired by a Breeder’s Cup Turf winner in English Channel.

Turbo Compressor – Pletcher horse seems to do his best when he gets the lead, which won’t be an easy task in here, and with Little Mike and Optimizer drawn outside of him, it’s not likely.  But he is 1 of 3 in here that has had a start over the Santa Anita turf course.

Point of Entry – Dynaformer colt coming in off 5 wins, the last 3 being in Grade 1’s. He has done nothing wrong so far, and is the best chance for the US to take this prestigious race. He has the one post which will work to his favor in saving ground. He loves to hear his feet rattle and will get the surface he excels on.  He disliked the soft going last time in the Turf Classic, yet still showed class and determination to win and beat Treasure Beach and Kindergarden Kid, two that he faces in here. If there’s any knock on this horse, it would be the mediocre competition he has faced.

If the Euros have shipped well, both St. Nicholas Abbey and the filly Shareta, appear to be the class of the field. Point of Entry, however, has just gotten so good, and always seems to work out a great trip.  As far as the outsiders, the well- bred Optimizer has some upside and Kindergarden Kid could hit the board.

Early Thoughts on Super Saturday

 

It’s Super Saturday at Belmont Park and  here  are my early thoughts. This is before the scratches, changes and precise track and course conditions, but you gotta start somewhere.

 

Beldame… I look for It’s Tricky to sit behind Cash for Clunkers, who should be the early speed, and then get first run on Royal Delta to prevail at the finish. Let’s hope she breaks well.

 

 Kelso… Word is Shack WILL run. Will the track be totally dried out for the 3:30 Post time? If it is, then he’s my horse. 

 

Vosburgh… Maybe Rothko is the horse in here. Runs very well off a freshening, and this son of Arch may just   love Big Sandy.

 

Flower Bowl…. Love Nahrain. She should enjoy the soft ground, she’s dropping 12 pounds off her last. We know she can ship and run well, and she picks up JV.

 

Turf Classic… How many times am I going to let Little Mile fool me? He can run over anything. He is looking for his 12^th win in 20 starts, and he will go as far as he can. Roman’s other horse, Finnegan’s Wake could be the one to upset his stablemate, with his closing kick. Has had trouble in last two.

 

Jockey Club Gold Cup….Appears that Fort Larned is training great. Think the Broad Brush on the bottom will get him there.

Good luck to all today..it's a great day of racing!

 

 

Clarifying The Point

My analysis of the Sword Dancer Invitational for the Handicapper’s Corner @ThoroFan and why the Black & Cherry colors could have a big afternoon.
One of two Grade 1’s at Saratoga on Saturday, let’s take a look at the 38^th running of the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at a mile and a half on the grass. It is most certainly a stepping stone to the BC Turf in the fall.

From the rail out:

Al Khali - Six year old rig, trained by Bill Mott, he has earned $750,000 without ever winning a Grade 1. While he’s a useful sort, he has never won at the distance.  

Point of Entry – Co- highweight, in with 123, he is picking up 5 lbs from his last effort. Coming off 3 straight victories, including the Grade 1 Man ‘O War, he has the services of Hall of Famer John Velazquez.  Great family and the Dynaformers only get better with age. He is two-for-two at the distance and is, without a doubt, the horse to beat.

Tahoe Lake (Brz.) – Eligible for NW 3, but this horse gets better as the distances get longer. Tough spot, but he always finds a way to hit the board. He has been beaten by the top choice every time they have met (twice at equal weights) and now gets 7 lbs from that one.   He would have to take a step up.

Newsdad – The OTHER Mott horse, who has won twice at the distance, including the Grade 2 Pan American, (4 horse field) this horse has shown signs of talent from day one, and finally showed some consistency at Gulfstream this winter. This will be a second start off a freshening, with a rider switch to Rosario. 

Game Ball – Don’t want to criticize a winner of 10 of 22 races, but don’t think this Grade 1 is the spot for this former claimer.

Center Divider – Second to Point of Entry when leading the way in the Man ’O War, after a 3 month freshening. He has been beaten by others in here. Has Rosie in the saddle, likes to relax on the engine, but may not be the only one up front.

Hailstone – Always tries, but doesn’t appear to want to go this far with Grade 1 types.

Brilliant Speed – the other Dynaformer and I have always thought highly of this million dollar Grade 1 winner on synthetic. Good third in the 2011 BC Turf, but has yet to run back to that effort. HE IS one-for-one at Saratoga however, and gets a rider switch. Could be a factor and gets in light.

Turbo Compressor - He is the speed, but has never been this far. Breaking from the outside he will have to use a little bit of that speed to secure his position. He is 3 for 4 on turf, including the grade 1 United Nations. Is the co-highweight with 123, and is Pletcher- trained- but can he hang on?

The Pick: Point of Entry

Point of Entry is coming into this race off 3 wins and his numbers are improving with every race. By Dynaformer out of Matlatcha Pass, by Seeking the Gold, he is a half to multiple Grade 1 winner Pine Island, and his dam is a full sister to Stakes winners Pleasant Home and Country Hideaway.  He is bred every which way for turf, for distance and to be a top class racehorse. If the race unfolds like the Man ’O War did, he should be stalking a moderate pace with his tactical speed, and will once again, make his move on the leader(s). This horse looks like the real deal and with a win here, he will be on his way to the Breeder’s Cup Turf this fall. If you are looking to play any exotics I would look to the horses that have been successful at the distance. Most modern day American horses want no part of a mile and a half. Look to those who have shown that they do.

Trainer Shug McGaughey, with primary owner Phipps Stable, could have a big weekend with 3 horses in 3 Grade 1’s on Saturday, all with good chances. The improving filly Sea Island looks to step up and stretch out in the Alabama and Boisterous has a very good look in the Arlington Million, especially with some “give” in the ground.  A win by Point of Entry in the Sword Dancer, could start a pretty nice day for the black and cherry colors of the Phipps family, one of the last breeding/racing dynasties left in this country. Good luck if you are wagering and safe trips to all our equine friends!

A Little Karma and the Fourstardave

The Fourstardave Handicap is on tap for Saturday at Saratoga. It is a Grade 2 for 3 year olds and up, over the inner turf course. The race has always been run at a mile and 1/16th, but the distance has been changed this year to a mile. The track record for the original distance is 1:38.91, from 1991, set by – you guessed it- Fourstardave.

Previously known as the Daryl’s Joy, (and while no horse deserves to have his name taken away from a prestigious stake – as racetracks frequently do) , it was renamed the Fourstardave after he won it twice. The NY bred won a race at the Spa, every year from 1987 to 1994. Remarkable indeed, and because Fourstardave “owned” the track for so many years and was such a fan favorite, he was given the nickname the “Sultan of Saratoga.”

NYRA take note: Don’t ever change the name of this race.

Fourstardave started 99 times, with 21 wins, 18 seconds and 16 thirds, with 15 of those wins on turf. He accumulated over a million and a half in earnings. At the age of 12 he participated in the High Hope Steeplechase, at the Kentucky Horse Park, and finished second, for charity. He even has a street named after him, next to Siro’s restaurant.

At the age of 17, he was preparing for New York Showcase Day, in which he was to make an appearance in the post parade. He suffered a heart attack, and the son of Compliance out of Broadway Joan was laid to rest at Clare Court. That in itself was an honor, as he is one of only three horses ever to be buried there.

This year’s renewal of the Fourstardave is contentious.

Let’s take a look from the rail out.

Data Link – Janney owned, Shug trained, this colt by War Front is a Grade 1 winner on turf. He has never run over the Spa turf however, but is coming off a win at Monmouth and has been freshened up for this. Nice maintenance works since then, with a bullet work last Sunday. He is sharp, but will need to get the trip and the pace should set up well for him. He is the high weight with 121 lbs, and goes back to former rider, Solis. More on this, later….

Wise Dan – This million dollar earner is a versatile sort, with Graded Stakes wins on dirt, turf and synthetic. He can just flat out run on anything. Another that has been freshened; he sports a bullet from July 30th of 58:2, best of 52 turf works that morning. He has tactical speed to sit right behind the pacemaker. He secures the services of Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who is a neck shy of 4 wins in a row on him.

Get Stormy - He is the class of the field, with money won and Grade 1 Stakes wins. He won this race back in 2010, and his connections would love to win it again. He loves to run and loves to go to the front. He has 4 wins and a second from 5 tries at the Spa. He is coming off a tough beat to Data Link at Monmouth but he is coming into this sharp and ready. Shortening back up, this horse is the speed of the speed and never easy to get by.

Guy’s Reward – This Dale Romans’ trainee has finally come into his own, with 3 wins in a row, against lesser. He is a tryer, and always has a nice kick in the end. Do not leave out of exotics.

Right One – He is a Clement trainee, and this distance seems to suit. Not sure if he’s the “right one”, but he will be a little price, and he gets in light. Never underestimate C.C. He and jock Julien Leparoux have been clicking at this meet.

Surfrider – Trained by Eddie Kenneally, his best efforts have been going shorter. He is lightly raced, and his last win was a conditioned allowance race, but another trainer that you can not underestimate. This colt was well thought of in France last year, and was 3rd to Goldikova‘s second, in the Prix de la Foret. He will be a price in here, gets in light and could light up the tote board.

Corporate Jungle – He is one-for-one over the Saratoga lawn. Trained by Chad Brown, he is a consistent sort. He did not disgrace when going to the West Coast for the Grade 1 Shoemaker mile. Might appreciate being back on home turf.

Upgrade – Colt by 2005 Horse of the Year, St. Liam, he has been brought along slowly by trainer Michelle Nihei. Draw a line through the Fort Marcy, when he encountered soft turf and he is a sleeper in here. Add to that, the addition of the hot riding Joel Rosario. Worth a look at a price.

Yield Bogie –Sturdy eight year old, winless in two years, but coming in with a bullet work. Could catch a piece with a well-timed ride, but this is a tough bunch.

Crossbow – MTO- nice Darley colt, will only start if race is taken off the turf.

That being said, the weather forecast is calling for some rain. Always check the turf condition, if the race stays on. And always take the MTO seriously, if the race comes off the turf and onto the dirt.

You have some proven class horses (Data Link, Get Stormy, Wise Dan) that on any given day could be 1-2-3 in here, in any order. Corporate Jungle is turning out to be a very nice horse, Upgrade has the potential to improve, Surfrider and Right One are the question marks. Guy’s Reward can pick up the pieces.

I may play this race looking for a little jockey “karma”. This weekend, John Velazquez will finally be inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame. He has ridden both Data Link and Upgrade to victories, but yet is aboard Wise Dan, once again. He has won SEVEN Fourstardaves’, and his father-in-law, Leo O’Brien, was the trainer of the “Sultan”. The weekend might just belong to Johnny V and I think he has a good chance to win this race for the eighth time aboard Wise Dan.

Spa Daze

Saratoga, one of the premier meets in the American TB flat racing year, is about to begin. Though always called “the August place to be” it’s actually turned into the July-August-through Labor Day only place to witness the best racing offered in the country, maybe the world. There is no other track quite like Saratoga, with its’ rich history, huge purses, and a constant parade of fashionably-bred two year old colts and fillies, starting out their promising careers.

The magic that is Saratoga fills the air and is the most intoxicating at trackside, in the early morning hours.Whether you are at the main track, or across the street at Oklahoma, the energy is invigorating. Horses go out in sets, often accompanied by trainers. There are workouts on the turf at Oklahoma, several days a week. Horses are excited to be there, as are most of the exercise riders. You can see it, you can hear it, and you can feel it. There’s happy chatter; horses are feeling healthy and strong and looking to do more. Spring water may have been what brought people here a hundred years ago, but there is something about the cool Adirondack air that just brings out the best in horses and in people. If workouts lasted all day long, I don’t think I would ever leave. To me, it’s the best part of the day. It’s electric and soothing at the same time, and it’s what makes the Saratoga experience so special.

My a.m. routine at Saratoga seldom varies. I usually leave the track around 9:30, but it’s never easy. If I stick to plan, I try to get in a quick walk through downtown, maybe - a stop into Impressions or Saratoga Saddlery for a look see, and most definitely a little shopping at Putnam Market for some goodies to bring to the track. Amazing how hunger grabs you right after the first race! I like to get back to the track before noon, so I can position my chair in the back yard near the paddock, weather permitting. It’s the time for me to connect with friends, many that I haven’t seen in a year. It’s fun to people watch, as well as watching horses schooling in the paddock before the races begin. That hour or so before the first race is the best time to settle in, and reflect on how lucky I am that I made another year at the Spa. Oh yes, there is the wagering, and it takes a sharp eye and a knowledge of pedigree to come out ahead at the Spa.…But with all the betting we do year round now, it truly takes a back seat to how it feels to be at Saratoga for a day of racing. Nothing beats live racing, especially here. So cancel your NYT for the next 6 weeks, forget who was leading trainer for the Belmont spring meet (yes, there should be an * by his name) and let’s not hear the name “Cuomo” till after Labor Day. You are not allowed to utter the word “Lasix” unless it’s “FTL”. Leave horseracing’s woes behind for the next 6 weeks and enjoy the magic that you can only find at the Spa.